Who do you THINK is going to win the Democratic nomination for President?

[Freddie Stubbs]

Poll question: Who do you THINK is going to win the Democratic nomination for President?

Not who you want to win, or who you are planning on voting for.

[Dawgs]

1. No Kucinich votes yet?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. Nor should there be.

Michael Vick probably has a better shot at winning the nomination than Kucinich.

[AnotherGreenWorld]

21. I like Kucinich, but how can 11 people honestly believe he's going to win?

And 35 people really think Edwards is going to win?

I think Obama supporters, a mere 9 votes, are the most realistic...

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. Gore, if he runs.

If he doesn't, I think it will default to Edwards. Too many people have too many doubts about Clinton's ability to win the GE (think Dean 2004), meaning her momentum will soon peter out. And Obama has way too many concerns about experience and being black for him to get the nod when all is said and done. That clears out room for Edwards to walk out with the nomination.

That said, I could see a dark horse, such as Biden, who is surprisingly turning a few heads with his debate appearances, come out of nowhere. I don't think many people have much conviction behind their horses right now.

[Freddie Stubbs]

4. I doubt that Gore will run, but

thought that it would be interesting to include him. I may post another poll in a few days without him and compare the results.

[Dawgs]

5. Biden's debate appearances? You know he got booed three different times in the last debate?

Is that the kind of performance you're talking about?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

7. I didn't know that.

I haven't watched the entirety of the debates, but when I did, he was getting some pretty loud cheers. And I've read some good things about Biden too. I'll defer to your assessment though.

[surfermaw]

36. We need Biden, especially if Gore doesn't get in, he would make an excellent V.P.

[saltpoint]

40. If Joe Biden is not our nominee then I hope whoever is will ask him

on board as either veep, or Attorney General, or Sec. of State, etc.

He's a good man.

[dugggy]

22. Dean did NOT lose in 2004

The big loser of 2004 was John Kerry. I have always thought
Dean would have done better in GE than Kerry.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

23. If Dean didn't lose, what did he win? (nt)

[dugggy]

27. Thinking Kerry was the better choice because of his military service

democratic nomination was given to Kerry. But Dean had the
ability to energize the base a lot better and would have done
better than Kerry in General Election. So the big losers were
democrats, not Dean.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

28. Nice dodge, but if Dean didn't lose, what did he win?

Saying there were bigger losers than Dean doesn't change the fact that Dean lost, no matter how much twisted logic you try to apply to it.

[dugggy]

30. No twist,,,,, Dean had a better chance to win than Kerry in 2004

By denying the nomination to Dean, we all made a huge blunder.
We thought Kerry with his Viet-Nam military experience was the
right candidate in the post-911 atmosphere. IMHO Dean was the
real loser in 2004, it was us democrats. Denying Dean the chance
to win W-H does NOT make him a loser.

And Dean did win the chair of DNC AND one of the most enthusiastic
following of democrats and money.

[Totally Committed]

6. I think if Gore or another not in the race at the moment does not enter,

Mrs. Clinton will buy the nomination out from under the Party base.

Pure and simple.

TC

[Debi]

10. I don't think she's called Mrs. Clinton anymore

I think her title is Senator Clinton.

[Totally Committed]

11. She seems to be campaigning as "Mrs. Clinton"

And, people here object to "Hillary", so that's what I call her. Now you object to "Mrs. Clinton".

Oh, well. Whatchagonnado?

TC

[Debi]

13. I don't object if that's what you want to call a person who has achieved

higher elected office. We'll just call Bill Clinton 'Mr. Clinton' from now on

and Mr. Biden
and Mr. Dodd
and Mr. Edwards
and Mr. Gravel
and Mr. Kucinich
and Mr. Richardson

[Freddie Stubbs]

20. She is cited as 'Mrs. Clinton' in the Congressional Record:

http://www.uspublicserviceacademy.org/CR032207.pdf

[AlCzervik]

8. to be totally honest---i have no idea at all, i don't even have a "Gut" feeling yet.

[windbreeze]

9. seems apparent to me...the nominee will be

HRC....are there any others in the race?...the most we hear about them, is how far they are behind in relation to her...so what's that indicate? that she is the chosen one...go ahead, someone/anyone, prove me wrong..wb

[emilyg]

18. Don't want to prove you wrong

Clinton and Edwards or Obama as vp

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

29. People said the same about Dean about this time in 2003

From an August 29, 2003 poll:

Howard Dean - 25%
Dick Gephardt - 21%
John Kerry - 16%
Joe Lieberman - 12%
John Edwards - 6%

http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/2003_08.html

I think we all know how that turned out in the end. Kerry and Edwards didn't even combine to form the lead at this point in 2003, and yet they were the only two standing when all was said and done. HRC has a LOOOONG way to go.

