If Lamont beats Lieberman in the CT primary, will Joe *actually* run indy?

[Guaranteed]

Poll question: If Lamont beats Lieberman in the CT primary, will Joe *actually* run indy?

In other words, is his petition simply a threat to Democratic voters, or do you think he would go all the way through with it and run as an Independent if he lost the nomination?

(He can take himself off the ballot, right?)

[MADem]

1. I suspect it would depend totally on the margin of loss

If it were a squeaker, Joementum would run as an Indy. He gets a fair share of crossover votes from the GOP submariners, military supporters and other defense types who remember his support for military infrastructure in the state, Groton most particularly. He'd be counting on being the "uniter" to split the vote between Lamont and the GOP challenger, with him taking the lion's share.

OTOH, if he gets his ass handed to him by Lamont, and the margin is pretty disgraceful, the wisest thing he could do would be to work towards affiliating himself with a reasonably respectful lobbying firm, and tossing in the towel graciously.

[calico1]

2. If Lamont wins the primary I suspect

that other prominent Democrats will pressure him to drop out of the race for the good of the party. Whether he will listen is another matter.

[Greeby]

4. I'm sure they've probably already tried

Doesn't seem to have worked so far

[calico1]

6. I don't think so.

I read an article on TNR about this whole thing. According to it, Dodd is giving Lieberman advice on how to win this thing. I think he has support *now.* But I think if he loses the primary then that's when they will try to talk him out of it.

[Guaranteed]

12. Right- because if he doesn't have the (D) next to his name,

it's not going to help them take back the Senate.

[w4rma]

14. He'll also waste Democratic resources in the general and take attention

off of other, very important, low margin races.

[Greeby]

20. My mistake, I thought you meant they'd pressure Lamont to drop out

Wouldn't suprise me, after the whole mess with Hackett

[Totally Committed]

3. Yes, Joe is absolutely an arrogant prick

who seems to feel he's entitled to that Senate seat no matter how out-of-kilter his views are with those of the CT Democratic vote. But, I'm thinking that if the turnout is large enough, and he loses resoundingly enough, the Democratic Party might try and talk him out of a run as an Independent... especially if their polling shows his run will split the vote enough to allow a Republicn win.

At least, I hope that's the case.

TC

[jonnyblitz]

5. August 8th is going to be an interesting day. nt

[Totally Committed]

8. I can't wait to see what happens.

No matter the outcome, notice has been served...

The real question is: If Joe, by some miracle, wins the primary will he feel he has to change his ways or will he feel vindicated?

TC

[calico1]

9. If Joe wins the primary he will

find a way to punish us. That's how he is. He won't become humble. He will be even more of a prick just to show us who's in charge.

[Totally Committed]

10. I have a sneaky feeling you are absolutely correct on that!

That's why I hope he is beaten into the ground and then some by Lamont. He needs to know he was unequivocally defeated. And, I hope the media doesn't allow him another "last place is really a second place finish" bullsh*t moment. He is that delusional.

TC

[jonnyblitz]

13. for me, with him, I almost despise him as a person more than

the political positions he takes. I have never seen a more smug, self-centered, arrogant PRICK as he. I truly despise him. I guess that makes me one of those unhinged jihadist far left blogger types the press keeps talking about. :shrug:

[Totally Committed]

19. Yeah, it probably does....

and me, too, and probably calico as well. We'll be dirtyrotten jihadists together! LOL!

TC

[jonnyblitz]

22. Calico is my neighbor. she lives about 10 minutes away....

CT is not a bad place! i have only lived hear 4 years but i like it. you can't beat the location, halfway between Boston and New York,IMHO. :hi:

[calico1]

23. Yes, I admit it!

I am a jihadist and I live my life to terrorize Joe Lieberman! Just because...:hi:

[Totally Committed]

24. LOL! I'm in Mass, closer to the NH border than to Boston,

but near enough to enjoy torturing Joe. I can't stand him. But, you two are genuine CT voters. I admire very much what you're doing to defeat him. I really do!

Keep up the jihad until he's gone, and I will be totally with you in spirit!

TC

[CTyankee]

36. Me, too! I'm a jihadist from New Haven (the worst kind)

and a grandmother of 4, also! My god, I'm a virtual devil.

