Kerry & Michigan: What's the Deal?

[adriennel]

The MI Dem primary is scheduled for 2/7/2004. I heard on the news last night that Kerry was not planning to running ads in MI.

Not that I miss political ads, but I'm wondering why the Kerry campaign made that decision. Is it because MI is already a blue state? Is another candidate predicted to win in MI, so Kerry does not feel the need to campaign here? From my vantage point, Kerry is not generating any heat up here, and doesn't seem interested in doing so. Will this piss off Dems in MI?

[aldian159]

1. I heard last night

Kerry's up three to one. Maybe he thinks he's safe, i dunno?

Let me find a link to a poll or two.

[democratreformed]

2. My answer is same as the above. He doesn't have to - or so it seems n/t

[GiovanniC]

3. I Live in Michigan

And, full disclosure, I plan to vote for Clark in the caucus.

Every poll I've seen has Kerry with a HUGE lead. Like, the polls are like,

Kerry 18,745%
Dean 9%
Clark 3%

Kerry campaigned by proxy by sending Sen. Kennedy here, but hasn't really focused on Michigan too much, either in person or through advertisements. But he got the endorsement of the governor and he has won in other states... and the media -- every other word is "Kerry, Kerry, Kerry."

So Kerry probably doesn't think that he even needs to bother with Michigan. He probably figures it's a done deal.

With all respect to my fellow Michiganders who are actually Kerry supporters, I believe that most people who plan to vote for Kerry are following the pack mentality.

[adriennel]

4. Thanks GiovanniC

This is exactly the info I sought. As a MI voter, I'm not that impressed by Kerry.

I conveniently forgot Gov Granholm's endorsement of Kerry (I found it to be premature and apparently her husband already has connections to Kerry?)

I guess I should also say that I'm in Ann Arbor, and I don't think the kids are flocking to Kerry. When Clinton was campaigning in 1992, he gave a great speech on the steps of the graduate school building. This got a lot of kids, including myself, motivated to become involved in the political process (many for the first time). I guess I'm just disappointed that Kerry has not done the same. Perhaps he will if he becomes the Dem candidate.

I also think you're right about the pack mentality--in MI and beyond!

[ScreamingMeemie]

5. And don't forget that the UAW has not endorsed a candidate in

our suffering state and it doesn't look like they are going to...and I also think not voting on the overtime issue is going to hurt a couple of candidates in the caucuses. Many candidates have forgotten us and I am extremely angry. We're dying here.

[adriennel]

6. too true!

ok, for the UAW not to endorse a candidate is huge, HUGE here! I'm surprised.
I'm also glad I'm not the only one that feels that our state, which has really gone Dem lately, is being ignored.

[Nicholas_J]

7. Kerry has been in Michigan already:

Latest polls from the state are:

EPIC/MRA 1/20-25 MoE 5%

Kerry 37%
Dean 14%
Edwards 14%
Clark 10%
Lieberman 5%
Sharpton 3%
Kucinich 1%
undecided 16%

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm


Plus Kerry has picked up a good number of Unions Endorsements in the state as well.
So far:

West Michigan Building Trades Association,
Sheet Metal Workers Local 7,
United Auto Workers Region 1D,
Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters Local 100,
Grand Rapids Employees Independent Union,
Grand Rapids Police Officers Labor Council,
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Service Trades Local 174, the
Grand Rapids Education Association and Teamsters Local 406.

Michigan Education Association.

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/7858295.htm

The Michigan Education Association has endorsed Kerry, and while Dean has stated the he beleives he will get the rank and file, this did not happen in Iowa according to exit polls. Most of the members of the unions that endorsed Dean, the SEIU and AFSCME, broke with the union leadership's decision to support Dean, and 29 percent of the members of these unions voted for Kerry, 22 percent for Gephardt, and a mere 19 percent for Dean.

At least the MEA asked its members who they preferred:

Kerry received 37 percent of the vote, with 88 percent having a favorable opinion of him. Dean only got 15 percent. while all of the other candidates did less than half of that.

And while Dean has had both the AFSCME and SEIU leadership suport. right not in Michigan, AFSCME has only been able to convince 30 members to get out and campaign for Dean. A fairly good indication of exactly how the rank and file union members feel about the choice of their leadership.

As it stands, with a few days to go, Kerry has a commanding lead in Michigan, with Dean a very distant second, and no other candidate coming within range of even getting delegates.



