Does Gephardt withdraw if he comes in third?

[ringmastery]

He's doing poorly in NH.

He's running out of money.

What choice does he have? He needs the momentum of a win in Iowa to salvage his campaign. He might be able to continue if he finishes a close second, ahead of Dean, but if he's third, isn't it finished?

Which candidate would his supporters go to?

[Dookus]

1. He may well...

if he can't do well in Iowa, he can't do well anywhere.

I have no idea where his supporters would go.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

2. That seems right. He seems to be hurting the most by the surge

of Kerry and Edwards but on the other hand he is reported to have the best organization.

I don't know if another candidate is a natural choice for his supporters to gravitate to...

[Gore1FL]

3. I imagine a 3rd will defacto kill his campaign

but, I don't see him dropping out until after NH, and possibly super tuesday. He presumably could be boyant until ST, and if he gets a strong enough showing in his homestate of MO and another gives him a 2nd or better, He coul survive through the rust belt, where he may have enough labor support to pull it out.

IMHO he has a better chance of > 3 in IA than pulling off a Super Tuesday miracle -- especially after a < 3 IA finish.

[graelent]

4. He has publically stated Iowa is a must win for him...

Even coming in second could be a death blow to his campaign.

[stickdog]

5. Does it really matter? (nt)

[LoneStarDem]

6. why?

That was rude, dismissive, and contributed nothing to the discussion.

[dusty64]

7. He needs to

place first and possibly second. If he is third or worse he will have to drop out. Hopefully he will reconsider a run for the Missouri Senate after next week.

[arewethereyet]

8. yes, just wasting money at that point. Edwards is the logical 2nd.

he's the other "working people" candidate. son of a mill worker as I'm sure you all recell.

[Iverson]

9. That would be silly.

I'm not a Gephardt supporter, so I am not advocating his staying in as my personal preference.

In a field of 8 candidates, third is respectable. Any candidate from the Midwest who does not say "Iowa is a 'must win' state for me" is vulnerable to being perceived as not taking it seriously enough. Any candidate who gives up after one minor disappointment probably is not taking the race seriously enough.

If Gephardt withdraws, it should be on the basis of supporting Bush's preventive war, not on the basis of the very first result of caucuses.

[Walt Starr]

10. He could stay in it through New Hampshire

He doesn't have to campaign much and he should have the cash to make a show of working there.

Why? Simple, he waits to see which of the standard candidates does best in order to throw his support to the most effective choice for him.

Dean and to a lesser extent Clark (in my opinion) are the non-standard candidates. He'll go with a party standard like Kerry, Lieberman (don't count him out yet), or Edwards. Whichever does best in New Hampshire would probably get Gephardt's endorsement. If they all did lousy, I would expect a Clark endorsement.

[WI_DEM]

11. It would be very difficult for him to continue

if he came in third. He might survive a very close second, but third? No. Where does he go? he gets no bounce from Iowa in NH. If Edwards does well in Iowa he will be well positioned for South Carolina and Oklahoma--what does Gep have? Missouri? that's it.

[Padraig18]

12. I see him staying in until NH, win, lose or draw.

He has the money (I think), and I think he would wait on a 'two losses' scenario before withdrawing. As to whhom he would support, I'm not sure. Maybe Lieberman, maybe Kerry, if I just have to guess.