Obama has fans in focus group - Hillary treated roughly - Repug "safest" choice in '08

[jefferson_dem]

Obama has fans in focus group
But 12 Md. voters look to GOP for safest choice in '08 White House race
By Paul West
Sun Reporter
Originally published May 23, 2007

Americans will be choosing change in 2008, if a group of Maryland voters is any indication. Whether the next president will be a Democrat is another question, though.

Sen. Barack Obama drew the most positive responses, while Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton came in for rough treatment, during the first in a national series of focus-group discussions sponsored by the University of Pennsylvania's nonpartisan Annenberg Public Policy Center.

But when the area voters were asked who would be the safest choice to lead the country in these uncertain times, nearly all, including Democrats and independents, picked Republicans: former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, Sen. John McCain or former Gov. Mitt Romney.

Only two chose Democrats: Obama and former Sen. John Edwards. None mentioned Clinton.

Veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who led the two-hour session, said it would be a mistake to underestimate the importance of homeland security in the 2008 election, calling it "a hidden underlying issue."

<SNIP>

As for Clinton, voters couldn't seem to get beyond concerns about her personality, her husband and her single-minded drive for power.

Most said they wouldn't vote for her under any circumstance. Some who had backed President Bill Clinton said she has a long way to go to gain their trust.

<SNIP>

Obama elicited enthusiastic reactions across party lines, with voters describing him as "charismatic" and "smart."

<SNIP>

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nationworld/bal-te.focus23may23,0,947644.story?coll=bal-nationworld-headlines

[global1]

1. I Not Flaming You - But I Find This Humorous - Your Post Basically.....

disses Hillary and winds up praising Obama - and then you end your post with the Obama '08 Logo. This reminded me of commercials we see where they tout a candidate and then at the end of the commercial it says - sponsored by a group supporting this candidate.

Truth in Advertising and I guess Truth in Posting on DU.

[Missy M]

2. I wouldn't trust any organization with the name Annenberg attached.

[jefferson_dem]

3. You may not like their findings but Annenberg and Peter Hart are totally reputable.

Annenberg is an academic research center, affiliated with the U. of Penn and run Professor Kathleen Hall Jamieson.
http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/

Peter Hart, who led the focus groups, is quite simply one of the most reliable pollsters around.
http://www.hartresearch.com/about/bios/

You'll have to find another line of refutation rather than attacking the messenger this time.

[Missy M]

5. Sorry, but I stand by what I said.

[The Backlash Cometh]

4. The more that the Dem Congress capitulates to Bush, the less likely

that Hillary will make it past the primaries.

[Captain Hilts]

6. "Single-minded drive for power." People don't say this about men, do they? nt

[karynnj]

7. Any focus group should be treated with skepticism

By their very design, a strong opinionated member on the panel can easily lead the bulk of the group to agree or at least not counter his/her opinion.

They are much better at picking out feelings that are out there than actually quantifying them. Here, I suspect that there was someone on the panel that articulated those negative feelings about Hillary and was able to win over the group. I seriously doubt the entire group came in with that view.

(My only experience with focus groups was monitoring behind a 2 way mirror 2 focus groups that were put together to assess opinion on perception of the cost of some products of a company I worked for. I was working on a related study and was invited by a peer who had contracted for the studies because she knew I thought the idea of focus groups was interesting.

The results of the 2 back to back groups run by the same moderator were night and day from each other - mainly because of one well dressed, articulate - and very inaccurate person. The focus groups were useful because of some qualitative information they provided.)

I am not a Hillary supporter and agree with some of the expressed impressions of Hillary, but in honesty I don't believe these results. I do think they may signal that the Democrat will still have to pass a "national Security" threshold, that irritatingly Republicans are given automatic credit for - what did Romney do on national security? If so, I hope the Kerry, Hart, Zinni et al group is able to have some impact on educating Americans on National Security, which was their goal.

It may signal that this is an image of Hillary that can be sold. There may not have been the need in this group to cast Edwards and Obama in a negative personal light if they weren't perceived as strong on national defense.

[jefferson_dem]

9. Good post. Focus groups can be used to reveal and probe general impressions

and are good for image-testing. However, sample sizes are very small and data are not quantitative so results are not *always* generalizable to the larger population.

[hlthe2b]

10. Previous post was correct about the impact of "peer pressure"

especially with one or more highly aggressive members....


That said, it is hardly unusual to get a majority of Repugs from 12 Maryland residents chosen to participate in a focus group.

[beachmom]

14. Well, I watched it, and there was actually one very strong Hillary

supporter there (one other lady liked her, too), who was well informed and spoke intelligently. And there was nothing negative said about Hillary, when he asked the question -- who wouldn't you vote for. Unfortunately, it seemed spontaneous, and not influenced by an opinion leader. I'm not a Hillary supporter either, but I found it very depressing, because she leads the Dem polls, so we could end up with her winning the primary and losing the GE.

But thanks for your insights, in general. This may have been a factor in the anti-Edwards stuff. The most right wing person there really hated Edwards, saying he "scared" her, and everyone seemed to go negative on him after that.

Um, Romney got NO traction. "Flip flopper" was and is what he'll be thought of.

[Justyce]

8. "12 Maryland voters" -- I don't think I would consider this

very accurate on any kind of broad scale...

[skipos]

11. While Hillary underperforming Edwards and Obama is no surprise

A poll of 12 people is obviously not worth considering. Dame Rudy and McCain, for a couple of warmongering Bushbots, always poll well because of their mythical hero status, but I have never seen Romney beating a Dem in a national poll.

Ras polls...
Romney (29%) Edwards (55%) EDWARDS WINS BY 26%
Romney (37%) Obama (52%) OBAMA WINS BY 15%
Romney (34%) Richardson (42%) RICHARDSON WINS BY 8%
Romney (44%) Clinton (47%) CLINTON WINS BY 3%

[Hersheygirl]

12. For one thing, I don't believe this country

Will pick another republican after the mess * has put us in. As far as which dem it will be, is another question. Gosh, there is still 18 months before the election and everything could change in that time. Way to early to tell what is going to happen. All these polls are just non-sense, because things can change on a dime. I'll wait till closer to the time to pay attention to the polls to give them any credibility.

[NavyDavy]

13. i am with you.......

:)