Hey I voted yesterday for Ned at City Hall! Then I walked down the street to Lamont hq to call registered Dems around the state. Got some interesting responses, mostly undecideds. I tried to talk them into considering Ned, bringing up the war in Iraq (they all hated the war). I was calling seniors because it was a daytime weekday call. Many were home and answered. A couple of them were Lamont supporters but many said they didn't know much about him. Our work is still cut out for us with seniors! I'm going back to call next week.

[calico1]

40. Oh my God!

I hope to never run into you in a dark alley. You sound positively terrifying. Grandmas are so menacing!:scared:

:rofl:

[CTyankee]

41. Yep, pretty bad!

We are fierce! At one point in my calling, one lady said she supported Joe because he supported Israel. I said Ned supported Israel too and added that even though I was not Jewish I had 3 Jewish granddaughters (and I called them by name) and said that I would never support a candidate that I felt would not support Israel.

Enough said! And I hope I made the point to her!

[kohodog]

37. Just another shoreline left wing weirdo here.

An angry, angry one who is a threat to the entire soul of the Democratic Party. I've never been given so much credit before, but I'm glad the pundits have finally seen the light!

[Zhade]

35. Should Jihad Joe lose (he should), it'll be a pleasure.

I'll take particular joy in the fact that, per DU rules, Lieberman pimps will NOT be able to advocate for that shitbag on DU.

It'll be SWEET.

[Warren Stupidity]

7. The real question is will he get support

from the Democratic leadership? So far the answer has been yes, will these same folks stay on board with joe when he is running against a Democrat?

[calico1]

11. I highly doubt that.

Doing so would weaken them as a party. Even if they like Lieberman and would have wanted him to win, I don't think they like him enough to sacrifice the party. Although if you ask Lieberman he'd probably disagree. :rofl:

[Totally Committed]

17. self-delete

[LoZoccolo]

15. If Lamont continues to leave a hole big enough for Schlesinger to win...

...I'd say it's his duty to the Democratic Party.

[Guaranteed]

16. Yeah, Schlesinger's looking pretty scary with that 9% of the vote

he's pulling in the three-way race.

http://www.courant.com/news/local/hc-senpoll0721.artjul21,0,4388742.story?coll=hc-big-headlines-breaking

I'd say that as long as Lamont is polling significantly higher than Schlesinger, there isn't much of a problem. And he is.

[LoZoccolo]

18. There is still a hole big enough for Schlesinger to walk through.

If it doesn't close, I think that Lamont might crumble in two weeks like Dean did. People blame the media, but they don't realize that the first primary polls were showing that Lieberman and Kerry could beat Bush* while Dean couldn't, and then the crumbling began.

[calico1]

21. You don't live in CT, do you?

Schlesinger will not win. Two way or 3 way, he won't win. Whether our next Senator will be Lieberman or Lamont is the question. It won't be Schlesinger, trust me. The Gov. doesn't even like him. :rofl:

[Warren Stupidity]

26. LoZoccolo shills incessently for Joe.

His argument here appears to be that somehow 9% will be a larger number than either Lamont or Lieberman get. I suppose we could double that to 18%, but that still seems a bit far away from the 34% that would be required to win in a 3-way race.

At any rate LoZoccolo, if he is correct, does make an excellent argument for why his idol Joe ought to of course DROP OUT if he doesn't win the primary. I don't think that was his intention however.

[Name removed]

28. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[calico1]

29. Unfortunately for him,

I get to express my views at the polls. He doesn't. ;-) Local politics are and should be decided locally.

[CTLawGuy]

25. it'd be his duty

to use his influence to help Lamont get support from Dems and Indys, NOT to run as an independent and split the vote.

[IndianaGreen]

30. The GOP will dump Schlesinger and endorse Joe

and perhaps even ask Joe to run under the GOP banner. Joe wants to remain in the Senate, so he will welcome the GOP's endorsement and spin that as patriotism.

[calico1]

31. The GOP will endorse him if he

switches to Republican. Although the rumor that he was considering it is supposedly false, I would not put that past him....at all. If he loses the primary he would lose the support of the Democratic machine. So if he officially became Republican he would get their machine behind him. It would be tricky though. He'd piss off Democrats and many of the Republicans I know don't like him and they would probably think him an opportunistic weasel for joining the party just to hold on to the seat (just as a lot of us see him now for considering becoming an Independent). I think at this point anything Joe does is tricky. I do not think that anyone who feels he betrayed the party by announcing he would form his own party is going to change their mind. And I somehow doubt that most Republicans here are going to see him as sincere if he switches over to their party.

