How much do we need the incumbent rule? ABC this morning said that as of

[jezebel]

now in the WaPo/ABC tracking poll the undecideds were breaking Bush 42, Kerry 41.
If that holds true and they split right down the middle, instead of breaking heavily for Kerry, should the newly registered be enough to put Kerry over the top?

[Chiyo-chichi]

1. I don't believe that poll.

[sonicx]

2. "undecideds were breaking Bush 42, Kerry 41."

please clarify. i don't get what you're saying.

[jezebel]

3. sorry, they were talking about how few undecideds there are and that they

are finally starting to make up their mind. George Stephenopolous said that in their poll (the WaPo/ABC daily tracking poll) the "undecideds" who were now making up their minds were going for Bush 42, Kerry 41.

[sonicx]

4. oh. well, the WP poll doesn't really have many undecideds anyway.

right now their poll just has 2%. Kerry led yesterday, but it will probably be a tie today.

Don't sweat tracking polls too much. They're roller coasters. Kerry's fine as like as it's close. WP had Bush up 3 in 2000's final poll.

:)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. This Is Frustrating..

We are getting into some really arcane territory..

Undecideds who break in the final weekend break more in favor of the challenger than undecideds who break in the preceding week...

Who knows?


I know this race is going to be close....