Opinion: Obama just won the nomination. Here's why:

[kevsand]

I'm guessing there are lots of "Reagan Democrats" in both Nevada and South Carolina. Obama just signaled that it's time for the last of them to finally come back home. I think a bunch of them will.

Combine that with an energized youth vote, Obama's ability to draw in other first time voters, and the successful use of the at-large precinct caucuses, and you have a recipe for record Democratic turnout in Nevada.

Now liberally sprinkle in resentment against Hillary's heavy handed efforts to suppress the participation of working people, and suddenly Obama has much better than expected performance among labor and Hispanics. Bake at high heat for two days, and serve up a 5 to 6 point margin of victory in Nevada.

Take the bump that follows, and add to that the growing sense of hope, excitement, and confidence among non-white voters. Simmer for a week, and Obama reforges a coalition that has eluded dems for decades: minorities join with Reagan Democrats to give Obama a 12 to 15 point win in South Carolina.

At that point, there is no stopping the momentum going into Feb. 5. California, New York, and Illinois all go for Obama, as well as several smaller states. We have a nominee.

Disclaimer: This is opinion, not fact, and unabashedly speculative. Obviously, I want to know what everyone else thinks, but don't expect me to spend huge amounts of energy defending it. I'm not invested in it at all. It just came to me after dinner, and I thought I should write it down before my nap... :-)

[Sarah Ibarruri]

1. A Reagan "Democrat" is not a Democrat. nt

[Unsane]

Hope you're happy with permanent minority party status, then.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

10. I don't agree. At all. nt

[BringBigDogBack]

56. Surely you jest.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Really? Are they impure - - infidels?

That's some scary shit.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

18. They're Republicans. In fact, they're extremist right wing Republicans......

Reagan was not even a centrist Republican. He was a right wing extremist fascist.

[Hawaii Hiker]

39. Absolutely correct - Reagan was a far right bastard

An outstanding article on Saint Ronnie

http://g21.net/amdream79.html

Oh, & don't forget he nominated Scalia for the Supreme Court & tried to appoint Bork (whose nomination was thankfully defeated)....

[Sarah Ibarruri]

41. Thank you. EXCELLENT article! Reagan was a pig. nt

[Barack_America]

22. I thought they were Americans...with votes that count as much as anyone else's

...with votes that have been electing Republicans that are fucking them over for far too long.

[patrice]

27. Why don't you tell us all how well "trickle down" economics works? nt

[jefferson_dem]

30. Why don't you list for us all the things that Dems have to adhere to in order to actually be Dems?

Thanks.

[patrice]

38. We could start with Repealing the Reagan Tax Cuts an End to Union Busting, but a Beginning for

Trust Busting, Rational Business Regulation starting with Banks and a commitment up front to what the group owes each individual member in exchange for his/her cooperation with the group: an appropriate and complete education; at least basic health care; and a sane national defense.

[Avalux]

14. How old are you?

I'd rethink that comment. There are plenty of older people who were lifelong Dems, got caught up in Reagan then continued to vote Republican for no good reason. They WANT to come home and exclusion isn't what the Democratic Party is all about. At least not MY Democratic Party.

[Pirate Smile]

I believe Jim Webb said he was a Reagan Democrat who has come home.

[Avalux]

34. I'll add my Dad to that list too. I'm proud of him.

He's a wonderful, intelligent man who has realized Bush was not what he seemed - he was a terrible mistake, and the Republican party is dying. We need people like him.

[Big Blue Marble]

60. It is crazy.

But these haters around here do not want your dad back. They would rather
keep losing than redefine themselves and this party.

I am proud of your dad too. It takes courage to realize you have made a terrible mistake
and be willing to rectify it. Thank your dad for me. With citizens like him, we can rebuild this country.

[BringBigDogBack]

62. A good post.

And the attitude any Democrat should be taking. This is the winning attitude :dem:

[jefferson_dem]

35. Excommunicate the fucker!

He ain't pure.

[SoxFan]

64. Damn right

Reagan Democrats elected Jim Webb, Claire McCaskill, Bob Casey, and my state's two Democratic members of Congress.

This idiotic notion that we can win the presidency solely with registered members of DU and Kos is mind boggling to anyone who understands politics.

[JVS]

50. Do you even know the definition of the phrase?

[Sarah Ibarruri]

52. I know that Reagan did horrific damage to this country. Using the name Reagan is suicide.

But then, so is having Republican pals at a time like now when so many are suffering.

[JVS]

55. That's nice, but what does the phrase "reagan democrat" mean?

[FreeState]

2. Doubt it - does not work in the primaries when you have Huckabee and Romney

the independents and switchers will vote McCain in the open primaries out of fear that Romney or Huckabee could win.

[skipos]

3. I think Clinton Inc will win even though they lost their lawsuit. nt

[Barack_America]

4. You're going to get flamed like hell. But, FWIW, I stand with you...n/t

[ecstatic]

5. I dunno.I just assumed Reagan "Anythings" were racist

So will they vote for Obama? Wasn't Reagan's major appeal his "coded" and not so subtle attitude about race?

[thunder rising]

17. And Obama gave them a coded not too deep message to come home and all is forgiven

[BeatleBoot]

32. Wow. This is unreal.

Too funny.

"...its okay Reagan Democrats, time to come back....all is forgiven..."

BWWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!


:rofl: :rofl:
:rofl:

[sunonmars]

6. If anything, he just lost california

New York, are you mental!

[Unsane]

8. How so?

[Barack_America]

13. I wasn't under the impression that he had much of a chance...

In either of those states. I'll take the midwest instead, thank you very much.

[rwheeler31]

7. I hope this isn't the case.

[pocoloco]

9. Goodnight!

Maybe you will be able to have a more realistic dream during your nap.