[flaminbats]

32. if Lieberman can't concede..he'll go down as a sore loser

Lieberman is only cutting his own throat in the primary by playing this game! If he doesn't get nominated now, why would Republicans even want to touch this guy?

It would be different if Lieberman switched parties before the primaries or announced first he would be running as an independent, not as a Democrat this year. but he can't have it both ways! Why didn't John McCain run as an independent after he lost to Bush in 2000..or why didn't Ted Kennedy run on the same ticket as Anderson after losing to Carter?

before..I could have voted for Lieberman if he defeated Lamont, all I can say now is thank God I don't live in Connecticut! :banghead:

[calico1]

34. I pretty much agree with you.

I was just trying to present a scenario in which the GOP might back him. The truth is though that with the games he's been playing I don't know if they'd want to touch him. Hannity or Coulter endorsing him is one thing. But the GOP party is another.

Lieberman's problem is that he severely underestimated what was going on in the state. He took his reelection soooo for granted. But then again....he is NEVER here. Now he is scrambling and for him its tough because except for when he ran against Weiker, he's never had to campaign. I think that people who just assume that Republicans will turn out in droves to vote for him are giving that scenario more credit than it deserves. Where I worked until recently it was mostly Republicans I had as coworkers. Most of them had no use for Lieberman. I can't imagine any of them all of a sudden going to vote for him. The only way that might happen is if prominent Republicans come out and endorse him and campaign for him. And even then I would doubt it because most of the ones I know think he is a slime. He made a big mistake announcing his intention to form his own party if he loses the primary.

[kohodog]

38. I think he's toast ether way.

The only hope he has is with independents. His voting record is quite liberal, perhaps too liberal even for CT Republicans. But his campaign is so off track, so negative and angry and he comes off as having been personally affronted by even having a primary that I think he's losing credibility with almost everyone. I think that's why his poll numbers are dropping so fast. Lamont has been sticking to the issues, attacking with self depricating humor and comes off as serious, credible and likeable. Pretty good for the first time out.

[karynnj]

27. The recent poll may give him the push to do so

It showed Lamont slightly ahead among Democrats. (Although a poll couldn't show it, I assume that the Lamont voters are more motivated to win and can't be won over. The same is likely not true for all the Lieberman responders.) But, the poll also showed that among all voters, Lieberman is far ahead. The problem is that the Republican candidate is awful so Leiberman is likely getting far more of the Independent and Republican vote than would happen with a decent Republican candidate.

This makes for a truely odd situation if Lieberman loses the Democratic primary.

He might still be the favorite to win a 3 way race. In fact, one reason the Republicans haven't asked their candidate to stand down might be that they don't have a good enough replacement to win a 3 way race and an adequate candidate might be able to carry most of the Republicans and pull off enough of the independent (Republican leaning) voters to let Lamont come in first.

Given the Republican candidate, if he doesn't run, Lamont should win. But, it might be tough to not run when it appears that you are the favorite to win. It will also be tricky for the party, if they push too hard could Lieberman switch to independent and caucus with the Republicans if he wins.

[fujiyama]

42. I'd like to see his ass kissers and defenders

get behind him if he does caucus as a repuke. It's never easy to tell with Joe who finds some way to stab the party in the back by parroting RW talking points.

[LaPera]

33. The arrogant fucking Lieberman will absolutely run as an Independent!

He's such an asshole...and wants the power, notoriety and kickbacks that being a sentor allows him and Liebermann really believes the senatorial job belongs to him for his lifetime.

[Cascadian]

39. This post calls for a Tom Tomorrow cartoon

What is funny is that I could see Joe Loser-man actually barricading himself in his Senate office. The man is so desperate to keep power, it's fricking pathetic!


John

[Crunchy Frog]

43. If things are looking really, really bad for him

he could decide to forgo the humiliation. I'm not betting on it though.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

44. I'd be amazed if not.

He has overwhelming support from the people of CT as a whole; it's only the Democrats who are lukewarm about him. Hes more or less certain to hold onto his seat, regardless of the result of the primary; all it will decide is whether the Senator for CT is Lieberman (D) or Lieberman (I).