Primary compression continues: Illinois moves to 2.5.2008 as well

[Perky]

CHICAGO (AP) -- Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich on Wednesday signed a law moving up the state's primary to Feb. 5, a move certain to help Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, the state's junior senator.

As many as 25 states could hold primaries that day, and Illinois joins several delegate-rich states in settling on the early date, including California, New York and New Jersey.

"Illinois is the fifth largest state in the country. The people who live here deserve to play a bigger role in deciding who the presidential candidates will be," Gov. Rod Blagojevich said in a written statement.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/I/ILLINOIS_PRIMARY?SITE=CATOR&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2007-06-20-13-51-52


The problem wit this is that all this consolidation to a 2/5 primary is that there is no time to get anyone's name off the ballot who should bow out after being an also ran in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire SOuth Carolina or Florida. If no one has clear momentum going into 2/5 (or if a grassroots "anyone but...." occurs then 2/5 is the leading edge of the Perfect Storm.

There is no real cost to staying on the ballot. so it is likely means that 15% of the February 5th vote across 25 states will go to guys who have no shot of winning. That is going to mean 85% split between 4 or 5 candidates and that in turn means that because of a variety of geographic factors no one will emerge after 2/5 as the presumptive nominee.

I am fine with that. But the emerging problem is going to be that we would have run through the first 30 tilts in about three weeks time and it is very likely that no one is going to get a majority of the available delegates and we get into a situation where we have six months of an inter-party cat-fight until the convention where it will be left to super-delegates (party bosses) to determine the nominee.


After 2/5 it is going to very nasty on DU.

Bookmark this post. Because this is going to happen unless two of top four wreck their campaigns between now and Iowa. If Gore gets in (he is not got getting in!) It would only serve to muddy the waters even more.

[Bjornsdotter]

1. I'm for it

....nothing worse than being an Illinois voter and when it's our turn, the nomination is all sewn up.

Maybe this way it will be who the people in all 25 states choose independent of the media blitzkrieg. If it was this way in 2004, I don't think that Kerry would have won the nomination.

Cheers

[Perky]

2. yeah like that is going to happen

there are four days beween Florida and mega-tureday. It is all going to be a huge media blitz.

And nothing but a media blitz...and if I am not mistaken... Superbowl Sunday is Jan 30.


Watch the ads on that day... yikes.

[Bjornsdotter]

7. Keep in mind the "Dean Scream"

If that wasn't blown out of the water by the media, I think Dean would have done much better if more primaries were held on the same day. Too many sheep here that hang on every word that the media spouts.

Cheers

[davidwparker]

4. no, Kerry wouldn't have. (my opinion) Kerry won by winning Iowa and

New Hampshire. the rest pilled on. I'm glad for this front loading process. Your "media blitzkrieg" comment is spot on.

[Bjornsdotter]

8. The only reason I don't think Kerry

...would have won (and I definitely state that this my opinion) is because I live in a red area of Illinois. Kerry won here, but not by the amount that I thought he would. Dean had a high (for this area) percentage of votes and I was quite surprised. The other problem we had here was that many people didn't go out to vote because it was decided before our turn to vote.

I think if it's still undecided more people will think that their vote counts...:eyes: well as much as our votes do count.

Cheers

[davidwparker]

10. "was decided before our turn to vote" - Same here in VA. By the time we

voted, the #1 spot was decided and I was trying to influence who'd be #2.

[illinoisprogressive]

3. Illinois has been working on this for months.

[hedgehog]

5. And to think the last few years conventions have been viewed as

irrelevant coronations!

I like this; whoever takes the nomination is going to owe a lot to various people and will be dependent on a strong party. This way there is also a lot of time to get all the dirt out in the open and all the dirty linen aired before we make a final selection. Be honest now; how many people even heard of Whitewater before August, 1992? Sure, the Right Wing blew it up all out of proportion, but how many would have chosen a candidate without that baggage if they'd been aware of it before the convention?

[frazzled]

6. I'd wouldn't mind if it went all the way to the convention

And I think states like Illinois, New York, California, and New Jersey entering earlier will help to keep the contest going. I'd like to see different candidates win in different states. I do not want to see a repeat of Iowa deciding the nomination (or New Hampshire, or South Carolina). The media is already jonesing for a 2004-style juggernaut based on the bizarre Iowa caucus results. I thought it was extremely harmful to the party last time around.

Nothing happened in the months between locking the nomination early and the convention except fundraising. In fact, the mojo the democrats were generating from the very excellent debates got completely squandered during that time. Public interest declined. And don't forget: that was the period during which the opposition and media got to plan out their Swiftboating narrative. Why give them the pleasure?

Different parts of the country have different views, different sociopolitical makeups ... let them all chime in. Let three or four candidates duke it out for as long as possible: whoever emerges as the eventual winner will be all the stronger in the end, and the party will find its way together as it finds its way toward a single candidate. Let it go three ballots at the convention, even. Everyone likes some good excitement. Crowning a victor by February 5 is ridiculous.

[Perky]

9. But there is a flip side

For whatever it is worth. a long drawn out primary schedule provides a real vetting of top tier candidates. If someone gets a head of steam going into mega-Tuesday it might all be over by 2/6. rendering the last 20 tilts meaningless or at best "pro-forma". I don't mind a supur duper Tuesday. I just don't like it being so close to the first five contests. We do not really have a second chance if the presumptive self-implode on 2/10.


If we had mega-tuesday at the end of February I would be less fearful of what might occur.

But consider a scenario where our top three are essentially tied at 25% after Iowa and Edwards wins Nevada because he put in the most time there with the casino workers. Hillary gets to 30% in NH but Obama and Edwards tie for second. Next up is South Carolina and Florida. Obama Surges in South Carolina and in Florida Richardson pulls 22% and Hillary finishes fourth at 20% and Obama and Edwards both have 25%. The remaining 8 percent gets split

No clear frontrunner going into super tuesday just three days later and there is a presidential debate the night before the Superbowl and it wind up getting very ugly. No presumptive going into 2/5 and no presumptive afterwords and no way to lock it up with what is left to divvy up.

The scary thing about this is that in times past the "dead period" is the time when the presumptive goes out with everyone's fundrasing lists and starts raising megabucks for the fall campaign. The convention is not until the end of August, 2008 (done so that that the presumptive nominee can get more money before being officially tapped) Now those dollars are going to be fought over tooth and naileffectively killing the ability to amass a big war chest for the battle with the GOP.

Clinton can't really turn those dollars over to Obama or the party or vice versa. Even more so if the nomination process turns into a bloodbath and polarizes the party they would not want to do it even if they could.

Mind you that the GOP is in the precisely the same place and maybe even worse off. But still frontloading the primaries could create a stalemate situation that hurts the eventual nominee.