History shows why the Register endorsement is so pivotal

[quinnox]

First I want to congratulate Hillary and her supporters for this important endorsement. This came out of left field, and was a big surprise. I expected Edwards to get it since they liked him last time.

Anyway, I was thrilled when I read the news and I found an article on why this endorsement is considered so important.

It was in the local paper so no link.

"The Des Moines Register has a 20 year history of issuing endorsements for presidential candidates in the Iowa caucuses. And while the effect of those endorsements is hard to gauge, it is nonetheless true that in all but one instance, the candidates who have received them went on to either win the caucuses or finish a strong second.

Though the Register's editorial board leans leftward, it typically endorses a candidate in each of the two parties caucuses', refraining only when a candidate is running unopposed in Iowa (as in President Bush's reelection campaign four years ago, for example)

The paper made a surprise endorsement of John Edwards in 2004, and he subsequently placed a solid second in the Democratic caucuses, an outcome that gave him national viability and ultimate appeal as the running mate of the Iowa victor, John Kerry."

So this may prove critical in how Hillary does in the Iowa caucuses. Anyway, I see there is a lot of sour grapes threads going on about this endorsement and unfortunately this was to be expected, but all I can say is this is great news for Hillary and her supporters!

[William769]

1. K&R!

[liberalnurse]

49. I am so enthusiastic to work for the Clinton Campaign

especially now that she has a historical Iowa Endorsement!

[proudmoddemo]

2. Whatever:

They haven't EVER picked a winner of the Democratic caucus. Worked out really well for Teddy Kennedy, Paul Simon, and Bill Bradley.

It doesn't matter. If anything, this is bad for Hillary because it increases expectations. When she finishes third, it'll look really bad. But congratulations none the less, it'll be the only thing that Hillary wins this primary season.

[goldcanyonaz]

6. It's bad for Clinton but would have been a great endorsement for Obama, right?

[msongs]

10. you got it: polls dont favor obama bad, ooops polls favor obama = the word of god nt

[proudmoddemo]

19. No, it still wouldn't have meant anything

How many people have you ever seen carrying a newspaper editorial into the voting booth with them? How many people have ever told you that they're voting a certain way because the newspaper told them to. 15 years as an activist, and here is the number for me: zero.

[goldcanyonaz]

23. Actually, many carry those newspapers into the voting booths with them.

When I was in line to vote during our last election many in line had the newspaper endorsements under their arms.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

30. I see that too and I'm sorry but those people are idiots

It's one thing to take the paper's recommendations under consideration but to use them as an infallible guide for voting is just ridiculous.

[goldcanyonaz]

31. I believe those papers are a safety guard for many who don't vote a straight ticket.

Those ballets can really blow when it comes to explaining what a bill means. My husband screwed up and voted for a constitutional amendment to say that marriage is between a man and a woman, just because of the rhetoric on the ballot. I told him to take the damn newspaper with him.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

37. Nothing wrong with that but voting for all the endorsed candidates and initiatives

Because the paper says so is just dumb. And yet people do it.

[gwells]

53. There are no voting booths in a caucus

There are no voting booths in a caucus.  People who are
undecided on the night of the caucus will be influenced by
what their neighbors have to say in the room that night.

The Register endorsement can play a significant role in
legitimizing a campaign of a candidate who is popular but
considered a long shot (Edwards in 2004, possibly McCain in
2008).  Clinton wins big by denying the endorsement to Obama
and Edwards.  Many Iowans will wonder why the paper supported
Edwards last time, but did not give him the nod this time.

[joeybee12]

29. How many tv ads have you seen highlighting newspaper endorsements...

...lots...if may not mean everything, but it means a lot more than you are saying.

[1corona4u]

12. And John Edwards...let's not forget him...

[Yuugal]

47. Not sure whether the endorsement would have helped Edwards...

If you are running on a platform of "I'm going to kick corporate teeth in!", maybe you don't really want a corporate endorsement from the local rag. They were nice enough to mention that hes not a corporate boot-licker, so I'm happy.

Welcome to DU btw. How you can have 2800+ posts in a month is beyond me. Sheesh , its been 3.5 yrs and I'm finally over 400. Go figure. :)

[1corona4u]

50. LOL...

I have a lot of battles to fight here. In defense of my candidate.

