Bloomberg vs. Hillary vs. Rudy ????

[jcrew2001]

Will the South secede again - Hahaha.

Strangely, I think Bloomberg can win in a 3-way race against Hillary and Rudy. Unless every woman votes for Hillary.

[SharonRB]

1. Run, Al, run

We can't have a "subway election."

[LBJDemocrat]

2. I'm hoping for a Rudy GOP nomination

It would prevent the GOP from playing the religion card. All that the GOP would have left is the "tough on defense" image, which might not work well after Bush's second term.

[CK_John]

3. Replace Rudy with Romney and you got it right.

[illinoisprogressive]

4. I'd vote for bloomberg over Hillary. He is more liberal than her

[CTD]

6. So would I. And Hillary is even to the right of Rudy.

nt

[Orangepeel]

8. on what issue or issues is Hillary to the right of Rudy?

I can't think of one.

[CTD]

11. Gay rights to name one.

And he doesn't appear to be genuinely as eager to bomb Iran, although he has to say he is. Hillary is more in the back pocket of AIPAC than Rudy is.

Don't get me wrong, Rudy would be AWFUL. But Hillary isn't much better.

[Orangepeel]

15. Personally, I don't see it.

They both claim to be against marriage but for civil unions. I believe that Rudy only seems more gay friendly because he is extremely gay friendly for a republican. But he's not any better than Hilary.

I also disagree about bombing Iran or anywhere else. To me, Rudy seems genuinely eager to be "on the offensive," as he put it. The whole point of his campaign and his only appeal to the people he wants to vote for him is that he's strongly in favor of bombing Muslims.

I guess your mileage varies.

[CTD]

16. Hillary even refused to comment on Gen Pace's comments about the immorality of gays

And she's characteristically wishy-washy on the issue. For example- http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E05EEDD1030F93BA35754C0A9609C8B63

[Orangepeel]

17. And what did Rudy say?

Nothing. At least Hilary's on record as in favor of "allowing" gays to serve in the military. Rudy wants to keep "don't ask don't tell."

You are holding Hilary to a higher standard than Rudy -- as you should, given that she is running as a Democrat and he is running as a Republican. But I see nothing to support the idea that he is better than her on the issue, if you are using the same yardstick.

[draft_mario_cuomo]

19. As did Obama (despite being asked three separate times by reporters that day) nt

[rinsd]

20. She did not refuse comment.

Its one thing to not like a candidate, its another to distort what actually happened.

[rinsd]

21. Rudy no longer cares about gay rights as a Presidential candidate

He's for keeping don't ask don't tell which Clinton (as well as several other nominees) want to scrap.

http://gaycitynews.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=18296833&BRD=2729&PAG=461&dept_id=568864&rfi=6

Here's his own website on gay marriage

Rudy Giuliani believes marriage is between a man and a woman. He does not - and has never - supported gay marriage. But he believes in equal rights under law for all Americans. That's why he supports domestic partnerships that provide stability for committed partners in important legal and personal matters, while preserving the sanctity of marriage between a man and a woman.

http://www.joinrudy2008.com/index.php?section=2

"And he doesn't appear to be genuinely as eager to bomb Iran, although he has to say he is."

So he has to say he wants to bomb Iran and he's all for keeping troops in Iraq at the level they are now if not further escalating the conflict. He still believes in the concept of preemtive war. I am not grabbing this out of thin air, its on his issues page of his Presidential campaign website for crissakes.

Yet you like Rudy over Hillary?

You're shitting me right.

[CTD]

5. With THOSE 3, I'd agree, But neither Rudy nor Hillary will get their party's nominations.

It'll be Bloomberg vs Fred vs Al

Al wins.

[DURHAM D]

7. Good grief - what is Bloomberg's name recognition west

of Philadelphia? 3%? 5%? I think some folk from the NE have forgotten how much the rest of the country does not trust New York politicians. Esp. if they keep changing parties.

[Orangepeel]

9. a billion dollars of his own money will buy a lot of name recognition

I agree with you that "the New York opportunist" problem could sink him. But I don't think name recognition will be insurmountable.

