Clinton Widens Iowa Lead in New American Research Group Poll

[Alamom]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aIKuKkfDE8nY&refer=us


Clinton Widens Iowa Lead in New American Research Group Poll

By Holly Rosenkrantz


Dec. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Senator Hillary Clinton of New York widened her lead over Democratic rivals in a poll of people who plan to participate in the Iowa caucus.

Clinton was supported by 34 percent of the people surveyed by the American Research Group, followed by John Edwards with 20 percent and Barack Obama with 19 percent. The poll was taken Dec. 20-23.

In a poll taken Dec. 16-19 by the same group, Clinton led with 29 percent to 25 percent for Obama and 18 percent for Edwards.

Clinton led Senator Obama of Illinois among women, 38 percent to 21 percent, unchanged from a week ago, according to the American Research Group. Obama lost ground among men, the survey showed, trailing with 16 percent to 28 percent for Clinton and 27 percent for Edwards, the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2004. A week ago, Obama was at 27 percent among men.

Among Republicans, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's lead narrowed slightly. In the latest poll, he was supported by 23 percent of those questioned to 21 percent for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, 17 percent for Senator John McCain of Arizona and 14 percent for former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. The earlier survey showed Huckabee with 28 percent support, followed by McCain at 20 percent and Romney at 17 percent.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points, was conducted by telephone among a random sample of 600 likely Iowa caucus-goers.

[Perry Logan]

1. Durn. This means the Obama people are going to have to start hitting below the belt again.

[chascarrillo]

2. It's the fun part of the campaign

... dontcha know.

[Alamom]

3. Looks like to me, she takes it without flinching or losing ground. nm

[Perry Logan]

4. The smears are helping her. People are sick of smears against Hillary.

Obamites take note.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

5. I certainly hope this isn't true. She will lose to a Republican and then I'll leave this country.

We Democrats have the hardest heads. How many times do we have to make the mistake of pushing into the forefront someone who will lose? The stupidity is wearing me down already.

[durrrty libby]

7. "I'll leave this country. " And yet you stayed here for 8 years of bush

Talk about stupidity


Edit to add She most certainly can win

[Sarah Ibarruri]

35. Fighting for impeachment, which the political Dems obviously never wanted to stick their neck out ..

for. :(

[BigDDem]

23. Which country will you be going to?

[Sarah Ibarruri]

34. Spain. nt

[zulchzulu]

37. I'm thinkin' Amsterdam...

Finally it would be a perfect time to live there for a while...

[saltpoint]

6. Well, we'll see how it shakes out next week. Things could go her way, or not.

If they don't, it's going to be a significant headline.

I'm rooting for all the candidates to remain in the race for as long as possible to allow as many Democrats as we can to vote their first choices.

If Sen. Clinton's campaign has another week like the last two, it may hurt her chances in Iowa. They might want to keep Billy Shaheen locked up in the cellar for at least the next month or so.

[earthlover]

8. How many times will this be a "new" poll? Just askin....

New outliar more like....

[Selatius]

9. Rasmussen polling does not exactly support ARG poll.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus finds that Hillary Clinton is supported by 31% of Likely Caucus Participants. Barack Obama earns the vote from 27% and John Edwards is the top choice for 22%.

However, among those who are “certain” they will participate in the caucus, it gets a bit closer—Clinton 29% Obama 28% and Edwards 22%.

Among those who have participated in the caucus before it’s Obama 26% Clinton 25% and Edwards 24%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/democratic_iowa_caucus

In short, take the ARG poll with a grain of salt. Even Rasmussen says it is too close to call.

[wyldwolf]

10. ARG polling does not exactly support Rasmussen. Is Rasmussen the standard?

[Selatius]

11. As I said, the ARG polling should be taken with a grain of salt. Why?

Because the trends are too difficult to discern at this point. Contradictory polls tend to bear this out, and Rasmussen is but one example.

[wyldwolf]

13. but you're using Rasmussen as the standard for all other polls. Why?

[Selatius]

15. Not a standard, as an example.

For example, ABC News polling:

Currently, among likely Democratic caucus-goers in this ABC News/Washington Post poll, 33 percent support Obama, 29 percent Clinton and 20 percent Edwards, with single-digit support for the other Democratic candidates.

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/story?id=4021096&page=1

To repeat what I had said earlier: "Rassmusen is but one example."

[William769]

12. K&R!

[ClarkUSA]

14. Wow, this poll was taken 3-5 DAYS ago and you're still digging it up? lol!

You do know what "outlier" means, right? We all do. :eyes:

[Alamom]

16. Of course, could you direct me to the latest ARG poll? nm

[MadBadger]

17. This poll has been posted many times as many as two day ago

And many people in the media are uneasy about this poll because of the polling time (right before Christmas).

[Alamom]

19. I looked, I didn't find it, I said as much and ask for a later one....

****(crickets)**** and now I'm told it's just not a good one by Obama supporters.


Thanks for your input.

