Canadian Election

[Jon8503]

Would be interested in those DUers that could comment on the election. The information I have is that the conservatives made gains in the election by election of the new Prime Minister and they gained some seats.

Appears there was some dissatisfaction with the liberals; about what I don't know.

However, the news media here is making it sound like the conservatives took over.

Would be interested to know what exactly did take place.

Thanks.

[Doctor_J]

1. Here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2388058

[rurallib]

2. Suggest you go to the state and country forums

and go down to the bottom of the page to the Canada forum. These folks will give you a good tour of Canadian politics. In brief from an outsider, it takes 155 seats to run the government and with 123 the Cons are well short of the magic number. They will have to form a coalition and since the other parties are some form of lefty, the cons will have a very tough time governing.

[Jon8503]

7. Hey, thanks, should have gone there but appreciate the good

replies anyway. Will check it out.

[whosinpower]

3. The conservatives won

A MINORITY government. What does that mean? It means that Harper does not have a majority of seats to vote on his agenda - therefore we shall see how well he is at negotiating with the opposition. He must gain support from the opposing parties to pass anything.

Conservatives - 124 seats
Liberal - 103
Bloc Quebequois - 51
NDP 29
independant - 1

The liberals lost - not because Canada is drifting to the right - But because the liberals have been plagued with scandal and corruption. Canadians voted to punish them - but not write them off totally. Paul Martin - Leader of the liberal party has resigned as PM and will not lead the party in the next election. So - we can look forward to a leadership convention in the liberal caucus and hopefully - the party can heal itself.

Having said that - Harper did not get his mandate - even though he presented himself as a moderate centrist. He can govern only as long as he can get along with everyone else. Should he try to push a right wing agenda - he will be out on his ear faster than spit with a non confidence vote and yet another election.

In terms of a popular vote - nationally - the conservatives got around 36 percent of the vote. The rest of the parties - Liberal, NDP and Bloc all lean left - so if you were to break it down - it would be 36 percent leans right. 64 percent leans left. Hardly a change in canadian thinking - we are still lefties up here.

Last time the conservatives were in power - we saw a devastating recession - double digit inflation and horrendous debt - all because Mulroney wanted tax breaks for the wealthy and his corporate interests. He resigned when he could see the writing on the wall - Kim Campbell stepped in and the conservatives were annihilated from a big majority government to 2 seats.

Canadians have not forgotten. It is just that we need to give the liberals a "time out" to refocus. Harper's hands are effectively tied into governing moderately. Who knows - maybe he will get to like it and recognize this is what the vast majority of Canada wants and needs. Perhaps he will abandon his right leanings.......we shall see.....we shall see.

[Canuckistanian]

4. Good analysis

Now, you Americans, don't let anyone tell you the conservatives "took over".

They are on a very short leash in a very precarious position.

[terrya]

5. Good analysis. Thank you.

I posted a question in the Canada forum about what the new government could do...and it sounds like damned little. That's reassuring.

But, good news maybe for Harper...he might just get that invite to the ranch in Crawford. Boy, that will be a feather in Harper's cap...

[Lisa]

6. an affectionate George W. Bush would be Harper's worst nightmare!

He is smart enough to know that most Canadians don't like Bush's policies at all -- in fact, it's quite possible that his outburst on "activist judges" (a favourite Bush phrase) scared off enough voters that it cost him a majority. Guaranteed, a front-page photo of Bush cozying up to Harper (here or at Crawford) would be used by the opposition for years after! Like that image of Mulroney singing a duet with Reagan.

I think that earlier posters here posted some great commentary. I suppose that if Harper were very rash and fanatical, he might try to ram through some major changes (like pulling us out of Kyoto, scrapping the CBC, or sending troops to Iraq) right after getting in, while the Liberals are still in disarray. He'd be banking on the opposition being scared to trigger another election so soon.

Something to watch for -- but if the Liberals and NDP in particular are paying attention, it'll be difficult for Harper to be that brazen.