The politics of troop withdrawal - let's discuss

[onenote]

I think everyone expects that there will be some reduction in the US troop levels in Iraq sometime during 2006. The public has lost faith in the war and sentiment clearly seems to be on the side of beginning to pull back, even if its done in stages. If troop levels are unchanged by June, the repubs in Congress may begin to panic about the 2006 elections, so I think that something will have to be started by then. Of course, if the troop withdrawals start early in the new year, its going to undercut those who criticized the Democrats saying that withdrawals should occur sooner rather than later. And if they wait too long to start, they run the risk that the public will see the moves as purely political, aimed at propping up the repubs in November (in other words, an October surprise withdrawal could backfire).

But assuming withdrawals start mid year, the repubs will crow that the Dems wanted to "cut and run" six months earlier, but that they (the repubs) were patient and took the better course. Will that sell? How do Dems rebut it? Can Democrats, having called for troop withdrawals to start sooner safely criticize chimpy by suggesting that the withdrawals are politically motivated? Will that approach backfire?

Finally, there is the wild card -- how things go in Iraq after the troops start leaving. If there are any big incidents -- assasinations of major figures, etc., its gonna be ugly...some repubs will want to claim that this proves that the Democrats were wrong to urge withdrawal. But since the withdrawals will be on chimpy's order, are they blocked from making that criticism? And if things do go bad, what will the Democrats say? If things don't go bad, then, as suggested above, the repubs will say that its because they timed it just right and the Democrats will argue that we could've started withdrawals earlier. Which argument will have more credibility with the public?

Just a bunch of questions. Let's discuss.

onenote

[Tom Joad]

1. I think the emphasis should be the legality of staying there...

the morality of continuing an immoral occupation.

It probably won't be nice when the US troops leave, but it is worse if they stay.

[onenote]

2. I agree that the war was immoral and illegal but

those arguments haven't had any traction with the public until now so will they be effective politically next year?

onenote

[Tom Rinaldo]

4. Those points started to gain some traction with the Libby indictment

I think the fact that more Americans are increasingly aware that intelligence was falsely distorted in order to "justify" the Iraq War is helping in this regard. If we are going to press this point it needs to be pressed now, before the only matter being debated is how quickly troop withdrawals will happen, because we all know that Bush is going to start withdrawing troops before the 2006 Elections.

The implications of an American government illegally taking our nation to War are too huge for us to allow them to get forgotten in the shadow of an extremely important debate on how to get the United States out of Iraq now. We have to keep a dual focus on both the future of America's involvement in Iraq and the past account of how the Bush Administration forced us into war with Iraq in the first place.

The Democratic Congressional delegation includes a range of Democrats from fairly conservative to very Liberal. Getting almost all of them to agree to read from the same page now is not easy, but I think this email that Wes Clark recently sent out represents a good start in that direction. I know some will take a more radical stand about getting out of Iraq than the referenced petition spells out, but it represents a consensus position. We are free to individually push further. What I like about it is the emphasis that we can't just let bygones be bygones now. We have to get to the bottom of how the United States got dragged into an illegitimate War. Here is the text of the petition:

"Nothing has hurt our mission in Iraq more than the lack of oversight and accountability over President Bush’s misguided strategy from the Republican-led Congress, and nothing is more crucial to turning the tide than Congress living up to those responsibilities from here on.

We, the undersigned, demand that the mistakes of the past be examined and rectified, and that the course for the future be concrete and accountable."


Here is Clark's letter with links to the petition in it:

It is no coincidence that for every month that the White House has refused accountability, for every month that the Republican Congress has abdicated its oversight responsibilities, Iraq has sunken deeper into turmoil. With Members of Congress home in their districts this week, they will find that America is demanding answers, and that they can no longer simply sit on their hands.

Republicans refused accountability for the lack of equipment for our troops, and to this day soldiers are still buying their own body armor. Republicans refused accountability for the White House's role in Abu Ghraib, and our reputation in the world has been tarnished even further. Republicans have still not taken a serious look at the Bush Administration's use and manipulation of pre-war intelligence, and our national credibility is heading for an all-time low.

All of these issues, and so many more, put our troops in danger and undermine our remaining chances to get Iraq right. We will not complete the mission that almost 2,000 Americans have given their lives for unless we address these questions, demand benchmarks for success, and hold the White House and the Pentagon accountable for meeting those benchmarks.

