Iowa and New Hampshire: winners since 1972 (with a morsel of history)

[Maddy McCall]

Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary: Historic Results Since '72


Iowa caucuses did not become important until 1968, when the nation was torn apart by the Viet Nam War and because
this would be the first election after Civil Rights Acts 1964/65--both of these events were divisive in the Democratic
Party so to remedy this, caucuses became more inclusive; they became more open and thus more relevant. Locations
were announced weeks in advance and were better publicized so that a greater number of Iowans could participate.

The 1972 caucus was the first "big" Iowa caucus. (Thus, I will begin looking at 1972 results.) South Dakota Senator
George McGovern's campaign manager Gary Hart exploited the caucus to garner media attention for his boss, so he
campaigned heavily in Iowa. McGovern didn't win the caucus, finishing a suprisingly close second to Edmund Muskie.
However, McGovern DID go on to win the Democratic nomination.

The New Hampshire primary, the first in the nation each election year, historically has elected the party nominee--
well, at least until Tsongas bested Clinton in 1992. Until then, for 50 years New Hampshire picked party nominees;
that's why New Hampshire primaries are so important to contenders and watchers.

So who won in Iowa, New Hampshire, and then who went on to capture the Democratic Party nomination? Let's look:

1972:
Iowa: Muskie
New Hampshire: Muskie
Democratic presidential nomination: McGovern
General: Nixon

1976:
Iowa: Carter
New Hampshire: Carter
Democratic presidential nomination: Carter
General: Carter

1980:
Iowa: Incumbent President Carter (challenged by Ted Kennedy)
New Hampshire: Carter
Democratic presidential nomination: Carter
General: Reagan

1984:
Iowa: Mondale (Where's the Beef? LOL!)
New Hampshire: Hart
Democratic Presidential nomination: Mondale
General: Reagan

1988:
Iowa: Gephardt (Simon 2nd, Dukakis 3rd; Monkey Business)
New Hampshire: Dukakis
Democratic Presidential nomination: Dukakis
General: Bush I

1992:
Iowa: Iowa Sen. Harkin (other candidates bypass Iowa caucus, focus on NH)
New Hampshire: Tsongas (First time NH winner did not get nomination; Clinton 2nd)
Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton ("who?" they asked :-) )
General: Clinton (that's who :-) )

1996: Iowa: Incumbent President Clinton (unopposed Dem. candidate)
New Hampshire: Clinton
Democratic Presidential nomination: Clinton
General: Clinton

2000: Iowa: Gore
New Hampshire: Gore
Democratic Presidential nomination: Gore
General: Gore (but Bush selected)

2004: It's anybody's game.


It is necessary to pay attention to the circumstances of each caucus and primary if we want to look
to history as a guide. Iowa is not irrelevant; New Hampshire is VERY relevant. If we are going to say things
like, "Iowa isn't important, only two times has the winner won in the general," I think we need to look at
which winners went on to win the nomination also. Carter, Mondale, Clinton, and Gore. (No one could have bested
Harkin in 1992--no one tried). New Hampshire's record is even better at picking winners.

Feel free to contribute comments and recollections about these historic results,
as well as speculations as to whether you think 2004 will resemble previous years. :-)

Edited: atrocious grammar

[mot78]

1. NH didn't pick the nominee in 1984 either

Hart won over there. NH Hasn't picked a single winner in primaries of the party out of power, since 1988.

1992:

Tsongas won NH, Clinton nominated

1996: (GOP primaries)

Buchanan won NH, Dole nominated

2000: (GOP primaries)

McCain won NH, * nominated...although through dirty tricks in SC.


...I think we're seeing an evolution of the primaries, where SC will emerge as the third jewel of the early primary crown...30 years from now, candidates will do the same retail campaign there they do in NH and Iowa now.

[Maddy McCall]

6. The Tsongas/Clinton battle was the one I focused on because of the

challenge that emerged from it.

I think NH has also declined in importance, somewhat, because of the advent of Super and Southern Tuesdays in '88.

[mot78]

9. I wish we could have a national primary on one election night

Have it in late February, and if there's a candidate with a plurality, the winner could be determined with IRV, so the primaries arn't dominated by Kool-Aid drinkers who'll vote Green or for * if they feel their guy lost unfairly.

[Maddy McCall]

10. I do too: two states shouldn't have so much influence

But they do--people in other states look at the results of these two and either vote for the winners or ignore the losers.

[Redneck Socialist]

15. Bad idea

Nat'l primary would only increase the influence of big money and reduce the amount of contact that the contenders have with the voters.

Fair or not, candidates in NH and IA are force to talk to voters one on one and address their concerns directly without the media acting as a filter.

[Maddy McCall]

16. Excellent point.

[Maddy McCall]

12. Probably should have clarified: NH historically picked the president til

1992. Tongas/Clinton messed it up.

Thanks for adding in about the party in power. Very important consideration.

[janx]

2. Thanks for taking the time to post this.

It was probably took some time, and it was very thoughtful of you!

:hi:

[Maddy McCall]

8. You're welcome

:-)

[Kathleen04]

3. Great post.

:)

[Maddy McCall]

7. you're welcome

:-)

[IADEMO2004]

4. It's the first lap of a long race

[adadem]

5. Thanks much

helpful analysis

[BurtWorm]

11. I'm glad you posted that, jchild!

I was wondering about the history of these primaries myself. Thanks! :toast:

[Maddy McCall]

24. Anything for you, Burtworm

:-)

[shivaji]

13. Has any one EVER been nominated who bypassed Iowa cocii???

I can't think of any....and I can't find a good source to check this.

[Maddy McCall]

14. 1992: Clinton bypassed IA caucus, Tsongas won NH, Clinton got Dem nod

and was elected POTUS.

[jsw_81]

17. The list of winners on the GOP side is just as weird

1980 IA - Bush, NH - Reagan
1984 IA - Reagan, NH - Reagan
1988 IA - Robertson, NH - Bush
1992 IA - Bush, NH - Bush
1996 IA - Dole, NH - Buchanan
2000 IA - Bush, NH - McCain

[ISUGRADIA]

18. Slight correction, Dole won in 88, Robertson 2nd

Bush in a humiliating 3rd. Bush rebounded in NH after Dole lost his temper during a CBS newcast telling Bush "stop lying abount my record."

[Maddy McCall]

19. Kick

[Maddy McCall]

20. dupe

Accidently hit the post button twice. My apology. :-)

[Cuban_Liberal]

21. Interesting stuff!

I love this sort of history. Thanks for posting this. :)

[Maddy McCall]

22. Thanks! Please help me keep it kicked as a reference for DUers

[Maddy McCall]

23. kick

[Maddy McCall]

25. Here is an update:

2004:
Iowa:
1st: Kerry
2nd: Edwards
3rd: Dean

Next, New Hampshire!