Is Zogby a dumb Pollster, or the dumbest Pollster? NV: Clinton 45, Obama 39, Edwards 6

[MadBadger]

Thats right, he has Edwards at 6 percent. I'm gonna saaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyy Bullshit.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1716749120080119

Edited to put Obama in second and not Clinton again.

[Unsane]

1. I guess Gravel gets the remaining 10%?

[aquart]

4. 10% Undecided?

Which is a very healthy, frightening number.

[Unsane]

5. Frightening for whom?

[Lucinda]

2. Looks like he's resorted to picking numbers out of a hat

[aquart]

3. These numbers probably mean Edwards people giving up

And moving to Clinton. Something similar happened in a California poll. Clinton suddenly jumped and Edwards declined, but Obama remained as he'd been in their previous poll.

Clinton and Obama were very close in Nevada before. Suddenly, Edwards goes down and Clinton goes up. Obama isn't getting the Edwards votes.

Yikes! Is it tomorrow?

[Azathoth]

6. I can just see all those Edwards voters switching to a candidate who just sued to disenfranchise

the voters of a major union. Sure...

[Jai4WKC08]

33. Nice try

But that's not what happened.

[Nutmegger]

7. But Edwards supporters will go to Obama!

I heard it here on DU!!! :crazy:

[book_worm]

9. according to Zogby Clinton picked up 3-points and Obama 2-points.

[book_worm]

8. What can you expect the media has ignored Edwards and focused on Obama/Hillary

Zogby says Edwards support has "collapsed" but if its so then its because of the media, which ignored his superb debate performance. I think Edwards will do better than 6%, but if he doesn't the ? will be who is the second choice of most of his supporters because it could make the difference in who wins.

[CK_John]

10. Edwards blinking tic reminds me of the wheels going backward in those old movies. n/t

[kerstin]

11. The poll has Edwards at 9%.

Clinton and Obama in a virtual tie. (38.5% and 38%, respectively.)

[Divine Discontent]

12. that's fun stuff...

It just goes to show you cannot trust the pollsters. How does one have Edwards at 25% or so, and another have him at 3-9% with MOE. If he does that poorly, fine, he'll accept it and move on, but I just don't trust any poll now. I was excited to see John move up in the national poll 5 points, but who knows.

But, is this perhaps part of the GOP's goal? To make us not believe EXIT polls, ultimately? Because Kerry was ahead 51-49 in Ohio and Florida on election day, and lost badly in FL and by the flip # in Ohio. They want to make people believe polls are totally irrelevant so they can corrupt the real numbers on election day??? :tinfoilhat:

[book_worm]

13. well the American Research Group which just after NH had Edwards at 25%

now has him at 9%. I hope they are wrong, but all the major polls have been showing over the last few days as the media has focused on Hillary and Obama and ignored Edwards that Edwards has declined. The media will get the choice they want.

[Divine Discontent]

15. if people are that easily led by what the media tells them

this country will be in the shitter (we're in the hallway to the shitter now) in less than a decade... to see these polls go up and down so FAST is scary... there should be only a few points difference in polls unless something major happened in a candidates storyline. I don't trust the pollsters anymore. it does seem truly, they want to get the one they want, voter be damned, and its up to the people to ignore the media and look at the candidates policies and plans, how many do that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I Think You Have NV And SC Mixed Up

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[jackson_dem]

24. ARG has him at 9% in SC. They have him at 25% in Nevada

[smalll]

14. Whoa! Six percent? That's Rudith 9iu11liani bad!

At this point, we can confidently say that Edwards is now in a Tier Of His Own. (As Hillary and Obama battle it out for the eventual win.)

[F.Gordon]

16. Sadly. The Edwards numbers might be accurate

... when you consider how the "viability" factor works in the Nevada cluster f... err.. caucus. There may be precincts where Edwards doesn't meet the minimum. His "votes" then either go to another 'group' or they disappear into the Uncommitted Abyss.

Caucuses which elect
one (1) delegate No groups may form, the delegate must be elected by the whole caucus

Caucuses which elect
two (2) delegates Viable groups must contain 25% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .25)

Caucuses which elect
three (3) delegates Viable groups must contain 1/6th of attendees (# eligible attendees, divided by 6)

Caucuses which elect
four (4) or more delegates Viable groups must contain 15% of attendees (# eligible attendees X .15)

Any preference group that is not viable must be given time to realign with preference groups that are viable or with another preference group that is also not viable.

One Person - One Vote
:patriot:

[CK_John]

17. Those are Iowa rules not NV rules. n/t

[F.Gordon]

18. Page 10..........

http://www.nvdemscaucus.com/images/draftdelselupdated_oct2007l.pdf

It says 'Nevada' but I guess there could have been a typo or sumtin'.

[sunonmars]

19. If Edwards polls low figures about 10% today

He's finished really, he needs to pull out and let the other two get on with the Battle Royale.

If Edwards is finished and drops out before SC , Obama is in a whole heap of trouble.

when people at this point now realise he cant position a win, they will bolt for other candidates, its normal.

[Yukari Yakumo]

29. Hell, even in the teens he's finished

Last I heard, his numbers in SC are quite bad. Lousy finishes in both NV and SC will Deep-6 his campaign.

Though ego and the vain belief he can become a "kingmaker" will keep him in the race.

[BringBigDogBack]

20. dumbest, it appears...

I guarantee Edwards finishes better than with 6%

[rjx]

21. People pay to much attention to polls

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. I Have Been A Consistent Critic Of Zo(m)by

He is not respected by other pollsters or other researchers...

It is ironic though that people here love him when his polls show Hillary doing poorly...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. Either Edwards Totally Collapsed And Zogby Will Look Like A Genius For Predicting It

Or he got it very wrong and will look like a totally idiot...

We'll see...

[jackson_dem]

26. That has to be bull. Edwards worst polling number was 8% in Nevada in 2006

It makes no sense that he is doing worse now than he did in 2006 and all of 2007, especially since the field has winnowed down. It also does not comport with the other polling in Nevada after NH which showed him strong. Nationally Edwards has remained stable or even rising as evidenced by the latest CNN poll. It makes no sense that Edwards tanked in Nevada overnight. The only thing that gives this a flicker of possibility is Clinton's attack on him over Yucca Mountain. We will know the truth in a few hours.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. It's Hard To Believe, Isn't It

But Hillary has been consistent about Yucca Mountain...

[jackson_dem]

28. I still don't think Yucca would cause him to go from 25-27% to 6% in days

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. Me Neither

Maybe Zogby's plain wrong...

[NoBorders]

31. Nevada polls are all shiite

I don't know why they're bothering. They have no idea who is going to turn out. Said the newly minted polling expert.

[Karmadillo]

32. I don't know about Zogby, but caucus polling is suspect at best.

nt

[Nimrod2005]

34. Not only Zogby shows this, and I DON'T buy it!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Whatever You Say A Prudent Man Should Just Think Otherwise

~

[hayu_lol]

37. Nevada is just not an Edwards state. His chance to shine is in the south...

All he has to do is hang on long enough to get those states.

[Yukari Yakumo]

36. Eeriely accurate...

In fact, Edwards did worse than polls indicated.

John, throw in the towel. You're done.