Kerry 294 EV, Bush 244 EV Prof. Sam Wang of Princeton University.

[Quixote1818]

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

3 points towards Kerry: Kerry 322 EV, Bush 216 EV, Kerry win 99.97%.
2 points towards Kerry: Kerry 311 EV, Bush 227 EV, Kerry win 99%.
1 points towards Kerry: Kerry 296 EV, Bush 242 EV, Kerry win 90%.
no swing (decideds only, flat turnout): Kerry 274 EV, Bush 264 EV, Kerry win 61%.
1 points towards Bush: Kerry 257 EV, Bush 281 EV, Bush win 76%.
2 points towards Bush: Kerry 237 EV, Bush 301 EV, Bush win 95%.
3 points towards Bush: Kerry 220 EV, Bush 318 EV, Bush win 99.4%.

[DeepModem Mom]

1. Professor Wang and his findings deserve attention --

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Gad, those percentages are eerily similar to my Excel projections

I have it maybe 5-6% lower in Kerry's favor -- 55% currently, 85% with one additional net point.

I'm not sure it's widely understood how critical these final days are, a 1 or 2 point move either way. Just look at Wong's percentages and how much they change. Those estimations are legit.

If the national polls move consensus toward one candidate or another over the next four days, he is almost certainly the winner. Especially if it's Kerry. Bush essentially has no potential for hidden advantages, like underestimated minority support or late undecideds

IMO, state polls are basically meaningless at this point. A national tide will drag states along.