From Newdonkey:
My colleague The Moose greeted the Virginia gubernatorial results with the headline: "Warner Defeats Bush!" And indeed, Warner deserves a lot of credit for Kaine's win, not only because he campaigned effectively for his chosen successor, but because his record gave the Democrat a big leg up while reacquainting Virginians with the virtues of the Donkey.
There's also no question George W. Bush was a big loser yesterday, after having intervened in the Virginia governor's race at the last moment. At the rate he's going, Republican candidates next year may echo the words of Bob Dole in 1974, who, when asked if he wanted an embattled Richard Nixon to campaign for him in Kansas, said: "I wouldn't mind if he flew over."
But there's another Republican George whose repuation took a hit yesterday: Sen. Allen of Virginia. Back before it became fashionable to view the Kaine-Kilgore contest as a test of the relative appeal of Warner and Bush, it was often thought of as a shadow war between Warner and Allen, two Virginians eyeing a White House run in 2008. Allen certainly campaigned for Kilgore as much if not more than Warner campaigned for Kaine. Allen appeared in Kilgore's ads, vouching for the natty mountaineer's alleged sturdy folk virtues. The way things turned out, Allen's lucky Bush flew in to take the fall for Kilgore's debacle, but the race sure hasn't burnished his own presidential credentials.
That's certainly bad timing for the junior senator. Up until now, he was the Washington Insider's hot pick for the guy who might become the consensus conservative choice to block the awful prospect of a McCain nomination in '08. Indeed, he didn't seem to have much competition for that role. The nascent Bill Frist bandwagon has blown all four tires. Brownback's views are too crazy. Santorum probably won't hang onto his Senate seat. None of the GOP governors seem to be standing out (Bill Owens of Colorado was once the Rising Star of the Right, but he's managed to alienate the Christian Right with his marital problems and then was recently excommunicated by the No Tax Church of Grover Norquist). Guiliani's less acceptable to conservatives than McCain. Haley Barbour? Give me a break.
On paper, Allen looks pretty good. He's been a governor, then a senator. He's obnoxiously conservative on most issues, but has managed to avoid making too many enemies, and always did surprisingly well in Virginia among minority voters. He won rave reviews for his tenure as chairman of the Republican senatorial campaign committee... But he sure couldn't drag ol' Jerry across the finish line in his own state.
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