TIPP Poll * 46 Kerry 43 Nad(i)r 2

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.tipponline.com


I only post it because Kerry has reduced an eight point gap to three since Monday or Tuesday...

[lancdem]

1. And Bush is only at 46 percent

TIPP was way off in 2000, BRW, as you pointed out a few days ago.

[Beetwasher]

2. That's A HUGE Swing For this Poll In A Few Days

Very odd :shrug:

[swag]

3. Their polls have just been unbelievable volatile and fucked up this year

but thanks for posting that. I, for one, am reassured that they are not on to something in their earlier messes, er, polls.

[michigandem2]

4. it means polls are shit

how can he be up 8 pts on the 25th and by the 28th only up 3??

he was never up by 8...doubt he is up by even 3...he is probably DOWN 3

[michigandem2]

7. btw KERRY has never

led in any of these polls...all the polls are all over the place..so I think everyone no matter who is up...is really having a hard time judging what the real outcome will be..which is PRIME for ....a LANDSLIDE

[Robert Oak]

5. nader@2%? undecideds increase 7%?

I fear a disaster a very stealable election coming our way.

[Pirate Smile]

6. This shows the trend

B K N U
October 28 47% 44% 2% 7% +3 Bush
October 27 48% 44% 2% 6% +4 Bush
October 26 49% 43% 2% 6% +6 Bush
October 25 50% 42% 2% 6% +8 Bush

[troublemaker]

8. Again we are seeing the normal process. Undecideds increase

going toward the election, rather than decreasing. That two-step move is what happens when an incumbent is rejected; people move from Bush to undecided, then from undecided to Kerry.

That's what we saw with Reagan in 1980 and congress in 1994 and it was certain we would see it with Kerry too. (Nice to be on the right side of one of these moves for once!)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. I Am Familiar With The Incumbent Rule

but now I see there are spins on it...


The undecideds who stick with the incumbent make that decision in the week before the election and the undecideds who go to the challenger do so on the weekend before the election...

That's what Cadell says happened to Carter...