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Okay, I don't have a specific number for the House races, but my guess is that we're gonna win the House back. How many seats? I'm going to be conservative and go along with the CW on that - probably between 20 and 25 seats although it'd great if we could go higher (30+).
In the Senate, I'm guessing, at this point a 5-seat gain. I think between Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia, we'll win 1. Most likely either Virginia or Missouri. In all three races though, the Republicans are ahead by a very narrow margin. Claire McCaskill here in Missouri may be taken over the top by the stem-cell initiative. The two races appear to be merging.
Earlier, the stem cell initiative was passing by 60 or 70+ percent and many "YES" on Amendment 2 were voting Talent. In the last few weeks, support for the initiative has dropped to the mid-to-upper 50s (high 40s in one poll) as antiabortion groups, evangelical churchs, and the Catholic Church (including Archbishop Burke) have come out strongly against it. As a result, I think many stem-cell supporters are reconsidering their support for Talent, even while McCaskill is losing some rural votes as this issue gains more prominence.
So I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll get ONE of these seats, but a win in none of these 3 is possible.
I think Cardin (D) will win in Maryland and I think Menendez (D) will win in NJ (although narrowly).
I also think, unfortunately, Joe Lieberman's going to win in Connecticut. It's less than 2 weeks until election day and there has been no movement in Lamont's numbers. (Full disclosure: I initially had been wary of trying to unseat Lieberman; I viewed him as annoying, especially on the war, but figured that by making his ouster a liberal cause we were greatly inflating his importance. I did come to support Lamont's victory, however, because Joe's primary campaign seriously turned me off and I was happy to see him lose. If I were a CT voter I would vote Lamont, but I think Lamont seriously missed the opportunity to redefine the race in the days following the primary.)
So to sum up, 20-25 seats in the House, 5 in the Senate. I also think we'll pick up the governorships of NY, MA, OH, MD, MN, and NV.
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