I'm betting Kerry takes it with 60%..

[radwriter0555]

I also predict an historical attendance at the election booth; more new democrats than ever in US history, voting to oust bush.

I also predict more Republicans than ever in US history crossing party lines to unseat bush.

Anyone else have any prognostications?

The drumbeat is there. Let's be kind and support those who are stepping across the lines to do the right thing. Welcome all comers with open arms and graciousness.

We're almost to the finish line... can you feel it?

[trumad]

1. Over 2 million have voted early in Florida

That's a 1/3 more than in 2000. We're seriously motivated....

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. Trumad. is there any where to go to get a breakdown in the

counties?

[DaveinMD]

2. no one will win 60 percent

Reagan didn't even get 60 percent in 1984. The most any candidate can get is 53 percent.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Was About To Say That...

Johnson and Nixon got over 60%....

[ROH]

7. The most any candidate *can* get ...

How can 53% be claimed as the most any candidate *can* get?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Considering The Last Time A Dem Got 50% Of The Vote Was 76 He's Not

Far Off...

[ROH]

16. OK...

but that does not mean that 53% (as originally mentioned) is a limit for any candidate.

Edited: for clarity

[DaveinMD]

27. the electorate is so divided right now

that its almost impossible to break that 53 percent threshold. By the way, that's what Bush Sr. got against Dukakis. And that was a landslide.

[AmerDem]

26. Johnson received 60% in 1964

if i'm not mistaken.

[radwriter0555]

32. But, this is GEORGE W. BUSH, the LEAST popular president in WORLD history.

the uprising against him and his nefarious PNAC regime is unprecedented.

We have the power of the internet, the NEW communication tool where the truth is self evident and at your fingertips.

[Nederland]

35. Please

Let's dispense with the Repuke like hyperbole...

[rock]

5. Actually, I've been predicting 60-40 for months now

The "win" that bushsucks* had in 2000 is going to cost them dearly.

[AmerDem]

6. That might be the real % but you need to figure in repuke voter fraud

So my guess has been Kerry still takes the popular vote by 3% and in the low to mid 300 range for electoral college.


BTW, for what it's worth the only time (if i'm not mistaken) that a USA president has received at least 60% of the popular vote was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

[wishlist]

8. Historic high turnout is a given, I would be thrillled with Kerry at 51%

This runup to election is so nerve-wracking. I just hope Kerry and Edwards have 5 more days of positive media coverage until Tuesday.

I read that S.C. has 38,000 newly registered voters, the majority are non-white with 16,000 registered as Democrat and 12,000 Republican with the rest as Independent. This kind of a trend expanded to many more states, and more Democrat leaning states ought to bode well for the election.

[cubsfan forever]

47. I would be completely

satisfied with 51%. Huge voter turnouts will make it much more difficult to steal the election again. But they will try, man will they try!

Professor 2

[lakeguy]

9. 67 K, 33 B

}(

sorry, that's the coffee talkin:) maybe without all the rethugs cheating Kerry could get in the high 50s.

[Butterflies]

11. I've been thinking the same thing

We now know the polls are cooked, so it's possible that Kerry has a significant lead like that.

I'd absolutely LOVE for that to happen so the assholes in my conservative state would get a strong taste of defeat for a change. I'd never take my Kerry bumpersticker off of my car!

[MsTryska]

12. Yup. And everyone's gonna be rockin the Black Hoodie!

Kerry in a Landslide.

People just don't mobilize in so many ways, when they are happy with the staus quo.


Do you remember any entertainers making anti-gore songs? Or anti-gore statements?


Were there places like DU and Moveon and a whole host of others doing whatever they could?

Were Brits ever starting letter-writing campaigns?

dubya's got a snowballs chance in hell.

[Skittles]

13. well, I do NOT believe the 50/50 thing

they're telling us after the past four years and all the damage done NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE 2000? I just cannot believe that. Rad, I think it's the younger voters who will save us, I really do. I've never seen so many young people pumped to vote in all my years. And they are politically SAVVY too - very impressive.

[ezekiel333]

15. Your Right!

It is not close, that's just the bought and paid for spin machine at work. Kerry will win 60%.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Just Have To Say This

Sometimes people on the left are as reactionary as people on the right...

They only talk and listen to people who think like themselves and have their own opinions shouted back at them...

That's why you have yahoos who think we found WMDs in Iraq and Saddam planned 9-11...


This is a deeply divided country....


I hope and pray Kerry wins but a Kerry landslide is about as likely as Bush finding a brain....


For every person who thinks Bush is the anti-Christ there's another who thinks he's the Messiah...

[tcfrogs]

22. Great post

I totally agree with your points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Some Thanks To Maureen Dowd

She once wrote about Rush's followers who affectionately call themselves dittoheads...

Why anybody would take pride in being a slavish follower of a talk show host is beyond me...


She said the success of Rush's show can be attributed to the fact that his followers like to have their own ideas shouted back at them...

[TwilightZone]

17. I'd be perfectly happy with 49/49/2, as long as Kerry wins

270+ electoral votes in the process.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

18. Me Too. (nt)

[txindy]

19. I'll go with that 60-40 prediction. Or very close to it, anyway.

:toast: :toast:

[MissouriTeacher]

20. Argh! Kerry ain't gettin' 60%!

Sorry guys, I'm all for optimism, and I do believe we're going to win, but Kerry getting 60% of the vote is just not likely at all.

There are A LOT of people who will vote for Bush no matter what. I know, I live and work near these people.

