2006 Senate Outcome Prediction

[Lasher]

Today in the US Senate there are 55 Repugs, 44 Democrats, and 1 Independent who can generally be counted on to side with us. I'm going to lump the Independent in with us, making the current score 55 to 45. We need to pick up a minimum of 6 seats next year. Being tied at 50 to 50 would do nothing, since Cheney would break any tie vote in favor of the 'values party'.

Here is a link to the WSJ Battleground States Poll, which provides a current prediction of 2006 Senate race outcomes:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash05a.html?project=elections06-ft&h=495&w=778&hasAd=1&mod=blogs

According to the WSJ poll, the 2006 election will result in 53 of them and 44 of us, with 3 of the races too close to project at this time. Giving Democrats the benefit of the doubt, we could end up with 53 of them and 47 of us.

Boys and girls, this ain't good enough. I have joined in the rejoicing on account of our victory this week, but we need to do some work. It is absolutely critical that we win the Senate in 2006.

I wish I had a link to a site that is a similar resource for House races next year. If you have one, please share it with me.

[WI_DEM]

1. We need all of our incumbents to win, keep our seats in open

seats such as Maryland, Minnesota, Vermont (this one is likely), and New Jersey (acting Gov. Corday would be our best hope) then pick up these states:

Pennsylvania
Ohio
Rhode Island
Missouri
Viriginia (with a strong candidate, Allen can be beat)
Tennessee

I also think we may have a shot at Arizona.

If there is still strong momentum in the air towards the Democrats it can be done, but it will be hard.

[Lasher]

8. Thanks for the insight

WI_DEM,

OK then: MD, MN, VT, & NJ are held by Dems now. Right now I'm assuming we will hold every seat we have now, which is not a safe assumption at all, BTW.

PA, OH, RI, MO, VA, TN & AZ are currently held by the Jackasses. RI Senator Reed is a Dem and Chafee is a Jackass, and I am assumin Chafee is the one who will be up for re-election next year, right?

So based on the possibilities you have shared, we could pick up as many as 7 seats. That would make it 51 us and 49 them, barely what we would need for a minimal victory.

We have really got some work to do. We can do it, but there is no reason to be complacent.

[bullimiami]

2. everyone was surprised by the repuke sweep a decade ago.

we will need to win with overwhelming force to overcome the corruption handicap but I still think it is possible.

[FrenchieCat]

3. Shit....you are right...this ain't good enough!

3 more years of similar damage....and we're done! :(

[LynneSin]

4. Corzine needs to pick Richard Codey as his replacement in the Senate

Corzine's seat is up for re-election in 2006 but now that Corzine is governor he has to pick a replacement. It looks like former NJ Governor Tom Kean has his son running on the republican ticket. Richard Codey filled in as governor after McGreevey stepped down and did not run for the position (he's the Majority leader in the State Senate). Codey left the governor position with a 60%+ approval rating and I think he would be the best choice to replace Corzine in the Senate!

[WI_DEM]

5. Rasmussen says his exit polling gave Cordey a 71% approval

rating--so your are correct, he would be our strongest candidate against Kean.

[godai]

6. There's another thread suggesting Bruce Springsteen as replacement

Is this any more far fetched than Ahnold or a Senator's wife when he dies? I think that it would lead to some interesting Senate debates, another thorn in *'s side.

[kwolf68]

7. Looks promising

None of our Dems are vulnerable. Not sure about Dayton (I'd cringe with 2 Repukes from Minnesota), but Sarbanes should cover Maryland.

Casey is 9.9 up on Santorum
Hackett is 9.9 up on DeWine
Talent is only 0.3 up in Mizzou
Ensing is only 2.6 up in Nevada and if Jack Carter gets in maybe we can flush this seat.

We have 4 great chances at pickups here. Plus we add a more Liberal Bernie Sanders in Vermont hopefully.

That only gets us to 49 seats...we'd need 2 more. VA, TENN, and Arizona are the next bets, but I can't see us taking 2 of those. One maybe...but that would put us 50-50 with FU breaking all ties.

Still, it would be a boon and would effectively render Bush and his cronies lameducks.

[Roland99]

10. Sucks Bunning won out here in KY. Damned same-sex marriage ballot

screwed up the works.

[paineinthearse]

9. Long-running tracking threads in the Dem forum

Republican Senators up for re-election in 2006 - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=296&topic_id=1419&mesg_id=1419

Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2006 - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=296&topic_id=1400&mesg_id=1400