New ABC News/WaPo Poll: Hillary - 53 (!!), Obama - 23, Edwards - 10

[rinsd]

DEMS – Unlike the Republican contest, this poll finds no upheaval in national preferences in the Democratic race, where, again among likely voters, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by more than 2-1, 53-23 percent, with John Edwards at 10 percent, all essentially the same as last month.

DEMOCRATS – This poll finds more clear-cut preferences on the Democratic side, where the contest looks very much now like it has since September. Clinton’s overall lead is buttressed by very large advantages as the best experienced candidate, the strongest leader and the most electable in a general election. She also has a significant lead on empathy, wider than when that attribute last was tested in June.

Clinton has a much narrower eight-point advantage on honesty and trustworthiness, long a weaker suit for her. And Obama runs evenly with her in one last attribute, being the “most inspiring” candidate.
On issues, again Clinton prevails with very large leads in trust to handle health care, the economy, Iraq and terrorism alike.

While Clinton leads among both sexes, she again has a bigger advantage among women than men. Indeed she leads in this poll across demographic groups, including a 13-point advantage among African-Americans, who’ve been oversampled in ABC/Post polls all year for more reliable analysis.

METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Dec. 6-9, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,136 adults, including an oversample of African-Americans for a total of 205 black respondents (weighted back to their correct share of the national population). The results have a three-point error margin for the full sample, 4 points for the sample of 610 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 5 points for the sample of 409 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 4.5 points for the sample of 429 likely Democratic primary voters and 5.5 points for the sample of 293 likely Republican primary voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.
Analysis by Gary Langer.

Something is screwy with the pdf. Go here to Real Clear's latest polls page and click the link there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Wow

~

[BootinUp]

24. word. nt

[Maven]

2. Link doesn't work

:shrug:

[gateley]

3. There's something screwy with the link, FYI. nt

[rinsd]

6. Fixed now.

[gateley]

11. Thanks. nt

[cali]

4. I really think national polls are pretty meaningless at this point. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Why?

I understand the argument that if Obama wins IA and NH he has momentum... But will that give him enough momentum to erase a thirty point deficit...

Are Joe and Jane in Reseda, California going to say" I'm not voting for Hillary as planned because she lost Iowa and New Hampshire"?

Maybe...

I'd still rather have the thirty point national lead...

[cali]

19. well, I've never put any stock in national polls

I think they lag well behind the actual status of the candidates. I only pay attention to the state polls which much more accurately capture the sense of the voters in one specific district.

[TheWraith]

25. Most polls don't show a 30 point gap, they show a 10 point gap.

Which is WELL within Iowa bump territory. The thing is that whoever loses Iowa, particularly if the were a frontrunner, is perceived as weak and wounded. It's what happened to Dean in 2004. He was on top, then got smacked bad in Iowa, and ended up losing everything but his home state.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Dean Never Led By Thirty Points This Close To Iowa

In fact at this time in 03 he was losing by twenty nine points to Hillary Clinton:


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm


As to your contention that Hillary's lead is ten percent nationally ... In aggregate polling it's 18.5%:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[TheWraith]

38. She's not leading by thirty points, she's leading by ten.

I know you love that average, but the last three new polls to come out have her at 10, 11, and 30. Which one's the outlier?

[MadBadger]

42. though one came out with her up 17.

You have to take that into consideration as well. That is why I like saying shes up 10-15 points.

[rinsd]

30. RCP's average is 18.5 for Clinton's lead based on average of last 7 polls

Poll	       Date          Sample    Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Biden	Spread
RCP Average	11/30 - 12/09	-	43.6	25.1	11.9	3.3	3.1	Clinton +18.5
CNN	        12/06 - 12/09	RV	40	30	14	4	4	Clinton +10.0
ABC/Wash Post	12/06 - 12/09	429 LV	53	23	10	3	3	Clinton +30.0
CBS News/NYT	12/05 - 12/09	417 LV	44	27	11	2	2	Clinton +17.0
AP-Ipsos	12/03 - 12/05	469 RV	45	23	12	4	2	Clinton +22.0
LAT/Bloomberg	11/30 - 12/03	529 LV	45	21	11	3	3	Clinton +24.0
USAT/Gallup	11/30 - 12/02	494 A	39	24	15	4	4	Clinton +15.0
Ras (Tues)     4 Day Tracking	750 LV	39	28	10	3	4	Clinton +11.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[MadBadger]

34. Three polls taken the same time, One has it at a 10 point lead, one has it at 17 and the other at 30

What to believe?

