LV Sun: The inevitable Penn poll memo: If we lose, Culinary cheated us

[ursi]

January 18, 2008 · 3:08 PM

As part of the lower-the-expectations game, sprinkled with a why-we-will-challenge-the-results-if-we-lose seasoning, comes Clinton pollster Mark Penn with another of his now-legendary memos:

To: Interested Parties

From: Mark Penn, Chief Strategist

Date: January 18, 2008

Regarding: Will the polls be predictive in Nevada?

The public polls are in and they show Hillary Clinton with a lead in the Nevada caucuses. The Review Journal poll done by Mason Dixon shows Hillary ahead 9 points by 41 to 32, and the Zogby poll puts it at 5 points.

Unlike the tumultuous few days after Iowa when the media was wall-to-wall with coverage of Obama’s Iowa performance and key moments occurred, absent anything dramatic on tonight’s news we are heading into a very normal end of the campaign in Nevada.

So the question is – will these polls be reflective of the result? Turnout is uncertain since the last election saw only 9000 voters come out in 2004. This time the state is in the limelight, and 1800 people were in the debate audience alone, so we may get a significant turnout that could make the results broadly reflective of the polls.

But while union endorsements are usually helpful to candidates they have never come with their own self-contained precincts before. Nine caucus sites have been set up essentially for members of the Culinary union, who have endorsed Senator Obama. Because of a unique weighting system., these sites will count disproportionately in awarding delegates. This should give Obama a clear 5-point advantage starting out.

Can we make that up? Senator Obama’s National Field Director said, “The Nevada election is going to come down to: Whoever gets the endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, more than likely, is going to win Nevada.”

On the other hand, we have a great organization, huge crowds and a great candidate delivering strong message. So stay tuned.

But if the polls turn out differently from the result, there may be an easy explanation for it this time.

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2008/jan/18/inevitable-penn-poll-memo-if-we-lose-culinary-chea/

[sniffa]

1. But if Hillary wins, it's a huge upset.

She came back from being up 25 points to win.

[Unsane]

4. Bwaha

true

[MADem]

2. I have to agree with the first comment at that website

The writer/purveyor of this piece IS biased. Hell, it's a straightforward campaign memo, with a little bit of upbeat and a little bit of asscovering. Like any catherder would write the night before the big day.

That vicious headline appears nowhere in the body of the memo, and it's deliberately crafted like a preemptive jab.

[stillcool]

3. Easy explanation is right here:

http://media.lasvegassun.com/media/pdfs/2008/01/16/OppoDemsMTNRelief.pdf

[ShortnFiery]

12. Yes, unlike the vast majority of Casino (shift work) employees, most TEACHERS work Saturdays.

:wow: Yeah, Bill Clinton SAID that Obama is sending ALL THESE TEACHERS to *detention* tomorrow?!? :crazy: ... uh, on SATURDAY?!?!?!

Hum? SATURDAY & the vast majority of Teaching Position schedules?

Wake-up and smell the petty bull shit that doesn't even pass the smell test on it's surface. :grr:

[stillcool]

14. I'm not getting something here...

[Proud2BAmurkin]

5. And if Obama loses, he's a crappy candidate.

What else would explain it?

[AtomicKitten]

6. Yes, because Culinary union votes are worth 5 x as much as others.

Plus the teachers were pissed that when they woke up on Saturday morning, they couldn't vote at work. x( Or some such nonsense.

Again, I have to marvel at the fact that three of the plaintiffs in the lawsuit, coincidentally I swear ;), all three Clinton advocates, wrote the plan and all was well in the universe until * POW * the Culinary union had the audacity to support Obama, and the Clintons aren't having it. Two days later an injunction was sought by the same people that authored the plan.

[ursi]

8. And so are the rural Nevada precincts. Hill camp has those wrapped up!

please, I live here. don't over react.

[AtomicKitten]

9. my reaction is a reaction to their over-reaction

the Clinton campaign can weave a shitstorm out of nothing

[ursi]

13. I agree, atomickitten! Peace!

[Renew Deal]

7. Mark Penn the union buster wanted to disenfranchise voters.

Oh well.

[ShortnFiery]

10. Well both Penn and HRC should thank Bill Clinton who allowed M$M to consolidate and send ONE ...

message in a myriad of forms. :shrug:

The biggest *tell* (most shameless political hackery for the evening) was almost comically demonstrated by one each, Craig Crawford (CQ) who admitted he was on pain medication for a broken foot. Craig covered every damn Pro-HRC spin "talking point." Hell, he didn't miss a beat. :eyes:

1) We should look at the polls because the NV caucuses are tainted;

2) Obama doesn't know who he is because he was trying to "correct" his "What's my greatest fault answer;"

3) HRC's appearance on Tyra was basically trying to make HRC look more "down to earth" and "real" to women;

4) If HRC wins, It's BIG because she's going in as the underdog - one at the most disadvantaged. (isn't she still ahead in the polls this evening?!?) :crazy:

Craig, perhaps you should take one less pain pill tomorrow night before appearing on KO, lest you reveal that Mark Penn, et. al., have your number on speed-dial? :shrug: :thumbsdown:

Add the above to Tweety's guest, Ms. Wolsh, claiming that "I just got off of a conference call (from God?) and there's going to be a big backlash to The "lucky ducky" Culinary Union having easier access to voting PLUS others claiming that (Saint) "Hillary is shameless" and wants to suppress the Latino Vote.


In essence, all three big Cable networks SPUN positive for HRC and disrespected Obama. Everything that most LOGICAL people would interpret FIRST emanated from HRC's Operatives was *re-evaluated* to throw-back negative impressions of Obama. For example, HRC's people filed the lawsuit two day's after Obama snagged the Culinary Union's endorsment. Although *all parties* agreed on these arrangements as of March 2006, OBAMA will LOSE VOTES because not everyone will have access to the polls. etc. etc. It's just INSANITY! :crazy:


I despise the CORPORATE M$M. Lock. Stock. & Barrel. :thumbsdown:

If Obama can "rise above it" then I will work tirelessly for his campaign because God knows he has *the power elite cronies" from both parties anointed HRC as The Democratic Candidate. One shameless pseudo-journalist likened HRC to Bill's descriptions: "The Come Back Kid." :eyes:

[Barack_America]

11. Wow. Couldn't see this coming a mile away...

:eyes: