Poll shows Dean is past the peak

[threemilemind]

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Dean is dropping in national polls too.

[hellhathnofury]

1. Now I'm scared. Shivers...

[Cascadian]

2. I get the feeling Howard Dean is going to be the new "Comeback Kid"

Clinton wasn't doing so hot this time 12 years ago. Look what happened that November? I still think Dean is going to get the nomination.

John

[Closer]

24. An oldie but a goodie

[ACPS65]

4. Not a big surprise.

Dean peaked for the most part during the Fall.

[hellhathnofury]

44. We're peaking all the way to the Whitehouse!

[janx]

32. Me too...

:cry:

[Paragon]

3. How delightfully vague

Sorry, what's "the peak", again? Quantify it for me?

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Paragon]

12. oh, ok

:eyes:

[janx]

37. And then he peaked again!

B-)

And then...

[blm]

5. The toughest number I saw on CNN was his national negatives. 34% is HIGH.

Too high for someone who hasn't even gotten through the primaries.

Unusually high.

[hellhathnofury]

7. Thank you very much JFK, DG, WC and JL.

Plus MacAulliffe, asshole.

[Clark Can WIN]

8. How can you blame it on everyone but Dean?

I fail to understand that. For me, it was the mouth of Howard Dean that drove me away from Howard Dean.

[Democrats unite]

10. It's their standard reply.

no substance.

[hellhathnofury]

20. Where have you been in DU?

We've been getting pounded by the others and the media for 4 months now. There's only so much a man's favorability pollings can take.

[blm]

26. Sorry, but Dean sewed the seeds of discord early last year.

And he and his supporters cast longtime liberals as "Bushlite" and even smeared Kerry as a "corrupt Washington insider" even though Kerry exposed more government corruption than ANY other lawmaker in modern history. They counted on young people not knowing anything about Kerry and had no problem deceiving them. Sad

First phone attack

Straight-talking Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean is testing his attack message in Iowa. Political operatives say Dean's phone polling is probing for weaknesses in support for Sens. John Edwards and John Kerry and Rep. Dick Gephardt. For rookie pol Edwards, it's about experience. For Gephardt, it's his alliance with Bush on key issues. Questions about Kerry test Iowans' reaction to his vote backing the war in Iraq."

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/archive/030512/12whisplead.php

From a USA Today, 4/29-29/03
Campaigns spar over remarks about military
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY

(full text at: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2003-04-28-dem-words_x.htm)

WASHINGTON — The only Democratic presidential candidate to regularly whack his rivals got a taste of his own tactics Monday and didn't like it...

...Until now, the competition has been relatively harmonious, at least for public consumption, with the exception of Dean. His attacks on fellow Democrats have been so cutting that sometimes the Republican National Committee e-mails them to party members. "Gephardt Plan: 'Pie-In-The-Sky Radical Revamping' " was the headline on one last week, quoting Dean.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri have been Dean targets in recent weeks. But Dean has reserved his sharpest thrusts for Kerry, repeatedly accusing him of selling out Democratic principles. The two men are virtually tied for the lead in polls in New Hampshire, which holds the critically important first primary election...

... Dean's remarks underscore his off-the-cuff style. In March, he accused Edwards and Kerry of softening their support for the Iraq war when they spoke to a dovish California crowd. But in reality, both had referred to their support and gotten booed. Edwards was furious and received an apology from Dean. Kerry said he deserved one but didn't get it.

After Gephardt proposed last week to roll back President Bush's tax cuts to pay for a major expansion of health coverage, Dean blasted him for wanting to repeal "huge tax cuts" he said Gephardt had supported. But Gephardt led the fight against the tax cuts passed in 2001.

The Gephardt campaign called Dean's release "factually incorrect." Thursday night, when both men were in Houston to address a black mayors group, Dean knocked on Gephardt's door. "I'm not going to go into what they said, but the governor did not apologize," Dean aide Kate O'Connor said.

[Leilani]

31. And no sense of Responsibility

It's always someone else's fault...never Dean's fault.

[bitchkitty]

36. Whose standard reply?

[Eloriel]

30. Because of the misrepresentations, that's how

Watchdog study finds more criticism of Dean than other Democrats on network news
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/01/15/politics2012EST0795.DTL


Dean didn't come by those "negatives" on his own -- not even close. People who get the "unfiltered Dean" for the most part are blown away, in THE most positive way. But when the other candidates, the DLC and DNC including Clintonistas, and the media (fueled by the other campaigns) are mischaracterizing and sometimes outright lying about what he is and represents, yeah, there's going to be some fallout.

[Dookus]

38. Your presumption then

is that anybody who doesn't support Dean has been misinformed.

I think a lot of us here know plenty about Dean, and choose someone else. We're not ignorant, we're not stupid.

We've seen the "unfiltered" Dean and aren't impressed.

[blm]

41. HAHA...That's a SCAIFE generated story, Eloriel.

There was no real "study" that judged Dean stories while grouping all the others "collectively"...geez...how did you fall for that one?

That media watch group is funded by Scaife Foundation. Olin, too. Same old characters.