[rinsd]

41. Could be an outlier.

Thankfully :sarcasm: we will see about 4 or 5 national polls a week to confirm the results.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

43. A Reasonable Person Would Average Them Or Throw Out The High And Low One

~

[MadBadger]

45. Then you have to add the rasmussen one i forgot that has it at 11

That would mean she is leading by 14 points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. Real Clear Politics Has It At 18.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html


I'm not making it up...It's right there^^^^^^^^^^^

[MadBadger]

54. I read that, but they take a mean

you were saying we should basically take a median, where there are four polls, you take the high and the low out. They also go back to Nov 30th, While I am counting the polls that are from Dec 5-9.

[TheWraith]

37. That's going back to November 30th.

The most recent two polls, not counting this one, say 10 and 11 points respectively.

[rinsd]

39. 3 polls were taken at the same time. They show 10, 17 & 30 pt leads.

Then you have Rasmussen's daily tracking in which after a huge fall she is ticking upwards again in which she currently leads by 11.

[TheWraith]

47. And that's why one discards outliers like this one.

Because every so often a poll varies so substantially from the results of other polls that it has to be considered meaningless. 30 points versus 10, 11, or even 17 is well into the range of an outlier. Same thing the other way--if a new poll came out today saying that it was a dead heat, it would have to be considered meaningless unless there was other evidence to support such a radical shift. There's no such evidence in this case.

[rinsd]

51. So why don't you discard the 10 point poll which is only supported by Rasmussen?

Other previous polling showed her lead in the high teens to low 20s thru the month of Nov even after she saw a dip. And we have a poll taken at the same time as both the 30 pt lead poll and the 10 point lead poll, that shows a 17 point lead.

"It really does your cause no good when you seem desperate to make a clearly dubious poll seem meaningful."

Why is this poll clearly dubious but the CNN poll is somehow beyond reproach?

So I am desperate for posting a poll just released but you flogging a poll (which also seems to be an outlier) as a counterattack is what exactly?

Also the WaPo/ABC poll is of likely Dem primary voters while the CNN poll is registered Dem voters.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. Ha

In 00 Rasmussen's poll had it Bush* 49% -Gore 40% in his final pre-election poll...


He also has Bush*'s job approval at 36% which is about six to eight points higher than aggregate polling and constantly shows Reps doing better against Dems in head to head presidential match ups....


What makes Republimussen sacrsosanct?

[rinsd]

60. Ras had a pretty good record in 2004 and 2006.

His approval ratings seem to differ in their methodology but I think his election polls have been fairly good.

[TheWraith]

82. Because Rasmussen's data is a 4-day rolling poll.

In essence, a new poll every day, correlated with the data from the last three days. These have shown to be pretty good in recent years. It also reflects the newest changes, compared to data which might otherwise be several days old.

And that number isn't only supported by Rasmussen. There's also other polls showing her at 11.

Speaking of which, the latest Ras tracking has Clinton's lead down to 8.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

64. Then It's A Seventeen Point Lead

You can't count Republimussen twice because it comes out every day...That's not science...That's tomfoolery...

Here- the last four polls

Ras - 11% lead for Clinton

CNN - 10% " "

NYT - 17% " "

WAPO - 30% " "

17% LEAD

[TheWraith]

81. Um, no. Rasmussen is actually the most reliable here, since it's a rolling tracking poll. NT

[creeksneakers2]

67. deleted by author

[MadBadger]

68. All evidence Ive seen is contrary to this

Do you have a link to back your finding up?

[creeksneakers2]

70. No. I must have miscounted. Deleted the post.

Thanks for catching my mistake though. :)

[Renew Deal]

33. Because you can't get a straight answer.

I understand there's outliers in polling, but somebody is significantly wrong. The question is who? ;)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

46. WAPO Has A Good Track Record

It could still be an outlier...I suspect the results shocked them and they checked it twice... All we need to do is relax and wait for new polls to come out...

