Am I correct thinking that any and all polls are useless as of tomorrow?

[WilliamPitt]

All polls reflect some interpretation of reality as of 72 hours before the poll is released. For example, any impact from the first debate did not show up in the polls until three days later. It takes that long to gather, compile and publish the information.

When the sun comes up tomorrow, it will be 72 hours before the beginning of the election. All polls past Saturday will be focused on what happened yesterday etc....interestingly enough, that was when the al Qaqaa story started to get legs.

What say you on my thinking?

P.S. Polls are mostly useless anyway; for me, this is the final nail.

[rockydem]

1. no

not correct...

[WilliamPitt]

3. Explain

and see if you can keep from saying 'Biden' somewhere in your explanation.

[rockydem]

13. battleground state polls could still be instructive

they could pick up trends within important demographics that could determine the outcome in places like Florida or Ohio.

Will - Joe would want you to be patient and look at all the angles - writing off all polls just isn't prudent.



(Hey, you brought him up - again.)

[MikeG]

2. I remember 1992 - We knew it was over on Friday.

When the polls showed Clinton pulling away.

[demokatgurrl]

11. I distinctly remember being very very nervous in 1992

and I had some Clinton staff member in my van about a week before the election, and he told me he was absolutely confident that Clinton was going to win, no matter what the external polls were showing. I tried my best to believe him but couldn't stop worrying.

I'm trying for that confidence now, because now I KNOW the polls are meaningless and hell, I don't think I ever saw 100,000 people at a Clinton rally.

[RevCheesehead]

4. what made you think they were EVER useful?

Once I saw the consistent over-sampling of repukes, I'd automatically round up Kerry's numbers by 3 or more.

[THUNDER HANDS]

5. your thinking is sound

although I can't imagine anyone not freaking out over what the polls say on Monday, regardless.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

6. they were useless in september...eom

[babylonsister]

7. I agree w/your P.S.

Have not put much stock in any of the polls because I don't think they're ever accurate.

[Goldmund]

8. I half-agree

Assuming that polls are generally useful -- which I agree is a shaky assumption -- Monday's polls will be useful to gauge where we are today, and where the momentum is today (Friday). If there are no major events this weekend, you can make educated guesses based on the inertia of that momentum. If there ARE major events, all bets are off.

[Walt Starr]

9. The polls themselves are useless

The trends indicated by the polls can be helpful, but polls are uselsss.

[demokatgurrl]

10. No, they are already useless today.

[riverwalker]

12. yep

you know those dreams where you are soaring off a cliff in a freefall?
Welcome to the next 4 days.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

14. Screw the polls!! GOTV! GOTV! GOTV! eom

[Zuni]

15. Polls were wrong by 5 to 10 points in 2000

and they are probably even more wrong this year.

With the halliburton/FBI thing and the terrible press conference today, the swing is in for Kerry

[brooklynite]

16. The last message people will get...

..is on Monday, which means the polls released on Sunday, which means polling data from Thursday-Friday-Saturday. Should reflect the height of the Iraqi explosives story and (to a lesser extent) the ad faking story.

[liberal N proud]

17. The polls have been useless for a long time!

[rockydem]

18. polls

not all are worthless...

[Robbie67]

19. Polls were useless weeks ago

I hope this is the last year that polls like the ones we've seen over the last few years are used. I hope some kind of laws are put in place with respect to polls and polling and their ability to be published without disclaimers and such.

[rockydem]

20. good poll analysis

www.mysterypollster.com

[ibegurpard]

21. As indicators, you are correct

As MOTIVATORS, Kerry behind in the polls more than a point or two would not be helpful.

[VelmaD]

22. All polls are crap anyway...

except the one on November 2. (And even it is gonna be flawed given what we know about efforts to disenfranchise voters.)

I don't say this to be flippant. I do a lot of surveying as a part of my job. As long as every person in the US doesn't have an equal chance of being selected in the sample every one of the national polls is flawed from the start. If everyone in your sample doesn't respond that makes it worse. The questions you ask and how you ask them effects results. The time of day you call effects results. The fact that you're using the phone effects results. (So would using mail or trying to get to people in person face-to-face.) Given the numbers being reported all through this campaign and how close they are any and or all of these problems and a lot of others I didn't mention could more than make up the difference between the candidates.