[jcrew2001]

12. Disenchanted Male republicans would vote for Bloomberg

the only thing that could hurt him would be his religion and his stature as 'mayor' instead of governor or senator.

[Catchawave]

10. That's the message I got today.

Mike isn't a brazillionaire because of politics. His re-registration today to "unaffiliated" is HUGH!!1!!

The message was to Hillary and Rudy. Brilliant!

[jcrew2001]

13. So what is the message?

That he would be a better candidate and more electable than rudy or hillary?

It would be bizzarro world if all 3 ran on the ticket. But I thought Rudy and Mike were friends.

More immediately, Bloomberg can fundraise for Democrats if he wants, without the scrutiny.

[Catchawave]

14. Yes, you just answered your own question

Bloomberg is bigger than the Gore or Clark tap dancing...and he isn't selling books right now.

Edit to add, Bloomberg isn't playing politics.

[saltpoint]

18. Agree. Rudolf Giuliani is bruised by Bloomberg's competence whether

Bloomberg runs or not. And a recent poll indicated that New York City folks think Bloomberg is the better mayor and they like him more than Rudy.

For my part, I like Charles Manson better than Rudy.

If Giuliani can't carry New York State against Bloomberg and/or Clinton, he can't cobble an electoral college win in 2008.

Bloomberg must have taken a glimpse at recent polls showing Clinton and Giuliani as frontrunners and before either became calcified by the media as "inevitable," he may have decided to run right up the middle of the field.

And he's got a few coins in the piggybank to finance a campaign, too.

[rinsd]

22. Well Hillary is currently winning the battle of NY handily over both of them

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1078

In a hypothetical all-New York presidential race, Sen. Hillary Clinton wins with 43 percent of voters statewide, followed by former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani with 29 percent and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg with 16 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


In a head-to-head matchup, Sen. Clinton tops Giuliani 52 - 37 percent,

[jcrew2001]

23. New york should go democratic

but thats not surprising. The big question is the male swing voters in the swing states like florida, ohio, etc. who will choose bloomberg. that will hurt hillary.

[rinsd]

25. Polling for the 3 - way is limited at this time but I have some thoughts

And I think male swing voters are more likely to go Rudy or GOP than to Bloomberg.

His positions on smoking and gun control hurt him with that crowd as does his support for gay marriage.

I don't see much of a demographic that would be uncomfortable voting with Hillary but comfortable with voting for Bloomberg.

[jcrew2001]

26. But the Male swing voter doesn't want to vote GOP this time

in fact, every poll shows Americans don't want a GOP president. However, if it comes to picking Hillary vs someone else, most polls show voters unwilling to choose Hillary.

Picking Bloomberg gives male swing voters a comfortable choice. Instead of throwing their vote away, Bloomberg has a legitimate shot at winning.

Even with Perot, most Americans voted for him despite Perot not having a real chance at winning, and being crazy.

Now imagine, if competent/respected/twice-elected Bloomberg ran as a 3rd party - He should pick up the same amount of votes as Perot and way more.

The republican party is dying - lets say 33% of Americans are registered Democrats and vote for Hillary, so there is 66% of voters left out there. Of the 33% who are registered Republicans - half will vote for Bloomberg, so Bloomberg can get 17% plus the 33% unaffiliated voters = 50% for Bloomberg.

He can beat the 33% for Hillary and the 17% for the GOP. Bloomberg can win if the GOP dies.

[rinsd]

27. You are assuming too much

That Bloomberg would have an advantage with Indies, I am sure but he will hardly sweep.

The break down in a 3 way would be more likely to be a plurality than a majority somthing along the lines of 40 - 35 -25.

[jcrew2001]

28. But will anti-Hillary Dems stick with her or go with Bloomberg?

There's a strong anti-Hillary movement in the Democratic party and they might look for an alternative.

[rinsd]

29. That's my point.

Hold their nose voters are doing so to prevent a Republican Presidency not because they like Hillary.

Voting for Bloomberg is likely to have the same effect as voting for the Republican in terms of electoral polticis which are unlikely to be in doubt come election day.

It is still a danger? I would suppose so but as I said a hold your nose vote is to prevent a GOPer and voting for Bloomberg doesn't assist in that.