& on to more news, Lynn Woolsey endorsed Hillary.






Many news outlets have it posted today as the latest poll out by ARG.
I didn't change the dates or leave them out. I posted exactly as written, title & content.

[ClarkUSA]

24. I could direct you to the last dozen Hillaryworlder threads touting this outlier poll...

But do keep posting about this outlier poll... it makes all of us non-Clinton Kool-Aide drinkers chuckle.

I feel an urge to post the latest Zogby poll which has Obama beating Hillary in electability.... and the latest ABC/Washington Post poll that
had Obama beating Hillary by 4 points. Or the latest Strategic Vision poll that has Obama winning by 3 points. :-)

But I won't... because I know when a poll has outlived its usefulness.

[Pirate Smile]

18. Pollster.com did an analysis of this exact poll.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_on_the_dark_side_of_th.php

[ChairmanAgnostic]

20. and found it incredible and lacking in reliability.

[flyarm]

21. Yawn..how many times is this a new poll? eom

[SoxFan]

22. Crooked Republican pollster? Nice.

Dick Bennett is a sleazy second tier pollster with a pay-for-play reputation.

Consider this. He's based in Manchester, NH. But the only candidates who have hired him (former US Rep. Charlie Bass, Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, and former US Senator John Durkin) also hired other firms to conduct their "real" polling. Campaigns occasionally throw money at Bennett because they know that he will leak puffed up numbers to the Union Leade and Telegraph.

It's also telling that the major media putlets in NH never utilize ARG. WMUR-TV is located about a quarter mile from ARG's two room headquarters, but they generally hire UNH to conduct their polls. The Concord Monitor and Boston Globe also use other Mass/NH firms, but don't want their name associated with the con man Bennett.

[BigDDem]

25. Obama slipping...

must be a crooked pollster.

[SoxFan]

26. No, I've said this about ARG for years

I've worked in the trenches in NH politics for twenty years. I've run for office myself and run campaigns for others. I know all about Dick Bennett's act. I know the campaign operatives who paid him off the books to get a nice story in the local papers. I know about his two room office with a grand total of two phone lines. I know that nobody ever seems to receive an actual call from ARG. I know about Bennett's releasing cooked polling data while failing to reveal that he had been paid by a particular cmpaign to come up with a pre-ordained result.

ARG is a joke, and the national media are fools for giving him any credibility.

[BigDDem]

27. Alrighty, gotcha.

Which poll(s) are reliable? Just wondering.

It seems when BO is down, they are all run by republicans or
they were wrong back in 1996 or "no one's voted yet" or
"they never call me."

[SoxFan]

28. My take on the local pollsters

Suffolk University isn't bad, but they have a short NH track record.

Kelly Myers is usually very good, though I am not sure who he is working with this cycle. His numbers in the 2000 Gore/bradley and McCain/Bush primaries were scary-good. He picked up Bradley's late surge, but said that he needed another 48 hours to pull even. he also said that the GOP race was going to be a blowout when everyone else said that it was a toss-up.

Franklin Piece College was pretty good, but the polling director left to take a job with one of the GOP campaigns, so the whole operation seems to be in suspended animation.

Becker Institute is a secretive mess.

UNH is sporadically good, but local politics clouds their work on occassion. In 2006, UNH didn't include Carol Shea-Porter in its pre-primary poll, saying she lacked the financial strength to be deemed a 'serious candidate". Despite being outspent 10-1 by a DCCC annointee, Shea-Porter won the primary in a landslide and went on to win the seat in November. UNH failed to pick up on her strength because the pollster was told by Bill Shaheen that Shea-Porter wasn't legit.

Research 2000 is a bit odd. Their numbers weren't bad in 2004, but their autodialer methodology rubbed some old school pols and pollsters the wrong way.

[BigDDem]

29. Any in Iowa you think are reliable?

[SoxFan]

31. Iowa is a different ballgame

Caucus vs primary.

Because I've worked in NH politics and had many opportunities to pore over raw data and cross-tabs, I've developed some opinions over the methodological quirks with each pollster. For example, the UNH survey tends to oversample Manchester and Portsmouth but misses a lot of voters in suburban border towns.

I'm chiming in on ARG because they are literally down the street from me. I know that they play some ethically shady games here at home, so I have to presume that they do the same thing in Iowa. I also leave open the possibility that ARG doesn't actually poll anyone at all.

[BigDDem]

33. Thanks for your thoughtful responses...

appreciated!

[Adelante]

30. Do me a favor, Alamom

The next time you post this poll, please put "Week-old poll" in the subject line so I don't keep wasting time clicking on the thread. It's been a dozen times this week, so it seems, I expect I will be seeing a "new" poll and get this same old one. Have mercy.

[dtotire]

32. If She Is Nominated

We would lose the election. Especially if McCain is the Republican candidate.

[CyberPieHole]

36. Good on that. K&R for Clinton! n/t