[thunder rising]

11. Yep, that'sa what I'm thinking. Hill got too agressive and lost a sure thing.

[Barack_America]

19. I don't know whether it was Hillary, her surrogates, or supporters...

...but the result is that her campaign is like a slobbering, rabid dog ready to snap at anything.

It's not pretty.

[Tulkas]

15. it plays well in california

at least that what is what pundits are saying. He should have helped himself in some states as well as in the general. It won't help in closed primary states.

[Barack_America]

53. It may play well in closed primary states too.

I consider myself an Independent even though I vote dem, donate to dems, etc. I'm registered as a Democrat specifically so I can vote in primaries. But, if an exit poller asked me what I was, I'd probably say Independent.

It's silly, I know, but it's not all that uncommon. I'll bet there are a lot of self-identified "independents" that will be voting in Dem primaries.

[Bread and Circus]

16. I don't feel that way. Personally, I think that people will coalesce...

around the establishment candidate and that is Clinton. They seem to every time, especially in uncertain times people want to go with something they know. I also think women will give a huge pass to Clinton on many issues because of her gender.

I'm still hoping for Obama but I think the sharks smell blood in the water.

[patrice]

20. Obama is a Trojan Horse. nt

[opihimoimoi]

36. He is a Trojan Horse but doesn't know it...Some of his help comes from PubStan

Them Pubs play brutal and Sneaky...

[patrice]

43. Their party's dying and they're trying to take over ours and telling us

there's something wrong with us for not believing in THEIR "Morning in America" AGAIN!

[opihimoimoi]

44. They come to DIVIDE US...thats what they do...no real solutions for our Probs

only denigration and BS...watch how they describe things...its all empty language....moot shit..

[patrice]

45. That's why O never says anything specific about Policy - can't turn off

those so called "Independents" and cross-overs.

I was plesed to hear him mention Public Campaign Finance, but now I think that's a Bait and Switch. Oh, he may believe it, but The Powers That BE will have the final say.

[opihimoimoi]

48. Yup....the Powers have the final say....until.....

[Big Blue Marble]

63. For someone who just told me you were leaning 50% Obama

until recently, you sound pretty suspiciously totally anti-Obama on this thread.

[Colobo]

21. Great analysis, kevsand, and hopefully you are right! Gobama!

[bellasgrams]

23. You're either a repb. or to young to have gone thru the days of

Reagan. I don't know anyone but a hard headed repb that would want anything that resembled anything like Reagan, what he said, what he did, nothing. He was worthless.

[kevsand]

28. I'm a 52 year old Dem precinct committeeperson

who grew up in the "other" dem machine in Illinois, St. Clair County. I remember Reagan very well, thank you very much, and despised him. I don't want anything like him ever again, nor did I even remotely say that I did.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

46. AMEN to that! nt

[jenmito]

24. I think that's a good theory. But add to that the votes of "Obama Republicans."

He's the most liberal of the top 3 yet Repubs. and Indys like him the way Dems. liked Reagan. They like his message of hope and a new day.

[cd3dem]

25. they would like him to be the nominee so they can beat him

don't fool yourself!

[jenmito]

31. Wrong. He has the most appeal by FAR. The GOP wants HILLARY to win the nomination

so they can beat her in the general, but regular voters want Obama to be president.

[cd3dem]

40. read yourself another story

[BeatleBoot]

26. This is just SOOO FUUNNNY!!

I am literally crying with laughter.

Talk about being out of touch with the electorate.



Whew!



:rofl:

[Pirate Smile]

29. LOL. I love your disclaimer.

[mzmolly]

33. It's funny. As much as we here claim to follow politics, we sure seem disillusioned when

politicians campaign.

[LulaMay]

37. REAGAN DEMOCRAT?! Now there's an OXYMORON

[rudy23]

42. Aligning himself with Reagan also helps him regain complexity, and moves away from being simply

"the black candidate", as it seems many want to paint him.

[stravu9]

47. You Should Have Taken The Nap FIRST.

JMHO.

[Gloria]

49. You know, I'm hating this crap now....I think Obama and Hillary both

stink, but Obama is becoming more and more insufferable.

Does Obama remember how Reagan stirred "Reagan Democrats" by inventing the stereotypical, black "welfare queen" (when in fact, most on welfare at the time were white?)

[patrice]

51. Look at all of the newbies in this thread, hmmmmm.... nt

[question everything]

54. And he just lost the race to McCain

when a turmoil happens somewhere in the world right before the general elections, McCain shows decisiveness and plan of action, while Obama stammer calling for everyone to "show restraint" and probably is having hard time pointing that place on the map, or knowing anything about that place history, politics, and georgrapy.

[kevsand]

59. Or conversely...

...McCain shows his knee jerk hawkishness to rush to war, and Obama speaks calmly, forcefully, and wisely and ends up bringing the world community into a decisive diplomatic coalition to defuse the crisis. American citizens, who haven't seen anything resembling world class diplomacy since the last century, are so impressed that Obama gets 55% of the popular vote and 80% of the electoral votes.

I'll take Obama's knowledge of history and geography over McCain's any day of the week. He's a whole lot smarter than McCain, and it shows. The U.S. is really, really tired of brute force as a panacea of first recourse.

[BringBigDogBack]

57. That would be swell...

I don't see all of that happening, however, I wouldn't mind it.

[OHdem10]

58. After 20 years they are now rockribbed republicans or they

have become Democrats again.

[cloudythescribbler]

61. I hope you are right. There's other factors though

The enormous front-loading of the primaries on "Tsunami Tuesday" or "Monster Tuesday" as some call it don't give Obama the time that he (or any insurgent candidate) needs to really overcome whoever the presumptive nominee was at the beginning of the process.

But you never know. It'll be interesting to see what happens in NV Sat.