I don't understand

[mantis]

I don't understand all the difference with these
polls. Why are they all different? It doesn't
seem logical to me.

Also, is Zogby any good with state polls? If not,
how is it that he is good with national but not
with state? Wouldn't the same method etc apply?

I think I have a mind-block here or something.

Reason I ask is this: I'm the kind of person who
likes to know what is going on. Looking at all these
polls I have absolutely NO IDEA who is friggin winning.
States polls are different then national. National
and state polls differ from one another. This is
like one big media driven political circus and I have
no clue what the hell is going on!

Help!

[flowomo]

1. maybe that's exactly it: "NO IDEA who is friggin winning"....

all you can do it vote! If everybody votes, we'll win.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

2. Whenever youre confused, it's best to just go ahead and

FREAK OUT! Seriously.

[mantis]

4. lol

Thanks man. I needed that.

I'm right though! :)

[TexasSissy]

3. Thing is, the race is tied! The polls are going nuts. They're not

designed to pick out such minor differences in the numbers. Almost ALL the polls are statistically tied. Bush is a tad ahead one day, Kerry the next. Bush is ahead in FL, then Kerry, then Bush, then another poll says they're tied. But the common thread is that almost all the polls for the nat'l and battleground states are within the margin of error and statistically tied.

[LisaL]

5. Because you are sampling a thousand people out of

millions who would actually vote. Depending on which thousand were asked, you can get different answers.

[novadem]

6. Not if it's a random sample.

A random sample should reflect the actual outcome. That is why exit polling is so accurate.

[pk_du]

7. Mantis - here's the bottom line...

...other than "If we all vote (and they all legal votes get counted) we win." as stated above.

1. National Polls are meaningless now that they are all within "margin of error"....its another "50/50" election ( in reality its a few points either way...and hopefully our way....but whatever...thats not what counts....its the "state-based" Electoral College....and since about 40 of the 50 states are either already heavily Dem or Rep ...then it all comes down to the "swing states"

2. Swing States - where the vote will be 50/50 or close to it are all that matter now...each one of these 10 (with possible exception of Colorado) will give all of the EC votes to Bush or Kerry.

3. The State Polls in these states are heavily influenced by who they ask...first of all they are all phone-polls to peoples homes ( big advantage to Reps here - lots of people dont have their own phone , live in Hostels , Student halls...and they are mostly Dems). Also - Gallup insists that more Reps than Dems will vote so they sample of calls is made to more Reps ....so guess what?...more folks pick Bush....BUT , not by as many as they skewed it in the sample.


..so hang in there...it'll probably still be close but were gonna win!

[Lefty48197]

8. The incumbent's numbers are generally accurate.

They have usually maxed out by this time of the year. A large majority of the 'undecideds/I don't knows' begin to move to the challenger at this time.

[Thrill]

9. People are using ridiculous

LV voter methods

[zippy890]

10. WTF???

The polls are are going to vascillate from day to day at this point, that's been predicted.
WHO YOUKIDDIN?