Exit polling showed that union members bucked their leadership, with Kerry getting 29 percent, Edwards and Gephardt 22 percent and Dean 19 percent.

The problem with both Unions is that they did not ask the union members who they preferred to endorse prior to the endorsement( they dont have to but it is usual to do so anyway). The rank and file obviously did not agree with Andy Stern's decision to back Dean and thie votes showed so. AFSCME followed SEIU's lead rather than divide these two organized labor groups, but AFSCME members were even more incensed by the decision. Most of the members of these two unions wanted Gephardt. I do not doubt that ome next elecions for Union Presidency, Mr. Stern is not going to be returned to office.


Anyway, right now Michigan looks like it is going to turn out to be another Missouri for Kerry right now. He has a large number of local endorsements, from elected officials who are serving within the state, which is always a lot better of an endorsement than the endorsement of someone the state has sent to Washington.

Dean is desperately stumping to try to get loca auto plants to get their membership to ask to endorse Dean, but it has no effect on either the workers or the Unions. Dean's record of support of industrial and firefighters unions is better known among the Unions who did not support him in his backyard ( the firefighters of New Hampshire said they would like to be able to say something good about Howard Dean, but they really couldnt):

"I would like to tell you that Governor Dean was a friend to the firefighters and public safety in general, however that would not be a true statement," Locke wrote. "In fact, the only positive statement that I can make about our former governor is that he signed our Survivors Benefits bill once we had done all the work to ensure its passage.

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/clips/news_2003_0809.html

And the way rank and file union members find out about a cnadidate is to ask the rank and file members of their own unions in other regions, or other unions in the regions the candidate comes from.

So that is a lot of what is up with Michigan. A very urbanized, industrialized, unionized state is taking a good look at a candidate from Vermont who was very pro-business, and also at another candidate from a rather more industrialized stte who ha done a great deal to support wokers rights over the demands of big business. While Kerry has had to cut deals before that were less than perfrct for workers, he always fought to cut them in the direction of the workers, rather than the businesses. Dean's stance has always been to side with the businesses first, and gave job creation as his reason. But he frequently didnt care about the quality of those jobs, or the lack of benfits offered by those corporations. So just the idea of "jobs is not enough for Michiganders.

[ScreamingMeemie]

8. For clarification, UAW has not endorsed a candidate for nomination

http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0401/27/c01-45360.htm

The UAW has not chosen to endorse anyone in Michigan yet, while steward themselves might have. :hi:

I tried to make a point of seeing what all of the candidates had to say here in Michigan. Sadly, Kerry wasn't one of them because he wasn't here for public appearances in my area, which was blue collar, union, suffering because of lack of overtime.

No, no UAW endorsement here in Michigan for any of the candidates. It was to be Gephardt's

[meow mix]

9. ding! "gephardt"

well..
i just figured it has something to do with gep, since he already
sword-fell in iowa. i dunno =)

[ScreamingMeemie]

10. Right, and there is really no candidate to fill his shoes for these guys.

:hi:

[adriennel]

11. my comments related to Kerry

...were specifically focusing on the "pre-primary" rush in the past couple of weeksand his decision not to run ads. I know he has been to MI, but do you know the last time he was here?

sounds to me like lots of people are underestimating MI voters. I could be wrong. I am definately skeptical of any claim that candidate x is leading in the polls therefore candidate x will win the state primary. Look at Iowa.

[MaineDem]

12. Kerry will be in MI on Friday

9:30 am EST - Warren, MI
John Kerry will attend a Rally for America's Future with Macomb County Democrats hosted by Michigan Veterans and Firefighters at DeCarlo’s Banquet and Convention Center on 6015 10 Mile Road in Warren, MI. Please contact the Michigan HQ at 248-750-0371 and join us!

2:00 pm EST Flint, MI
John Kerry will host a Rally for America's Future with Genesse County Democrats at M-Tec on the Campus of Mott Community College at the Regional Technology Center on 1401 East Court Street in Flint, MI. Please join us! Contact the Michigan HQ at 248-750-0371 if you are interested in attending.

[ScreamingMeemie]

13. Is he coming to the NAACP Town Hall meeting on Thursday

evening? I think this is a big mistake if he doesn't. They are getting the vote out in Detroit this year which spells disaster for any candidate who doesn't show. So far only three have signed on: Clark, Dean and Sharpton.