It could be there are two races going on... The race as seen among the media and other elites who see Hillary faltering and the race among ordinary folks who still will be voting for her...

[Radical Activist]

52. They're meaningless at every point during the primary. n/t

[quinnox]

5. 30 point lead? ouch

Hillary seems to be in the catbird seat.

[MadBadger]

7. Can anybody say outlier?

[Donnachaidh]

8. christmas parties starting early at WaPo and ABC News

They really should lay off the recreational drugs until the holiday is here. :rofl:

[Skip Intro]

9. K&R.

Well, things aren't quite as dire as some of the Os would have us believe, eh?

[Adelante]

10. Huge

No getting around it.

[rinsd]

13. In other polling news Survey USA finds a tightening race in SC

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e2d87209-9980-4e95-a60f-2f6a5468164e

:hi:

[MadBadger]

18. I dont like that poll

There are too many decided people in that poll and it probably because of the way they phrased the question. They said "Do you support Clinton, Obama, Edwards, or somebody else. Sounds like Survey USA has cut out everybody else.

[rinsd]

21. Nice pickup. I had not noticed that.

[Adelante]

55. Seeing that numeral "4" was a charge - lol

He's doing very well in some of the issue categories, too. Thanks, rinsd. :hi:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. They Nailed The 04 Election

http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm#Pollster


Maybe it's an outlier... I'm sure they were surprised by the numbers and checked them twice...

[rinsd]

20. As hnmnf pointed out it limits the choices to Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Other Democrat.

[MadBadger]

31. Im talking about the SC poll though, not the National one.

[rinsd]

35. Yes, I know. DSB was pointing out SurveyUSA has a good track record in terms of predictions.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. I Was Referring To The WAPO Poll

Survey USA has a good track record as well,ergo:


http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/SUSA2006ElectionReportCard.htm


http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/Scorecard2004AllGeneralX.html

[durrrty libby]

14. K & R

[BeyondGeography]

16. Significant lead in "empathy"

That's funny.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. Empathy Is Powerful Stuff

I always look at the question, "cares about people like me"....

[BeyondGeography]

66. No doubt...but she would appear to lag in this area

Peter Hart's focus group findings here have more than a ring of truth to them:

==The concerns about Clinton, 60, a New York senator, are that she is devious, calculating and, fairly or not, a divisive figure in American politics.

Those are a lot tougher to overcome.

It was revealing, too, when Hart pushed them to envision these senators as leaders of the country or, as he put it, their ``boss.'' Obama, they say, would be inspirational, motivating, charismatic and compassionate. After praising Clinton's experience and intelligence, they say she would be demanding, difficult, maybe even a little scary.==

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anRcoLyfN0VM#

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. I Would Have Just Asked The Question

" Who cares more about people like you"


Maybe voters see Hillary as their "mom".... I have to think about it...Moms tell you what to do but they are always there when you need them...


Empathy, though, is powerful stuff...That's why Bill Clinton was so successful...

[BeyondGeography]

71. An interesting view

and good for her if she scores well on empathy. I find it surprising, but I'm in partisan mode right now. The truth may lie somewhere north of Hart and south of this poll finding.

[suston96]

17. We won't be hearing or seeing these numbers....

...on Cable news or the like....Tweety?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Ha

When a WAPO poll showed Obama with a lead in Iowa Tweey said , quote "that's a solid poll"...

[weeve]

22. These "polls" are ridiculous.

I would expect nothing less from ABC, the Post, WSJ, CNN, Fox, etc. Their agenda has been clear from the start. The day I start believing in their "results" is a sad day indeed.

Funny how the Clintonites are always relying so heavily on these Big Media "Polls", while their candidate continues to self-destruct in the eyes of the actual public.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. So The Media Polls Showing Obama Neck And Neck In IA, NH, And SC Are Spurious Too?

And if the polls are spurious why do the final polls always match up well with the actual results?

[99th_Monkey]

23. Yawn! These polls are meaningless, except to mislead voters

let me know when pollsters include cell phones in their samples and I'll maybe be a little more interested.

as it is, they only call land-lines, more typically used by older, conventional types; not cell phones used by younger
voters.


even if cell phones were included however, I think polls should be abolished, except for the one on election day.