[MonkeyFunk]

22. Ever?

They endorsed Mondale, who went on to get the nomination.

[proudmoddemo]

38. And lost 49 states n/t

[MonkeyFunk]

39. That wasn't the question

the statement was that the DMR had NEVER endorsed a candidate who won the nomination.

Try to keep up.

[proudmoddemo]

40. Never won the presidency

And after the shit her campaign pulled in the primary, there's no way Hillary wins the presidency. "Clinton '08: Cutting off your nose to spite your face."

[IndyOp]

3. Either won or finished a strong second. How many won? (n/t)

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Possibly, but I don't think Clinton can survive a "strong second".

Anything but a win would be perceived as a major loss in the MSM and with Obama hot on her ass in New Hampshire, if he were to win Iowa, it could be too much to overcome. Now the question that needs to be answered: Will this endorsement be enough to turn things around in Iowa? If she wins Iowa, I think she'll walk to the nomination. Anything less, though, and she will be in trouble.

[IndyOp]

7. I think Hillary could survive a strong second -- to Edwards, especially...

I think Hillary could survive a strong second -- to Edwards, especially...

If she finished a strong second to Obama that would upset her applecart because people who are pro-Edwards in other states would likely shift to Obama and she would really be in distress in those states.

Full disclosure: I am rooting for Edwards.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. It'd be tough to overcome, in my opinion.

If Edwards wins Iowa, especially after most polls have him around 3rd, it would be a huge win. I think it would be much like Kerry's victory there in '04. That could give him enough momentum to steal New Hampshire, especially if Obama comes in third behind Hillary and Edwards. Now if it goes Edwards, Obama, Clinton, then things get really interesting, because I could see Obama winning NH. I just feel, though, that if Edwards comes in 1st with Clinton a strong 2nd, most of Obama's support in New Hampshire will erode and those supporters will most likely gravitate toward the Edwards camp, pushing him up in the polls. Would it be enough to win New Hampshire? Maybe not, but it could be enough to give him a moral victory, which would set up for a win or go home Super Tuesday.

[jenmito]

18. . I doubt Obama's support would go to Edwards in NH since Edwards doesn't have the money to compete

nationally.

[Drunken Irishman]

33. It's hard to say.

I think of Obama finishes 3rd, he will lose support. It happened to Dean in '04 and it will happen to any candidate that struggles in Iowa. That support will either go to Clinton or Edwards, since they're both the most realistic options to finish above Obama if he doesn't win Iowa. From what I can gather, I don't see Obama's supporters going to Clinton, so that leaves Edwards as the de facto option -- especially if he gains momentum with an Iowa victory.

[IndyOp]

20. You could be right. I am not confident in any specific predictions right now -

We have 2+ long weeks between now and Jan 3.

:hi:

[Drunken Irishman]

36. This is true and anything can change.

2+ weeks might as well be a year in politics. For all we know, next week we could be discussing how Biden is on his way to an Iowa victory (ok, not likely, but ya' never know).

[cali]

32. nah, she's never depended on Iowa. She can survive a second

with no problem. she can even survive a third. What she can't survive is a loss in all four of the early primaries. She's never been the expected winner in Iowa. NH, SC and NV or another story.

[Drunken Irishman]

35. She's never been the expected winner in Iowa? Huh?

I've been told over the past year that she's the front runner not only nationally, but in Iowa, as well. That's why the fact she's now second in many Iowa polls is such big news, because many in the media had her winning Iowa.

[cali]

45. You couldn't have been. She was undecided as to whether

to even campaign in Iowa due to JE. She only got into Iowa because of Obama.

[paulk]

51. Cali is right, she was never the favorite to win Iowa

There was some speculation early on that she wasn't even going to compete in the Iowa caucuses.

She doesn't have the organization on the ground that Obama has and Edwards (who's been campaigning there since 2003) has. Organization is what wins caucuses, and any objective political analysis for Iowa takes that into account.

It was something of a surprise when she started polling first there, but that was fairly recent. She could finish 2nd or even third and still be viable. Same for Obama. Edwards, on the other hand, would be hurt by anything less than a 1st place finish, IMO.

