Clinton Far From Inevitable. Just Ask Gary Hart

[illinoisprogressive]

Further, the profusion of primary contests slated for Feb. 5 should impart a real advantage to a well-financed front-runner - as long as she emerges from the first few contests intact, that is.

But if Clinton is in an enviable position, she is far from inevitable.

Just ask Gary Hart.

"I went through the same kind of experience in the fall of 1983 with Vice President Mondale," recalls the erstwhile Colorado senator.

As a former vice president, Mondale was treated as the prohibitive front-runner. Still, after Hart finished a distant second in Iowa, his own campaign took off like a prairie fire. He upended Mondale in New Hampshire, then rode that momentum to a strong showing on Super Tuesday. The two battled all the way to the last primaries, and beyond. Despite the support of the Democratic establishment, Mondale barely staved Hart off.

"Voters have a very strange way of not listening to the pundits," Hart notes wryly.

Part of the disconnect lies in the great disparity in attention currently being paid to the race. Activists and junkies have been following every twist and turn for months. But what one hears from everyday people is that many simply haven't tuned in in a serious way yet. Certainly that's the message I got from students I interviewed at the University of New Hampshire last week; most had just begun thinking about the race.

"The full-time professional political aparatus . . . lives and breathes this stuff, but a whole lot of people aren't even going to pay attention until after the World Series," says Hart.

What's more, in New Hampshire, where primary voters pride themselves on watching and weighing the candidates for months before making up their minds for good, it's doubly dangerous to mistake early inclinations for final voting decisions.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/10/05/clinton_is_far_from_inevitable/

[ccpup]

1. I think the sense of inevitability

attributed to Clinton stems more from her detractors than from her or her supporters.

[liberalmuse]

2. My honest opinion...

though it isn't worth much. I should say this is based on a lot of my experience in phone banking--Clinton is solid and has by far the best chances of anyone. Sadly, I do not have faith in Americans and this is for very good reason. They will chose the brand name, and the Clinton name is IT. The good news is, she will beat any Republican running, thanks to the unbelievable stupidity of our fellow citizens regarding "the brand name". Luckily, this time it works in our favor. I guess. I do not even think I'm being cynical here. This is the gods honest truth. Americans are the most brainwashed people on earth.

[Froward69]

7. every cycle

i try to believe otherwise. but sadly i have to agree with you. the name recognition sinks the true,honest leaders from comming to the forfront.

[smalll]

3. Hillary is clearly the Mondale in this race, not the Hart. The Kerry, not the Dean. How people

can still pretend otherwise I have no idea.

[liberalmuse]

5. Unfortunately, you are right.

I know people HATE that this is true, but it is. I don't believe anyone stating this fact is diminishing the other candidates. I'll vote for someone other than Hillary in the primary, but I'm not fooling myself. She's going to be our candidate. It sucks being a realist. And with that, I'm going to have another glass of wine because I'm still semi-sober, and that is unacceptable these days.

[Debi]

14. Hart/Mondale

You actually remember this? My husband talks about it all the time. Mondale won Iowa with a HUGE majority of the delegates (50%?) and Hart got second place with something like 16% of the delegates. What was the story? Not Mondale's huge win, but Hart's second place finish. As you know, Hart went on to win in New Hampshire and the race continued on.

[smalll]

15. Quite true, but Mondale did eventually grind down Hart and win -

Hillary, like Mondale, has the level of organization and broad support from Democrats - from rank-and-file "beer track" voters up to the big-name endorsements - that will guarantee her the nomination.

Of course, the happy thing is, she will be running in the general election not against a popular Reagan looking for four more years, but against one of the no-hopers the Repubs currently have on offer after 8 years of Dubya. She's the Mondale who will actually take the White House.

[goodgd_yall]

4. That's what I've been saying---voters are not paying attention

And that's why we have the frontrunner we have. There aren't that many "political junkies" out there who keep up with every debate, interview, and pick away at every statement and vote like we do here at DU.

They start paying more attention the closer it gets to their primary. But then the influence of previous primaries takes over. I wish it wasn't so, but there it is.

[Gman]

6. Hart was cocky and foolish

he basicly told the press "catch me if you can" and they did.

Hillary is no fool. Regardless, anything can happen. Something tragic could happen like breast cancer, or something else that strikes someone close to her in such a way as to make her decide to drop out.

The race for the nomination is Hillary's to lose. Barring any uncontrollable circumstances, Hillary will remain the front runner.

[democrat2thecore]

11. Wrong Year

Hart was describing the '84 campaign in which he came within a hair of winning the nomination. The "Monkey Business" episode was in the '88 cycle.

[Gman]

20. I stand corrected

Several of us as union members met with Gary Hart in late 1983. Only problem was, and Hart conceded it, was the AFL-CIO was already set to endorse Mondale and ultimately did thereby denying us the opportunity to work for who we wanted to work for in the primaries.

Later, the AFL-CIO said it would never do that again, and they so far haven't.

[MonkeyFunk]

8. Exactly right...

if Hillary gets caught on a boat with a beautiful young woman on her lap, it's all over for her.

[rinsd]

10. !!!

:spray:

[AnotherGreenWorld]

21. lmao, I love your sig.

Did you make that up? Very clever.

[rinsd]

23. Its not my creation

I think kudos have to go with Terry Pratchett. I am unsure where I heard it originally.

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/23897.html

[Cameron27]

17. That's right

:rofl:

[AtomicKitten]

9. After 2004, I am convinced anything can happen.

[democrat2thecore]

12. That's right! Dean had it wrapped up. We all remember. -nt

[Cha]

13. Did Gary Hart mean..

pundits are useless?

What if people who didn't want hillary for the nominee just ignored those threads where..hillary is getting warmer in New Hampshire? :silly:

[BigDDem]

16. I'm pretty sure Hillary is not dating

Donna Rice. Nuff said.

[CTD]

18. But if she were...

It might help her - it'd make her look more human.

[flpoljunkie]

19. John Kerry also weighs in on the primary process...

John Kerry, who bounced back to win the 2004 nomination despite being widely written off in the fall of 2003, credits Clinton with running a strong and capable campaign, but notes: "Crunch time really won't come until the last six weeks or so." Only then, he says, will voters truly zero in.

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2007/10/05/clinton_is_far_from_inevitable/

[Debi]

22. six weeks?

more like three weeks...:crazy: