Appealing to all the candidates, again: please stay through Feb. 5th

[question everything]

There will be a "huge" crowd in the Iowa Democratic caucus: all of 124,000.

Should this number of voters determine the final nominee?

It is inconceivable that California, New York and Illinois will not have a say in the process.

We are talking only 33 more days.

No, you don't have money to campaign in all the "Super Duper Tuesday" states. But you can travel (coach) to Los Angeles, Chicago and New York and arrange for an appearance on a local TV or radio show.

People there have not seen any candidates there, except for the mega fund events of Clinton and Obama that they would love to have you for, say, 15 min talks. Perhaps even to answer questions from listeners.

What have you got to lose?

And for DUers, please urge your candidates to stay through Feb. 5th. One never knows. It is really sad to hear Biden, for example, admitting that if he does not finish in Iowa at a certain place - don't remember which - this will be the end of his campaign. It is also sad to hear speculations that if Edwards does not finish Iowa at the top, that for him, too, this may be the end. Whatever the Iowa (and New Hampshire) results are, "Super Duper Tuesday" may turn everything upside down.

What do you say?

[durrrty libby]

1. 124,000? ....Yep Caucus = Caca . Absurd ancient ritual

[Eurobabe]

I think I heard Biden say on Snuffalufogus show that he will

drop out if he doesn't make top three in Iowa. I was quite surprised to hear him say this. Perhaps a money thing?

[1corona4u]

3. I think Biden will stay in if he's even close to 3rd...

if he's within a few hundred votes of 3rd, he'll stay.

[Eurobabe]

8. Let's hope so, or I have a decision to make by 2/5!!

Our Primary Abroad is week of 2/5-12.

[K Gardner]

2. Excellent post, K&R and bookmarked ! n/t

[Radical Activist]

4. Its a good system.

Yes, its a small number of people. Small enough that many of them can meet the candidates in person, hear them speak, have a personal conversation. I wish you could do that on a national level but it isn't possible. A national election means an election controlled by the media filter.

Iowa makes and breaks campaigns. The caucus takes 2nd tier candidates and makes them front runners. It happens because people make their own judgments without the media and big corporate donors telling them what to do. Its impossible to do that nationwide but we can ask small states like Iowa and New Hampshire to do it for us.

I think Iowans were right when they decided they didn't like Dean. I think they'll be right to reject Clinton. No, I don't want a national primary based on name recognition, media coverage, and whoever raises the most money.

[question everything]

5. In 1988, when, again, the field was open after Reagan

finished his second term, Gephardt and Dole won the Iowa caucuses. Neither ended up the nominee.

Yes, Iowa is a place for personal contacts but it should not be the final word. Iowa and New Hampshire do not represent the country at large and the candidates should wait for the bigger states to weigh in. It is too bad that they do not campaign in other states. Even in the general election, they campaigned only in "battle ground" states. Thus, "true blue" (and red) were completely ignored by both candidates.

This is no way to elect a President.

[Radical Activist]

7. I'm sure they wont all drop out by Feb. 5.

Yes, some will drop out as they always do. If anything, Iowa and New Hampshire give an advantage to candidates with less money and media coverage. If a candidate can't gain significant support in either state then there's probably a good reason for it.

Would you really expect anyone who places second or third in Iowa to drop out before Feb 5? That seems unlikely.

[robcon]

11. It's a bad system.

Radical Activist wrote: "Iowa makes and breaks campaigns."

No, it doesn't. It makes money for Iowa TV/radio stations and newspapers. Iowa believes it has a RIGHT to the earliest polling event. But Iowa hasn't decided the candidate in a long time.

[question everything]

12. As we have seen with the shameful banning of Kucinich

from the recent "debate" because he did not spend enough money there. Not that he is my choice but this, really, amounted to extortion. Especially when Alan Keyes, out of nowhere, was allowed, even though it was not clear where his "office" was in Iowa.

[MonkeyFunk]

16. Iowa hasn't decided in a long time?

Who won in 2004?

[robcon]

19. Did ANYONE think Kerry had the nomination in 2004 after Iowa?

I didn't think so.

[Tejanocrat]

6. If a candidate comes in 5th or worse in Iowa and again in New Hampshire, he may wield more influence

by endorsing rather than pursuing a clearly fruitless race.

Under such circumstances, why would you want him stay in the race?

[Perky]

9. If everyone stays it it virtually guarantees that we will have a brokered convention,

because there are not enough delegates is the remaining cprimaries to wrap it up.


The mix of geographies and demographice on 2.5 pretty much guaantte 25% of the Delegates witl go for someone othere than Obama or Clinton. ANd unless some one wins SC handidly....2.5 is going to be a push with no decisive win.

[question everything]

14. Not enough delegates from the Feb. 5th primaries?

I am sure that on Feb. 6th we will have a clear winner, I just want the many voters in our largest states to have a say.

The alternative, really, is a rotating primary schedule, and I hope that after this year enough "leaders" - or whoever determines this - will be mad enough to demand a change.

Especially if - bite my tongue - we lose again for choosing the wrong candidate.

[Perky]

15. If Obama Edwards and Clinton divvy up the delegates available on 2/5

there would not be enough delegates left after 2/5 for anyone to win out right.

It makes it even harder if the other candidates siphon off 20% of the votes on 2/5.

THis is more likely since Obama is leading in Iowa and CLinton is leading in New Hampshire. SC is pivotal though probably not decisive unless someone just runse the table and get 50% in SC.

I am not saying that a brokered convention is necessarily a bad thing.... WHat I dred however.. Is that if this "no one gets a majority" actually occurs, the bloodletting will continue all the way to the end of August COnvention and trying to pull the party back together after the tumult with just two months to the General election is going to be tough.


THe GOP is in a similar predicament.

[robcon]

10. I expect several dropouts after New Hampshire...

Biden, Dodd, maybe Richardson. I think Edwards will hang on until Feb 5.

[Debi]

13. I hope they stay in too!

I think that every state should have the option to choose out of all the candidates.

This is exactly why we need federal financing of campaigns, so that the race isn't about who has the most or can spend the most money.

[question everything]

17. self kick (nt)

[question everything]

18. Another kick (nt)