[saltpoint]

42. Thank you for posting that poll. A very interesting look at things

in August prior to the Iowa caucuses in January.

In the August poll, Joe Lieberman is running at 12%. In January, Dick Gephardt finished at 11%.

That's a remarkably vast spectrum for opinion-shifting.

[saltpoint]

41. Frontrunners don't always win. Horses can come from far back in

the pack to finish first.

Too early to lay down a lot of money on the eventual winner of either major party's nominations.

Imagine -- this is just a speculative notion here -- imagine that the Nobel Prize does in fact go to Al Gore in the early fall.

Think of what a headline that would be. George W. Bush picks up the Washington POST in the Oval Office and there's the headline with the man he cheated being awarded the most prestigious honor on earth.

A week later, after extraordinarily positive media attention and buzz, Al Gore holds a press conference and announces that he will seek the presidency in 2008, not only to reclaim the job he was rightly elected to hold but also to do what he humanly can to help lead the United States and its worthy citizens out of the maelstrom of lies and darkness visited upon it by 6-8 years of the Bush administration.

Imagine also that Gore announces that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has agreed to run as a vice presidential consideration.

Imagine the impact an Al Gore-Robert Kennedy Jr. prospective ticket would have on the U.S. media and the Democratic primary landscape.

[windbreeze]

43. I might actually have to vote....

IF that happens...I said in my original post, that I wanted someone to prove me wrong...I guess only time can actually do that...I am well aware of what happened last time around..I remember percentages going into Iowa...and what happened...interesting scenario's being presented here...I just figured with Reps and Dems alike supporting/funding Ms.Clinton...that she was already the designated nominee..and nothing would change it...but it is true, that there are always unknown unknowns...wb

[Hippo_Tron]

12. Honestly I don't know, Democratic Primaries have a history of the frontrunner collapsing

Unless the front runner is an incumbent President or VP. Of course we've never had a former First Lady running. I do much better speculating the odds of the GOP Primary.

[SharonRB]

16. I hope history is a good indication!

Run, Al, run!

[MrSlayer]

14. If Gore doesn't enter Edwards will be the winner.

So I voted for him.

[SharonRB]

15. If Gore enters, he'll get the nomination

If not, I'm afraid it's going to be Hillary and we'll wind up with President Romney or President Giuliani. :scared:

I wish Kucinich were more electable -- he's been growing on me and has moved up to my second choice, I think.

[DeeDeeNY]

17. It's anybody's guess

But unless we have fair and transparently counted votes, whoever it is won't have a chance.

[FlyingTiger]

19. Whoever the main challenger is to Hillary when the primaries roll around.

If it's Obama, he'll get it. If it's Gore, he'll get it. If it's Edwards, he'll get it. And if it's someone else, well, he'll get it, too.

I just firmly believe that the amount of true support Hillary has is grossly overestimated, and she's in for a rude awakening when people actually start casting ballots.

[saltpoint]

24. Clark, Hart, and Gore are all maybes at this point, with Al Gore the

wronged messiah of the 2000 election and the one of those three best-positioned to enter the race with an already-established constituency and a very high level of support.

A lot of county Dems would like to see Al Gore in the race. They'd be supportive of Clark and Hart as well, but Gore's a favorite. Many of them, after all, worked and volunteered for Gore in 2000 and felt that the Supreme Court undid their work and their contribution. They feel the messianic victimhood from the Scalia faction on the bench and are understandably unforgetful. In 2004, campaigning for Kerry-Edwards, Al Gore told audiences, "Don't let the Supreme Court choose the next president, and don't let this president (Bush) choose the next Supreme Court."

Iowa is going to be hard-fought turf. My candidate, John Edwards, is in a very enviable position there, which is not to say that HClinton, Richardson, Obama, and Biden could not be competitive. I expect they will be, in fact, and any of those five could win. Had Evan Bayh remained in the race, he would have made it a viable 6; his old man Birch did pretty well in Iowa some years ago, and many Iowans like the Bayhs just fine.

If suddenly Al Gore gets in the race, say in October, he'd have to decide whether to compete in Iowa or not. New Hampshire is ready-made for a competitive Gore entry. He whupped Bill Bradley there in 2000 and folks still think very highly of Al in NH.

If Edwards wins in Iowa and Bill Richardson wins in Nevada a couple days later, and Al Gore enters the race and sets New Hampshire as his first arena of competition, I don't believe Hillary Clinton will be the party's nominee.

So while Clinton holds a handsome lead at the moment, the nomination is very much up for grabs and will be even more volatile a contest if Gore jumps in this fall.

