"Her disapprovals are the 2-ton elephant in the room but a large part of the party's base seems oblivious to those numbers at this point," one Democratic strategist told me. Other Democrats express some concern about her high negatives but say she still has time to turn them around.
"People are concerned about her unfavorables, but I think it is way too early to use that as an indicator of what is going to happen in November should she become the nominee," said Bud Jackson, a Democratic media campaign adviser. "Right now these polls are based on what people have already lived through with Hillary Clinton as first lady. It's going to be different when she is standing up as the candidate as opposed to first lady," Mr. Jackson told me.
Still, he added, "I think
should give you pause, but I don't think it's alarm bells ringing off. There's time and opportunity for Hillary to improve those numbers."
But seasoned campaign reporters say election history shows that's rarely the case. "Her negative ratings are higher than those of her husband, former President Clinton, former President H. W. Bush and 2004 Democratic nominee John Kerry at the end of their campaigns," said Associated Press political reporter Ron Fournier, a veteran of many presidential elections. "A candidate's unfavorability scores almost always climb during campaigns. If the pattern holds, Clinton has a historically high hurdle to overcome," Mr. Fournier reported last week.
But more is at stake than just the presidential race, Democrats say. A weak nominee at the top of the ticket can threaten the party's candidates further down ballot.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/08/hillarys_high_negatives.html
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