Do we take the Rasmussen tracking poll seriously?

[novadem]

I hope not, it is trending towards the Shrub.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm


I don't worry about the actual numbers in any poll, but I do think trends are indicative.

We need to GET OUT THE VOTE!

[NDFan]

1. Polls are BS

Especially in close elections. 2000 proved this.

It's all about TURNOUT, TURNOUT, TURNOUT.

[ThePhilosopher04]

2. There are no trends...

inside the margin of error, other than typical fluctuations back and forth. A trend is sustained, noticeable movement in the direction of one candidate.

[novadem]

3. I'd like to think you're correct

but it looks like a trend to me. I think it should be recognized and acted upon. I'm confident that Carville and Company are on it.

[rockydem]

6. He's up by two fuckin' points! LOL

that's a win for us...

All the polls had * far further ahead in 2000 - and he lost the nationwide popular - which he's going to lose again.

[rockydem]

4. exactly

there are little "mini-trends" in the other directions as well....

the election is close...

but undecideds break for the challenger....

and we have that army of brand-new voters...

I can't wait until election day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OH AND FUCK OFF WINGUTS!!!

[Qutzupalotl]

5. Nope.

[TexasSissy]

7. Rasmussen shows * trending down & Kerry trending up. So....????

On 10/10/04 Bush was at 49.5; he's now at 48.9. Kerry was at 45.5; he's now at 46.9.

It's been a dead heat all month, with what little trend there is trending in our favor. So, I don't know what you're looking at.

Rasmussen is right-leaning. For example, it has had Bush's job approval rating at 50% or over MOST OF THE YEAR, even at the start of the beheadings, when ALL OTHER POLLS have shown his job approval rating as fluctuating and frequently UNDER 50%.

This newest Rasmussen poll is, in fact, somewhat good news. It's a statistical tie. And Kerry has gone up this month, while * has gone down.

[seraph]

8. NO. (nt)

[NYCliberal]

9. Rules concerning polls

1. if it favors Kerry (see The Economist), repeat it constantly

2. if it doesn't favor Kerry, any of the following will do:

i) ignore poll - "all polls are BS"
ii) insult pollster - "crack smoker"
iii)challenge pollster - "everyone I know is voting against Bush, so
a majority of votes state-wide will go for Kerry"
iv) insult others on forum who don't share your conviction that Kerry just might not take 48+ states, and Dems might not get back both House and Senate.

Margin of victory either way is less than 10EV now

[novadem]

10. All I'm saying is

that we have to watch these trends closely and adjust as necessary even in these final days.

I.E., is it time for Kerry to ease off of the gas on the explosives story? Has it reached the point of diminishing returns?

[rockydem]

13. huh?

hahahahaha!

You're hilarious.

This stupid Rass poll you're hyping means NOTHING!

It's tiny shift within the general sampling error!!! Go read the mysterpollster blog - he explains it quite well.

BTW - I believe Rass uses automated calls - the kind many people just hang up on.

[Buck Rabbit]

11. Cool, 19 posts, no profile, and you've already been selected

as a rule maker.

I'm jealous!

[West Coast Democrat]

12. All of the polls WERE against Gore at this point in 2000

I like to bring that up frequently to point out that Kerry is ahead in some of the polls and tied in others.

Some of the pollsters ARE going to be wrong again.

[DaveinMD]

14. I don't take

any of the rolling tracking polls seriously. The methodology is flawed. And by the way, I'm a political professional.