[loveangelc]

5. .

"The Des Moines Register has a 20 year history of issuing endorsements for presidential candidates in the Iowa caucuses. And while the effect of those endorsements is hard to gauge, it is nonetheless true that in all but one instance, the candidates who have received them went on to either win the caucuses or finish a strong second.
lol who in the last 20 years has actually won the caucus?

[jenmito]

16. delete-wrong placlle

[calteacherguy]

8. Pivotal???

What evidence is there of that?

[ClarkUSA]

9. The last candidate who won after a DMR endorsement was Mondale in 1984.

A Clinton second will hurt Edwards more than Obama. Anyway, we'll see what happens. What struck me was how little the DMR endorsement
differed from the argument Hillary and her surrogates have been making since last year. So the readers of the paper didn't hear anything new
so I doubt thousands of them will start storming the caucuses or change their minds now. It will be interesting to see whether the endorsement
can leapfrog Hillary in polling since the latest Iowa poll has Obama eight points ahead.

[babylonsister]

11. Really? So much for 'pivotal'! LOL! nt

[ClarkUSA]

14. Yup, although for some, it depends on what the meaning of "pivotal" is...

;-)

[quinnox]

13. I'm not expecting Hillary to win Iowa

but if she gets second it would be a good result for her.

[ClarkUSA]

17. We'll see...

Iowa caucuses are the hardest to predict, although polls taken closest to the caucus date have tended to be the most accurate in predicting
trendlines that point to the winner.

[jenmito]

21. Not if it's Obama who beats her. And then Edwards' supporters will go to Obama. n/t

[Radical Activist]

24. This might give Clinton a shot at finishing second in Iowa.

But I still think she's likely to finish third.

[gateley]

25. I think an endorsement of Hillary won't have as much impact as it might had it

gone to one of the other candidates. It seems the majority of people have made up their minds about her -- pro or con -- and won't be swayed. If one of the others was the recipient, those on the fence might pay more attention to that person. At this point I think Hillary's support or lack of support, is pretty much a done deal. Of course it's extremely possible I'm basing that opinion on what I see on DU...

[bluestateguy]

26. Congratulations!

Congratulations Hillary, on winning the approval of a bunch of stuffed shirted newspaper editorial boardsmen! How many delegates does she win from that primary!

[goldcanyonaz]

28. And here I was going to say how statesman like of you.

Then I read on.

Too bad.

[Franc_Lee]

27. Interesting, however when it comes to Barack Obama? ... All bets are off, the man is an exception...

[Caseman]

34. Don't like Hilary...

...no endorsement will ever change that.

[mtnsnake]

41. Are you misspelling her name because you don't like her or is there another reason?

[Caseman]

42. Yes, I took the missing l to do this...

Hilary

[mtnsnake]

43. Hey that's good!

I gotta admit that's pretty clever. :thumbsup:

[Beacool]

44. So many sore losers.

I respect the Des Moines Register's endorsement more than I do Oprah and her circus. These people spent weeks meeting with the candidates and pondering their position on the issues before making a decision. I still don't think that Hillary will win IA, and neither did her campaign from the very beginning. I would be more than happy if she came in second.

[Nedsdag]

46. Spin, spin, spin.

Why is she sending more of her people to Iowa?

Why did she drag her elderly mother and reclusive daughter out on the campaign?

Why is Bill schmoozing the DMR editors for their endorsements.

It's because SHE WANTS TO WIN IOWA. That's why!

I never bought that crap about "they never thought they were going to win Iowa." Remember, she said she's "in it to win."

Now she's going to spin a loss in Iowa. Nice try, Hillary. It's not going to work.

[oasis]

52. Excellent post.(eom)

[DivorcingNeo]

54. Oprah and her circus?

*shakes head and sighs* I'm sure if Oprah was endorsing any other candidate but Senator Obama, then it wouldn't be labeled as such. Oh well...I could be all wrong. *smirks

[youthere]

48. Congratulations to Hillary!

the DMR endorsement is a big one, no matter how folks try to say it doesn't matter. Good for her. Congratulations to Senator Clinton and her supporters.