Quinnipiac: Pennsylvania: Bush 49% Kerry, 47%

[PSU84]

October 28, 2004 - Pennsylvania Race Swings Back To 2-Point Bush Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Specter Is At 55 Percent In Senate Race

President George W. Bush has come from behind and now has 49 percent of Pennsylvania likely voters, to 47 percent for Democratic challenger John Kerry, too close to call, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Four percent are undecided.

This compares to a 51 - 46 percent Kerry lead among likely voters in an October 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University.

Among registered voters backing Bush, 78 percent say their vote is mainly for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 45 percent say their vote is pro-Kerry and 40 percent say they are voting mainly against Bush.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11379.xml?ReleaseID=489

[dennis4868]

1. These polls......

can give you a heart attack....I hope this poll is wrong....Kerry cannot win without Pennsylvania!

[Killarney]

2. Quinnipiac is consistently an outlier poll. Ignore it and

also ignore Strategic Vision. OUTLIERS.

[swag]

3. Major outlier, just like in New Jersey

see www.mydd.com

Pennsylvania
	Kerry	  Bush
Zogby	49	45
SUSA	53	45
RR	50	46
ARG	50	47
MC	49	44
Mean	50.2	45.4

[GOPBasher]

20. Thanks for that. Obviously, we're ahead in PA. Now it comes to the GOTV.

[kaitykaity]

33. Thank you.

My wingnut pal tried to hammer me with the
outlier.

Love having facts to slam him with.

:evilgrin:

[Zynx]

4. That's bullshit. Look at the internals.

Kerry leads among indies by 12 points.

[lancdem]

21. Their LV sample must be even worse

Among RVs, they have Kerry up 45-44, yet they have Bush up 3 among LVs and getting 49 percent of the vote? Bullshit.

Even their RV sample must have too few Dems. They have Kerry getting 80 percent of Dems and Bush 84 percent of Repukes, which isn't a big difference, and Kerry leading indys by 12. More Dems will turn out than Repukes on Nov. 2, and if Kerry wins indys by 12, he'll easily win PA.

[DaveinMD]

5. I'm very confident

Kerry is winning PA. Quinnipiac had Hillary only up 1 point on Lazio four years ago.

[lancdem]

19. I am, too

I live in PA; Bush is not winning here. Quinnipiac also has NJ tied. Yeah, right.

[Killarney]

6. Zogby: Kerry 49, Bush 46 in Penn.

[unfrigginreal]

7. I have this nagging feeling

that you are going to mighty disappointed on Tuesday.

[DaveinMD]

8. there is no way

Bush win PA. I predict a 5 point win for Kerry in PA.

[unfrigginreal]

10. Thus the disappointment

[DaveinMD]

11. OK

I didn't know what you were referring to.

[Zynx]

13. We're winning PA and I'm bookmarking this to rub it in your face.

[unfrigginreal]

16. Reread Zynx

emphasis on 'you' in post #7

[gauguin57]

9. I'm a Pennsylvanian Ignoring Polls.

I'm just concentrating on my GOTV phone calls and my door-to-door activities in southcentral PA this weekend.

[AmerDem]

12. nonsense

There is no friggin way shrub will take my state.

[cubsfan forever]

14. Kudos! GOTV n/t

Professor 2

[WI_DEM]

15. This Quinnipiac poll is BS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is not one other poll which has Bush up in PA, most have Kerry 2-7 points ahead. 120,000 people turning out for Kerry in Philly can't all be wrong.

[oasis]

17. "Soft-support-for-a-candidate" polls are clumsy and unscientific.

[Pspendrin]

18. polls are not sure anyway

None of the polls published in the web have any error tolerance - it might be about 4% or 5%; that means that the poll predicting Bush to get 51% of the votes just means that the highest probability is between 47% and 55%. But it might be something else as well - So head up...
*europe for Kerry* ;-)

[newyawker99]

28. Hi Pspendrin!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[theboss]

22. I just threw up in my mouth

I think this poll is wrong, but what the hell is going on in PA and NJ? The trends in those states are killing me.

[lancdem]

23. Nothing is going on

Quinnipiac is the only one with weird NJ and PA numbers.

[DaveinMD]

25. PA is trending for Kerry

according to every other poll. Why do you overreact to one bad poll.

[theboss]

26. Not over-reacting

I've just been following PA and NJ very closely and I feel uneasy about them both.

[lancdem]

30. Worrying won't change anything

As a PA resident, I feel very confident about Kerry's chances here.

[TexasSissy]

24. It doesn't matter WHY someone is voting for either candidate. Don't

know why some people are fixated on that. The fact that they will vote for a candidate and how much they are likely to change their vote are the only things that matter.

* has just spent more time in Pa., so maybe that had an effect. But Kerry & Clinton just spent time there, too, so....while I tend to believe most polls, when they are within shooting distance of other polls, this one does not jive.

To get to a 49-47 favoring Bush from a 51-46 favoring Kerry, Kerry would've had to lose a whopping 10 points or so, for that average to work out. That's not possible. This poll is wrong.

[durablend]

27. Look at it this way...

We don't know WHERE Quinnipac polled people...if they called mostly central PA numbers, it'd definitely explain the bias (since this is one of the few parts of the state where * has a big following)

[lancdem]

29. And there's too much disparity between RV and LV numbers

Bush gets 44 percent of RVs and 49 percent of LVs? No freakin' way.

[59millionmorons]

31. Oh please

PA has gone Dem for three straight elections. This race was over months ago in PA. Just ignor the fact that Kerry is leading in 15 of the last 17 polls taken here. Move on.

[lancdem]

32. Of course, the Repuke-leaning afternoon paper

where I live had to put the article about this poll on the front page. :eyes: