New Rasmuseen has Hillary up 3 in Iowa and NH

[BL611]

Sorry bad links. here is the new NH, Iowa will be posted shortly

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary

[Renew Deal]

1. That's new relative to the beginning of time.

It's only a week old.

[BL611]

4. Sorry

NH is new, Iowa coming out shortly... it will be a Hillary lead within the margin of era.

[William769]

12. I saw todays date.

:shrug:

[MadBadger]

13. It was edited and originally contained polls from Dec 12

[William769]

14. So then it's good right?

[BL611]

Yes.

The current links are correct.

[MadBadger]

15. Now it is.

[Renew Deal]

16. Yes

It said Dec. 12 when it was first posted

[William769]

17. Thanks I was just a bit confused for a moment.

[BL611]

2. I think what we are seeing

is both states are too close to call, an occasional aberration will give one candidate a big lead in one state or the other, but the main thing to extrapolate from the polling is this race is could go eithier way.

[MadBadger]

3. You should change your title, because a poll that is 1 week old isnt new.

[MadBadger]

5. Both your links are to Iowa.

[BL611]

6. has been corrected

...

[BL611]

7. here is the new Iowa

clinton up 4

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus

[MadBadger]

8. Second choice numbers: Edwards 28%, Obama 22%, Clinton/Richardson 15%

Those numbers dont fare well for Clinton.

[BL611]

10. Its difficult to say

because it does not specify second choice from who. If your an Obama supporter whose second choice is Clinton,or vice versa second choice makes no difference. It also depend who is at risk to not reach 15% in your specific district, so second choice is very imprecise.

[MNDemNY]

18. Nor BHO.

[MadBadger]

19. Actually, it shouldnt be an issue for Barack Obama

Edwards has a 6 point lead over Obama in second choice support, but Obama leads him in first choice support by 10 points. Obama would then have a good chance to land himself in first still.

[MNDemNY]

20. Edwards numbers are viable. Edwards Will win the caucus.

[MadBadger]

21. I agree that his numbers are viable

I think its a tossup for 1/2 between Obama and Edwards.

[MNDemNY]

22. Edwards support is heavy in the rural areas.

Remember, the rural precincts are weighed heavier, in that 10 supporters in rural areas =100+ supporters in the urban areas. NONE of the state polling takes this into account. So if the poll numbers remain this close, it gives JRE a distinct advantage.

[avrdream]

9. From the link:

"As a practical matter, it is impossible to project a winner based for either party in Iowa based upon available polling data. All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. This year’s Iowa caucus presents even more difficulties because of the January 3 date. It will be difficult to obtain reliable polling during the upcoming holiday period. Historically, large numbers of Iowa caucus participants make up their minds in the final two weeks of the campaign."

[durrrty libby]

11. She continues to go back up. That's good. Personally, I will

be happy when I don't have to hear the idiot word "caucus" anymore.:hurts:

[superkia]

23. Have you ever noticed that the polls follow what the media shows?

Its almost like, they saw that Obama was getting too high in the polls, so they have dropped his coverage way down, turned Clintons coverage from the negative to now positive happy interviews and such and they have pumped up the Edwards coverage. So when Clinton falls down to Obama, they increase Edwards coverage to take away some of the Obama supporters and at the same time they put Clinton in a better light, all as we get even closer to Iowa. They have also changed it from " whoever wins Iowa is almost a shoe in" to " well if Obama or Edwards lose Iowa, its pretty much over but if Clinton loses Iowa, she is still in it. I thought Iowa was the almighty, what happened?

The republican side has been handled the same way, first it was Giuliani that was way ahead like Clinton in the beginning, Romney then started to get a little closer and they now cant stop talking about Huckabee. All they want to do is keep these nonsense polls close so when the election is stolen, Americans will just be pissed and say "well it was close" like they have done in the recent past.

I don't think theres too much to worry about, I'm sure they will put Clinton in the white house because too many people hate Giuliani. If something happened and Clinton didn't get the nomination, they will put Giuliani in or elect Martial Law.

Do you think that Americans really believe in these polls and actually use them to make their decision on who they elect to control their children's future? I know that the media has brainwashed some to believe in the whole "are they electable" and "throwing your vote away" nonsense but do people really think that the poll tells them who is electable and that humans no longer think for themselves and actually research a little? Has the country as a whole gave up on doing things for themselves and now they rely on a boob tube?