They are riling up the Dean supporters to make them feel more aggrieved.

They are also trying to change the perception that Dean was pushed all last year by the media. Too many of us caught on to the corporate media's promotion of Dean.

Just who is the CMPA anyway?
http://www.cmpa.com/index.htm

http://www.mediatransparency.org/

[bitchkitty]

34. Drove you away?

You were a Dean supporter? Do tell.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

35. Bingo!!

n/t

[Dookus]

9. And Dean bears NO responsibility?

I find that hard to believe.

[Name removed]

11. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LuminousX]

14. Who claimed that?

[mitchum]

18. Their name is legion

[LuminousX]

28. That is a false assertion.

[mitchum]

39. And that is no kind of rebuttal

[On the Road]

13. Do Tell Us the Futue Then,

since you apparently have foreknowledge that it's downhill from here.

May I remind you that Dean is the only candidate with a robust organization in all 50 states? Kerry's TV ads in Iowa are excellent, but no candidate has the money to sustain that level of media coverage. Organization is going to win the nomination.

[threemilemind]

16. If he doesn't win early it won't matter

He could have organization in every country in the UN and it won't save him.

[dansolo]

42. Dean is probably the only one who can survive early losses

Gephardt and Kerry are absolutely dependant on early primary/caucus wins to revitalize their fundraising. They will not be able to survive very long without money. Clark is in a little better shape because of his recent fundraising push, though he is placing a lot of weight on a good showing in New Hampshire. Dean has the money and the organization to last out the primary season. The other candidates don't.

[JNelson6563]

15. Again??

*snicker*

[Closer]

17. hehe

You just keep thinking that ;-)

[JasonDeter]

19. Dean is still hardly known, so I'd say those numbers were skewed

by republicans gettin involved in none of their business. I don't believe any polls. I remember the 2000 elections with Gore and the polls were all over the place. A person would do well to ignore them. All they're good for is to give the stupid media something to talk about and too many of the pollsters the media use are republican controlled.

[blm]

Dean is better known than any other candidate but Lieberman.

Most people have no clue who the other candidates are.

[jsw_81]

21. A few things to remember

1. Dean has by far the best grass-roots organization to get voters to the polls when it counts.

2. Dean has raised by far the most money of all the Democratic candidates. Historically, the candidate with the most money at this point goes on to win the nomination ninety-five percent of the time.

3. Dean has an enormous number of key endorsements, including the endorsement of the 2000 nominee, Al Gore. When it comes to congressional endorsements, Dean is second only to Dick Gephardt, a man who has been in Congress since 1977.

4. Even though Dean may hit a few bumps on the road to the Boston (this is perfectly normal for a front-runner), most political experts feel that he will almost certainly win the nomination.

5. jsw_81 is supporting Dean. Every one of jsw_81's presidential candidates have gone on to win the nomination. ;)

[beaconess]

33. And despite all of this, he's in a dead heat with only 36 hours to go

[Rose Siding]

22. Lucky guy

He gets to peak ALL the time ;)

[On the Road]

23. Woah, Woah, Woah!

I just looked at those numbers again.

Yes, Dean's lead over Clark is smaller than two weeks ago, but LARGER than two months ago (5 points vs 2 points). Kerry is flat nationally (probably because the gains in Iowa were due to local TV ads). Liebermann has dropped. Edwards has gained but has less than half of Dean's support.

Based on those polls, any candidate in this race would prefer Dean's position to any of the others.

[threemilemind]

25. I would rather be rising in the polls, not falling

But that's just me.

[Closer]

27. Yeh Kerry would too

but look what's happened to him in NH! Yikes!

[On the Road]

29. So Instead of Dean's Numbers

which are 12-22-19%, you would rather have Kerry's numbers, which are 9-10-9%?

[threemilemind]

43. I would rather be rising then falling

Wouldn't you?

[mzmolly]

40. Wrong...The polls you site do not indicate any such thing.

Hopefully people will actually read the site you link.

Hilarious case I might add.

Time/CNN Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 14-15, 2004. N=380 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.

.

"Thinking ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ."


Howard Dean 19 22 14 .

Wesley Clark 14 8 12 .

John Kerry 9 10 9 .

Joseph Lieberman 9 9 11 .

John Edwards 9 5 5 .

Dick Gephardt 8 7 6 .

Al Sharpton 6 6 5 .

Carol Moseley Braun 5 2 4 .

Dennis Kucinich 2 5 2 .

Other 2 3 9 .

Not sure 17 23 23

This is one of many polls, and a 3 pt dip after the media slaughter is amazing.

IN fact, he gained recently in this poll

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 9-11, 2004. N=410 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.

.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

Howard Dean 26 24 27
Wesley Clark 20 20 12
Joe Lieberman 9 10 12
John Kerry 9 11 7
Dick Gephardt 7 9 7
John Edwards 7 6 6
Carol Moseley Braun 4 3 3
Al Sharpton 3 2 6
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 2
Other/None/No opinion 14 15 18

I hope people have learned that DU-ers are not required to be "fair and balanced."

[stickdog]

45. Where have I heard that before?

And how many times have I heard it?