[jcrew2001]

30. Hillary needs the 33% of registered Democrats with her

but even if they all stay with her it won't be enough. Even if say 5% of anti-Hillary Dems jump ship to Bloomberg that would hurt her.

So, Bloomberg takes the 33% indepedent voters who are anti-Hillary. And he takes half of the GOP 33%, the moderate GOP, anti-war, pro-business.

Hillary will lose the middle to Bloomberg. I would say that Bloomberg could even beat Hillary in the Senate race if he was an Independent.

You seem to think Hillary can win the independent male voter, she can't and won't. Even if she triangulates like she has been the last 6 years; and even with Bill's help - those male voters won't vote for Hillary.

If Bloomberg's a candidate, they will vote for him.

[rinsd]

31. I have to disagree

"So, Bloomberg takes the 33% indepedent voters who are anti-Hillary. And he takes half of the GOP 33%, the moderate GOP, anti-war, pro-business."

You think he can get half the GOP? Half the GOP that is antiwar and has no problem with his gay marriage stance? You yourself have pointed out that the GOP will be motivated to vote against Hillary. Why would they take a chance on Bloomberg possibly giving Hillary the win.

"You seem to think Hillary can win the independent male voter, she can't and won't. Even if she triangulates like she has been the last 6 years; and even with Bill's help - those male voters won't vote for Hillary."

So how could Hillary possibly lose these voters then?

"I would say that Bloomberg could even beat Hillary in the Senate race if he was an Independent."

Polling doesn't support that.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_16_3way_general.php

http://www.kold.com/Global/story.asp?S=6685357

You assume this man is some great camapigner. All he did was out spend a badly fractured Dem party for mayor of NYC.

[jcrew2001]

32. You're right - Hillary never had the male swing voter and never will

She'll be stuck with the 33% registered Dem voters.

IF GOP voters have to choose between Bloomberg or (Romney or Thompson) - there are many pissed off GOP voters who would vote for Bloomberg. Maybe not half, but say 10%-15% of the GOP voter defect. Trust me when I say Hillary's general election voters are stagnant and the independent voters aren't going to jump to her at the 11th hour.

Bloomberg has all the upswing; Hillary can max out at 40% maybe.

Bloomberg can get 35% to 40% against Hillary - which is frightening for her.

Do you think Hillary can get the 50% needed to win - who's voting for her??? Not the male swing voter.

[rinsd]

35. In a 3 way race 50% isn't required to win though its always nice to have a majority.

The scenario you have set actually helps Hillary with the male swing vote that was going against her irregardless split between the GOP and Bloomberg (even with an unbalanced percentage) instead of a unified bloc helping her nearest competitor.

But here's something I think we are both interested in.

I am having trouble finding national voter registration breakdowns in terms of true percentage.

Now the closest I can find is Rasmussen's survey dealing with self proclaimed party members(15,000 person sample).

That has it 30.8% for the GOP, 36.% for the Democrats and unaffiliated voters at 32.9%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/number_of_republicans_in_u_s_hits_new_low_number_of_democrats_also_decline

[jcrew2001]

36. Bill won in 1992 with 43% of the vote

so there's something Hillary can aim for. I'll say in a 3-way race with Bloomberg, she can't get 43%. In a 3-way race, it will depend on who the GOP nominee is - if it is Thompson, he will get the southern states; and Hillary and bloomberg will split the blue states; and bloomberg will fair better in the purple states.

It will take a miracle for Hillary to win in a landslide, it will take a miracle for her to win period. She'll win by the skin of her teeth.

Nationally, its 1/3 each, but it will be more important to know the breakdown in Ohio, Florida, PA, NJ, MO. How many Dems will stay with Hillary versus the independents that will swing to bloomberg.

[onehandle]

24. = President Giuliani. nt

[rucky]

33. New York City!?!?

Get a rope...

[BenDavid]

34. In the latest Quin poll

HRC leads over Rudy by at least 24 plus and Bloomberg is somewhere at 16..This was a poll of New York state residents only...Taken yesterday...
I do thank you
Ben David