[rinsd]

28. Or you could read up on how pollsters are dealing with issues of cell phones.

Its not like they are unaware of the issue.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=276

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem

[99th_Monkey]

72. In your article's own words, cell phone voters are

"younger, less affluent, less likely to be married or to own their home, and more liberal on many political questions."

and pardon me for not being surprised that studies by the pollsters themselves find that including cell phone users "changes the overall results of the poll by no more than one percentage point on any of nine key political questions included in the study." (nevermind that it's "issues" not "candidates" addressed here)

the people who make money doing polls wouldn't have a vested interest in
dismissing this "challenge" to the veracity of their findings, now would they?
:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

besides, like I already said, I think it's despicable how polls are being used to ID "front-runners" and ignore the best candidates in the field
such as Biden and Kucinich.

[AZ Criminal JD]

44. The cell phone problem has been around for awhile

But younger voters, especially those with just cell phones, don't vote in any significant numbers. Older land-line voters do.

[Cameron27]

26. Wow

K&R

[Catherine Vincent]

27. Everything is working according to the plan.

Says Sean Hannity. :)

[Cameron27]

40. Hannity's gnashing his teeth right now lol.

[ronnykmarshall]

74. Buuuuwhahahahha!

All HAIL!

THE PLAN!

[Renew Deal]

32. WTF?

Where did that come from? The CBS\NY Times poll seems to fall in the middle.

CBS News/NY Times 12/05 - 12/09 417 LV 44 27 11 2 2 Clinton +17.0

Also, the ABC poll for republicans is much different than the other two for republicans over the same time period. There's something weird about how they're polling. That's doesn't mean innacurate. Just different.

[Radical Activist]

48. National polls still don't matter.

Never have and never will until we adopt a national primary.

Actually, they do matter in one aspect. When Hillary loses Iowa the fact that she's the "frontrunner" in national polls will make the loss more dramatic and damaging to her campaign.

[mtnsnake]

63. Hell no. They don't matter. Not when Hillary is the one out in front by a country mile (snicker)

[Radical Activist]

73. Or when they showed Dean leading the natinal polls in December of '03.

Nope. Didn't matter then either.

I'm sure Hillary will win the national primary...oh wait...

[rinsd]

75. Dean wasn't leading national polls in Dec 03. Undecided was by some margin.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

In fact Undecided was not overtaken in some polls until New Hampshire.

[The River]

49. Are These The Same Media Outlets

that everyone bashes as being too conservative, too
much under corporate control whenever they print unfavorable propaganda?
If so, why do you believe this batch of favorable propaganda?

[SIMPLYB1980]

56. K&R

[antiimperialist]

61. The CNN was conducted in the same period (Dec. 9-12) and Hil is up by only 10%

and it's more reliable since likely voters were used, as opposed to WAPO's registered voters.

[rinsd]

62. You have it backwards. WaPo/ABC is likely voters, CNN is registered voters (nt)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

65. In Any Case Registered And Likely Voter Models Usually Differ By Two To Four Points Not Thirty

Points...

There's no research to suggest that the preference of likely and registered voters differ by twenty percentage points...

[Carrieyazel]

76. Rasmussen National Hillary: 36%. 12/12

No way she's anywhere near 53%. Big media polls are to be ignored. Forget about them.

[Cosmocat]

77. Not a chance ...

Not a chance ...

Hill might be ahead, but NOT A CHANCE she is at 53 percent, and that there is a THIRTY point gap between her and Obama ...

Seriously, how anyone, a Hill supporter or not, would allow themselves to believe this is just beyond comprehension ... I don't have a horse in this race, I am just waiting to see who clears and will support them 100 percent ... But, it just defies any reason to think these numbers are accurate ...

You get numbers like this, and you have to wash them and go and do it over ...

[pdrichards114]

78. ABC, Owned by Disney, is once again full of SHIT!!!!!

[THUNDER HANDS]

79. interesting

i'm not sure i buy it, but it's interesting nontheless.

[krkaufman]

80. Doesn't really mean a thing, unless it translates to victory in Iowa or NH ...

... as was shown in 2004.

[ClarkUSA]

83. Brand new Iowa poll: New Iowa Poll: Obama at 33% -> leads Hillary by 8 points (way outside the MOE)

Link: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3827228

Hmmm.... which one is the more relevant indicator, I wonder? :-)