NEWEST IOWA POLL: Clinton Holds Four Point Lead Over Obama

[wyldwolf]

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday (Jan 1) taken Friday through Monday.

Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike Huckabee hold narrow leads on their top rivals two days before the state opens the presidential nominating race...

Clinton, a New York senator, maintained a stable four-point edge over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 30 percent to 26 percent, in the Democratic race. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was in third at 25 percent, down one point overnight.

The poll of 925 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 928 likely Republican caucus-goers... has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for each party.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2948587520080101

[cali]

1. I don't know why, but I still think all these polls are meaningless.

There are so many variables that could impact a race this close. I've been predicting Edwards would win this for a couple of months, but who knows?

[rodeodance]

2. edwards seems to be gaining, now last 2 polls have him stale and in 3rd again. crapola.

[BootinUp]

3. That could be if the poll takers are playing

us on purpose.

[rodeodance]

5. or the Pollees' are playing with us???--or both

[bunkerbuster1]

12. Of course these polls don't mean much.

A caucus poll isn't the same as a typical primary-voter poll, obviously.

BTW, I don't know if Edwards will win, but at this point I'm hoping he will, just to upset stupid people like Joe Klein and the rest of the DC Villagers.

[MannyGoldstein]

13. I Know Why - Because They *Are* (Reasonably) Meaningless

We're talking unreliable polls for primaries that are not-very-good predictors of who gets the nomination.

[Selatius]

22. When the polls contradict, that means the race is simply too close to call.

That's my take on it.

[Jai4WKC08]

38. They all have to guess about what constitutes a likely voter

Much as I like to see polls that show my preferred candidate ahead, I have no confidence in the estimates of voter turn-out.

[MaineDem]

4. Are Iowans getting poll fatique?

I think with all these pollsters out there asking me the same question over and over I'd start making up answers.

I don't put stock in any of the polls at this point. Let's just see who's better at getting their people out to caucus.

[I was just saying...]

7. Maybe Iowans should vote NOT to be the first...

but since that's all the attention Iowa gets every four years. Seriously, the democratic
should ask all Americans why Iowa should garner this much attention in a presidential election.
To me, there's simple no there there. Why do we expect something 'special' from a state
has yet to vote for a woman to higher office other than school board.

Maybe Iowans should ask this question: What's wrong with us? Why are we so far behind the
rest of the United States when it comes to women in politics?

[MaineDem]

8. That's not the point

And it's not Iowans shot to call.

I think you left a word out of your post. The "democratic..."?

[Debi]

9. School Board?

Try Lt. Governor - or Attorney General - Leader of the State Senate. We should not vote for a woman just because she is a woman. We should vote for a woman because she is qualified and experienced and capable of serving.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. You Folks Need To Be Careful Not To Get Burned Interpeting These Polls

CNN, Insider Advanatage, and Zogby which show Hillary winning are using traditional models...The DMR poll is using a "non-traditional" model ... DMR's model is predicated on a massive, massive number of new and independent voters voting in the Iowa caucus...

We will learn shortly which model is right...

[wyldwolf]

18. how is posting a new poll finding risking getting burned?

:shrug:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. I Just Think Calling This Race For Obama , Clinton, Or Edwards Is Dicey

~

[wyldwolf]

23. I haven't seen anyone call this race.

[book_worm]

10. "Edwards is holding strong among second choice which could help him..."

says John Zogby in the article. Among second choice Edwards leads with 30%, Obama with 22% and Clinton with 15%. This could be significant on caucus night. This thing is still wide open. Zogby also says that he is detecting that Edwards is cutting into Obama's lead among independents.

[MannyGoldstein]

11. Clinton's Lead Is Unprecedented And Unstoppable!

:rofl:

How's that unshrinkable-lead thing working out these days?

[Alamom]

14. k&r

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The Intrade Numbers Are Moving Toward Obama

That suggests people who talk with their money are putting a lot of stock in the DMR poll despite the fact that Hillary still lead in the RCP average...

I am afraid the "intraders" may be right:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

[Lerkfish]

16. so now you like polls, huh?

I think the whole poll rah rah and poll pooh pooh activity is so meaningless and so transparent its pathetic

[wyldwolf]

19. when have I not like polls?

:shrug:

[robcon]

17. Too close to call. Polls are meaningless.

n/t

[DemKR]

24. race is too close to call n/t

[indimuse]

20. getting dizzy now...

:crazy:

[Tellurian]

25. looks like intraders..

are shifting their support from Edwards to Obama. The last gasp to beat Clinton.

She's gonna win handily! I can feel it in my bones.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Why Would People Willingly Blow Their Money?

They are betting on Obama to win IA because they believe, rightly or wrongly, that the DMR poll has captured the reality that escaped other pollsters...

[Tellurian]

29. My thinking is... it's a ruse..

an attempt to make Obama look stronger than he is..driving the trend away from Clinton.

I don't think it will work. Clinton is too strong on "facts". It's pretty obvious she's dwarfing her opponent's mental acuity. Voters want someone who can deliver. I believe, she has accomplished convincing them!

Listening to Hillary now in Ames IA LIVE on CNN.. The crowd is LOVING HER!

[jenmito]

30. Riiiight...it's a RUSE...

that along with your last post that said Edwards supporters were moving towards Obama to TRY to beat Hillary shows you don't get it. If, as the trading suggests, Edwards supporters ARE moving to Obama, Hillary CAN'T win! And WON'T win! Obama is 44! :hi:

[Tellurian]

33. Oh, I get it now..you're just upset because I said Hillary will win handily!

WAH!

[jenmito]

35. Wow-what a short memory:

Post #25: "looks like intraders..
are shifting their support from Edwards to Obama. The last gasp to beat Clinton."

[Joe the Revelator]

31. That is crazy...

I mean,that entire post is completely, delusional crazy.

[jenmito]

32. What do you expect? That's from maybe the most ardent Hillary supporter here!

S/he's clearly spinning like crazy trying to justify the fact that Obama is surging and leading!

[Major Hogwash]

40. Which begs the question - how much koolaid can 1 guy drink?

It's not being "ardent" when he starts arguing that Hillary is a delicate flower simply because she is female.

That's just not the perception I have of Hillary "I vote for ALL wars" Clinton.

There was no justification whatsoever for her voting for the Kyl/Lieberman resolution.

[jenmito]

41. Good question...

Maybe it's being delusional? I see s/he hasn't come back to respond to the proof s/he asked for. :shrug:

[William769]

26. K&R!

[suston96]

28. If I am not mistaken, in 2004....

...the final DMR was not very close and neither were the others - but they ALL showed Obama leading a day or two before the caucuses.

Here, today, the Des Moines Register is the only one showing Obama with a lead, much less such a large one.

[TeamJordan23]

34. The DMR was the only poll that called it right for First, Second, Third. nm

[suston96]

36. Corrected post - the one above 28, has an error.

If I am not mistaken, in 2004....

...the final DMR was not very close (there are two DMR polls) and neither were the others - but they ALL showed Kerry leading a day or two before the caucuses.

Here, today, the Des Moines Register is the only one showing Obama with a large lead.

[JackORoses]

39. a little Freudian slip, I do believe

;)

[CyberPieHole]

37. K&R for Hillary Clinton n/t