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The poll statistic that should make Edwards' supporters very optimistic

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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 06:15 PM
Original message
The poll statistic that should make Edwards' supporters very optimistic
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 06:15 PM by antiimperialist
Ezra Klein has spotted an important finding:
Important finding: Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.
"Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be: Edwards 41%, Clinton 34% and Obama 25%."


http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=01&year=2008&base_name=polling_madness#103424
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Tejanocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 07:27 PM
Response to Original message
1. K & R
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tinrobot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Cool
If Edwards gets 41%, the whole game changes.
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DemKR Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
3. K&R n/t
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:29 PM
Response to Original message
4. That is huge in a caucus
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. And almost meaningless in NH but by then...
It may be Edward's race.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:42 PM
Response to Original message
6. Edwards-28%, Obama-25%, Clinton-14%.
Edwards was the most popular second choice with 28 percent, while Obama had 25 percent and Clinton garnered 14 percent.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/31/obama_to_iowans_pick_me_at_least_as_2nd_choice/
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maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Those numbers make more sense
I'm skeptical about the InsiderAdvantage polls. They're a small Republican outfit without a great reputation.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 08:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. All I've seen show the vote split between Edwards and Obama (Edwards up a few)
but the real story is Hillary polling between 12-14% on the second vote. Zogby was on Washington Journal 12/30/07 (first guest) talking about her ceiling of support.
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Yael Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:09 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. "Ceiling of support"
Interesting concept
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. the other good news.
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druidity33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:10 PM
Response to Original message
10. that makes sense...
Maybe Kooch has seen these numbers and is trying to even the field?

Otherwise, i don't understand him picking Obama to parlay for...
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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:28 AM
Response to Original message
12. kick
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balantz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 11:37 AM
Response to Original message
13. K&R
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chimpymustgo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 03:59 PM
Response to Original message
14. Counting on this! Could make all the difference. Go Edwards!
His time is now.
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K8-EEE Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
15. FAB!!!
Hey great news....love it!
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Flabbergasted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-02-08 05:45 PM
Response to Original message
16. kick for ed
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