The Republican Congress must not abdicate its responsibility and leave President Bush to his own devices any longer. We must demand a strategy from the Administration that sets benchmarks for success and a commitment from Congress to hold the White House accountable for meeting them.

Click here to demand accountability for the past and future in Iraq!
http://www.dccc.org/get_involved/petitions/clarkiraq/index.pl

The unfortunate truth is, only a new Democratic majority in Congress will likely provide full accountability and answers to the tough questions that the Bush Administration has dodged for years.

But Iraq cannot wait until after the November 2006 elections -- by then it may be too late. So I am standing with Democrats in Congress and urging those Republicans of conscience to join us to change the course in Iraq before it's too late. With Tom DeLay indicted, Bill Frist under investigation, and President Bush's White House paralyzed by indictments and investigations that have brought dwindling poll numbers, America needs real leadership now. We Democrats must provide that leadership, because the Republicans have clearly demonstrated they can't, or won't.

Because Congress has taken itself out of the equation, the American people have no real way to find out from President Bush why our "progress" is measured in negative numbers, whom we can hold accountable, or most importantly, how to rectify the problem. If we are to have any chance of leaving a stable Iraq behind, we must change course now.

Click here to demand accountability for the past and future in Iraq!
http://www.dccc.org/get_involved/petitions/clarkiraq/index.pl

Accountability is not just about clarifying the past; it is about success in the future, and getting the right people in the right positions to make the decisions that will make or break the mission. If we do not have benchmarks for progress, we will not make progress. If we do not hold those people making decisions accountable, we will never get the right people making the right decisions.

Our mission in Iraq has been hurt by the lack of oversight and accountability over President Bush's blundering strategy, and nothing is more crucial to turning the tide than Congress living up to that critical responsibility.

Tell Republicans in Congress that the mistakes of the past must be examined and rectified, and that a course for the future must be concrete and accountable:

Click here to demand accountability for the past and future in Iraq!
http://www.dccc.org/get_involved/petitions/clarkiraq/index.pl

It is clear that we can no longer trust the Bush Administration to be honest with us about our progress in Iraq. With oversight, accountability, and transparency from the Congress, though, we will not need to. And perhaps Iraq will yet have a chance.

Sincerely,

Wes Clark

[onenote]

7. thanks for posting Clark's statement..I hadn't seen it

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. In terms of the 2006 Elections, our first chance to change U.S. policies

I think this is very smart framing. Highlight Republican failures in launching the war to begin with, cooking the evidence, failing to plan going into it, failure to have a plan now, and failing to provide oversight or accountability for actions taken or not taken then or now, contrasting with Democrats stepping forward willing to provide leadership.

Again, this is a consensus message, individuals can go much further, but it provides a least common denominator starting point for all Democrats to press our case in 2006. I have been heartened somewhat by greater coordination and solidarity within Democratic ranks under Pelosi and Reid.

[JuniperLea]

3. Since the "insurgency" is fighting back at American forces

I think the violence will go down once we are out of there.

The people of Iraq need to make decisions on their own. Our influence has not helped them one bit. Seriously, the new constitution disguised as democracy, sets them back decades.

[RufusEarl]

5. Leaving Iraq

Playing politics with the military, not the best idea IMHO. But that's what's going to happen. The Dem's should take the position that we should leave Iraq Period sooner the better politics be damned because it's the right thing to do.

The Dem's should remember this one simple thing, do what's best for the country. The Dem's have the high ground in this argument as well, they had more no votes for the war then Repbu's. The fact that Bush started the war on false claims will stay with most voters come 2006 & 2008, and if we can have a fair election I believe most voters will do the right thing. What's going to happen in Iraq after our forces move out is anyones guess at this point, my best guess is it will implode.

As bad as Iraq is at this time, i have to keep my mind focused on the next election. It's a given that we change the house and senate in 06, so both houses can start investigating this admin ASAP! I'm not sure i've added anything to the debate here, except Iraq was lost before we ever invaded.. Peace!

[onenote]

6. you definitely added to the discussion...thanks

[Mountainman]

8. What do you think will happen if things get ugly here? What if some

unimportant soldiers get killed?

I don't care about Iraq as much as I do about the US. We don't have to make the world safe for Iraqis. We have to deal with our own problems and we should not be spending billions a week on the war profiteers and that is all we are really doing. We need to spend the money here on health care and schools and roads and jobs etc.