[Vidar]

25. Clinton by every dirty trick & corrupt ply there is. Kucinich if there is

any justice or hope for this country.

[LibDemAlways]

26. If Gore stays out of it, Edwards.

The corporate media talking head whores are going to be in for a shock when the votes start coming in.

[Strawman]

31. Clinton unless she stumbles badly early

Because she has the most superdelegates and is pursuing them more aggressively than the other candidates. These are the people who have proven that they can make people turn out.

That could change if she loses Iowa and New Hampshire, but I think unless the Edwards/Obama forces unite, she'll win.

[slick8790]

32. Edwards if he wins Iowa, Clinton if anyone else wins lowa.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[elizm]

34. True to form...

The Democrats will nominate the least electable candidate, and the Republican or Independent will win. Not sure whether it is stupidity or stubborness. But when they do, I will just sit this one out. Don't count on me to be an enabler to the maddness.

[Freddie Stubbs]

37. Like they did in 1992 and 1996?

:shrug:

[GreenTea]

35. "Why Rove Likes Hillary".....

Earl Ofari Hutchinson is an author and political analyst.

Alternet:

"Rove banks that though some conservative Republicans jumped Bush's ship in the 2006 midterm elections and voted for Democrats, many would almost certainly jump back to the Republicans in 2008 with Hillary as candidate. That would make it virtually impossible for the Democrats to pry the crucial one, let alone, two states away from the Southern Republican bloc.

The potential Democratic loss of that big a swath of electoral votes going in the presidential election door can be dumped squarely on the deep and resonant hate Bill residue that still tarnishes her. That hatred was driven by the GOP's distaste for a Democrat in the White House savvy enough to pilfer some of their core issues and give better voice to them than they did.

When Hillary hit back and branded the hate Clinton's campaign a vast right wing conspiracy, the Hillary bashers jerked into paroxysms of rage. Though the impeachment drive against Bill eventually crashed and burned, her political activism marked her as someone capable of stepping out of Bill's shadow and carving out her own political path. This made her even more of an inviting target. That hasn't changed in the years since she left the White House.

In a well-publicized warning and taunt at a conservative confab in September 2006 just weeks before the 2006 mid-term elections, evangelical idol Jerry Falwell tarred Clinton with the devil image and refused to take it back when he got flack for it. A month after she announced her candidacy in 2007 polarization was still the watchword with Hillary. A Post-ABC poll found that those who liked her dead heated with those who didn't (49 to 48 percent).

If the black and Latino respondents were taken out of the poll the dislike of her among whites would have been crushing. Hillary has been nonplussed by the smear attacks. In March 2007 she again leveled the right wing conspiracy charge against the GOP. She accused them of jamming phones and of voter harassment and intimidation against the Democrats in the New Hampshire election in 2002. The early polls in 2007 showed that in a one to one contest with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain, Hillary trailed badly.

In one poll, a near majority of respondents gave her little chance to win against them. Only the two failed Democratic presidential candidates, Al Gore and John Kerry, and the long out of power, even more polarizing, Newt Gingrich got higher negatives as potential presidential candidates. That was more amazing since Gore and Kerry hadn't expressed the remotest thought of running and Gingrich made mostly empty noise about getting in the race.

In a straight up match with Rudy Giuliani, Gallup's Annual Minority Rights and Relations Survey in July 2007 had him edging her by a couple of percentage points. That only told a fragment of the story. Take away the Hispanic and black vote, and Giuliani destroyed her. Non-Hispanic whites, overwhelmingly, backed him. Giuliani even noses her out among college educated Hispanics.

Overall, he got nearly one-third of the Hispanic vote even though in one national poll in July 2007 only 11 percent of Hispanics self-identified as Republicans. He got that despite the fact that he took the hardest of hard line stances against the immigration reform bill in the Senate in May 2007. He went so far at one point and called the immigration bill a "typical Washington mess."

There are also mixed signals if whether being a woman will help more than hurt her even with women in a wide segment of America. In a Newsweek poll in July 2007, fewer voters said that they would vote for a woman candidate for president than a black candidate."

More:

http://www.alternet.org/

[quinnox]

38. Hillary Clinton is the strong favorite to win

Obama I am no longer seeing as a possibility.

Edwards is the only candidate who can possibly beat Hillary (barring a Gore entry which is increasingly remote) but it is going to be difficult to pull off.

[barack4prez]

39. Hillary is going to win

flat out.
What a waste.
In our lifetimes, we will never again have a chance like this to change things.
If Hillary is elected, we blew it.

[marlakay]

44. Gore knows Hillary's secrets

someone said that Hillary would play dirty but Gore has to know secrets she wouldn't want out and could easily say lay off or else....