I will gladly eat my words if Kerry does win in a huge fashion, but I don't see it happening.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Exactly-See My Post...

I love the Democratic party but I live in the real world...

I am a small businessman in Central Florida... I never discuss politics with my clients because most of them are Pukes...

[Jack from Charlotte]

28. I agree. Here's what's going to happen.....

If the last poll says it's Kerry 48, AWOL 47 with 5 undecided then no more than 1 percentage point will be for Nadar and "other." That leaves 4 other undecided points. 3 will break for Kerry and 1 for AWOL which would make the final Kerry 51, AWol/moron 48 and about 1 point for Nadar/other.

A +3 point margin will win the Electoral Vote and be enough room to cover for Repug fraud.

As long as AWOL/moron is under 48%, he can't win.

[Katha]

43. You're absolutely right

I have a feeling that's going to happen -- and I'm perfectly fine with it. As long as Kerry wins -- I don't care with what percentage.

[rocktivity]

23. I'm guessing in the low to mid-fifites

especially after the Nickelodeon poll.

:headbang:
rocknation

[dolstein]

24. I'm betting the Cardinals win the World Series

Frankly, I like my odds more than yours.

[quaoar]

25. 52-46-2

60 percent would be a landslide of huge proportions.

Here's some perspective:

1932: FDR 57.4%, Hoover 39.6%
1936: FDR 60.8%, Landon 36.5%
1940: FDR 54.7%, Wilkie 44.8%
1944: FDR 53.4%, Dewey 45.9%
1964: LBJ 61.1%, Goldwater 38.5%
1972: Nixon 60.7%, McGovern 37.5%
1980: Reagan 50.7%, Carter 41%, Anderson 6.6%
1984: Reagan 58.8%, Mondale 40.6%

[hinachan]

30. Why the electoral college sucks

1984: Reagan 58.8%, Mondale 40.6%

Yet Mondale only won Minnesota and D.C. in the electoral college.

That's millions of people who voted for Mondale, and whose votes didn't count.

Lest the Repugs think the EV's work for them, consider this:

Every time California goes to the Dems, that's a whole lotta Republican votes that didn't count....

[quaoar]

31. I live in Alabama

So technically my vote for Kerry won't count for much.

But it counts to me.

[theboss]

34. That's faulty logic

Those votes counted; they just lost.

By this logic, my RBI double in 1989 baseball game didn't "count" because my team still lost 8-4.

[kiahzero]

41. Their votes didn't count where it mattered,

All of the people that voted for Mondale in states other than Minnesota and DC could have stayed home, and the final outcome would not have changed.

This is different from your example: In your example, had you not batted in that run, your team would have lost 8-3, rather than 8-4. The final outcome would change.

Even in Texas, over 30% of the population supports Kerry. But those votes don't matter at all, and voting for Kerry is merely a symbolic action, because there is no way Texas is going to Kerry.

[theboss]

33. I'll be happy with Clinton's 43 percent if the electoral college goes righ

You are on serious drugs if you think either candidate is cracking 52.5 percent.

[txindy]

36. Anyone remember what the percentages were when Reagan beat Mondale?

He took all but Minnesota and DC, right? I can't recall the final percentages, though. That's the split I'm looking for in this election, though, for Kerry to end up with Reaganesque (in that one instance) numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. Reagan Got 59%...

which is what he was polling at the end...

Kerry is not polling anywhere close....

[txindy]

42. The polling methodologies currently used are obsolete.

They will need to be readjusted after this election and updated continuously. The only reason the current polls are being flung so far, so often, and so wide is that the pollsters are trying to preserve their jobs. Their believability after this election will crater and those jobs may well be lost due to their own vociferous efforts at touting incomplete numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. The Problem With Folks On The Left And The Right

is that they only talk to people who think like themselves and get their own opinions shouted back at them.....

That's why some yahoos think Iraq had WMDS and Saddam was behind 9-11 and some well intentioned DUers discard all the empirical evidence and predict a Kerry landslide...

Polls have been doing a pretty good job of predicting the presidential elections for the last fifty or so years... I'm not prepared to assign them to the asheap of history based on an ideological whim..

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm



The chances of Kerry winning 59% of the vote and a Reagan, Nixon, or Johnson like landslide are virtually impossible...

[txindy]

48. That is too funny.

:eyes: Because, yeah, I have a big problem hanging out with so many 'lefties' here in Texas. Especially since I'm not of the Left or the Right.

To find out exactly just how wrong old polling methods are in today's world, read this: http://www.salon.com/news/letters/2004/10/27/youngvoter/index.html

Sit back. Relax. Enjoy the resounding Kerry victory on Tuesday.

[ArkDem]

37. Who was the last Democrat to get more than 51% of the

popular vote?



1964 Lyndon Johnson

[dolstein]

39. And I suspect the streak will continue

I'll be surprised if Kerry gets more than 50% of the vote nationally.

[pdx_prog]

40. Sounds about right to me!

[barb162]

44. I hope you're right because this is gonna be the dirtiest election

ever. It's gonna make 4 yrs. ago look like child's play. The repukes are already destroying registrations, ballots, etc., in various places around the country. They will od anything to win and it is very apparent. I wish I could force every democrat leaning person to vote. I would love to see an overwhelming victory as then the repukes couldn't challenge it. We have to take back our country!!!!

[cubsfan forever]

46. Excellent point! We must GOTV n/t

Professor 2

[rinsd]

49. I would be more happy with 60% turnout....

Kerry can win by one electoral vote for all I care.