How badly would a loss in Nevada hurt Obama's chances?

[water]

Is a loss in Nevada significant? I know that Obama has some major endorsements, but Clinton has always been ahead on the polls.

How much is this state supposed to swing the race?

[sunonmars]

1. depends on the %

If its a big one, he's in trouble.

[rox63]

2. I don't think it would affect him much

Hillary has always led in the polls in NV. In fact, it looks good for Obama that it's this close. What would suck for Obama would be to lose SC, which I don't think will happen.

[David Zephyr]

3. It won't hurt a bit because no one gave Obama a chance at Nevada.

It was either going to go to Edwards or Hillary.

Obama's showing is remarable.

And Obama will take South Carolina tonight.

Today was Obama's day.

[Tammie]

11. Isn't the SC Dem. Caucus next Saturday? n/t

[FrenchieCat]

4. Nevada is has been Clinton country for a year......

Reid, the Majority leader, is son has been working Nevada for some time.

All Representative statewide and many locals all have been pledged to Hillary for months on out.

It was Hillary's to lose....but everyone knew that would mean Obama making a +30 pt jump.

It was an impossibility for Barack, and even coming in 10 pts behind means a +20 pt increase in just a two week period.

[tekisui]

5. Not much. Clinton was expected to win, easily, in the past weeks.

Obama has made it close. SC is more important.

[Lucinda]

6. If he wins South Carolina he's still in great shape. I think Nevada will be close enough

that a loss wouldnt hurt either of them.

[MH1]

7. Not at all, it was expected.

[Nedsdag]

8. A lot!

The media will say that Hillary has momentum and that is the end of that.

The media will call Obama the "black candidate" who can't win white and latino votes.

It's practically over.

[thoughtcrime1984]

10. Baloney

The amount of delegates that Obama gets will be just slightly less than what Hil gets. The media has been pushing Hil lately regardless of anything, so nothing will change. Obama really needs SC, though.

[Nedsdag]

20. She has the super delegates in her favor.

I hope Obama wins SC. But that's from my lips to God's ears.

[thoughtcrime1984]

25. Superdelegates are not set in stone

They can change at the convention. Can't wait for SC!

[Thrill]

9. Obama was down 20% there just a few weeks ago

If he wins here. It should be a surprise

[Eurobabe]

12. It's a fight to the finish as I see it...

[Fresh_Start]

13. dont think it matters much

but a win would be huge for him

[VolcanoJen]

14. It would prove that union endorsements are meaningless...

... in that union voters are clearly split, and are not at all voting in a bloc.

I think that's pretty interesting.

[Fresh_Start]

15. lots of union members supported Bush over Kerry

not the majority but 35% or so.

They are not a bloc.
And happily right now the evangelicals are not a bloc.

[Renew Deal]

17. The unions have been losing at least the last two cycles.

AFSCME has lost twice in Iowa (Dean and Hillary). The culinary endorsement made it close, but that's all.

[Renew Deal]

16. Obama was never ahead in NV.

So it might slow some of his momemntum, but ultimately, I don't think it really hurts.

[VolcanoJen]

22. With South Carolina just a week away...

... he needs to work like hell. The Clintons have already shown they're going to fight for this, by whatever means necessary.

It's on, isn't it?

[Renew Deal]

26. It sure is.

It should be quite a race.

[marlakay]

18. I agree that unions can't tell you how to vote

my husband belongs to a union and if I didn't agree with the dem they told me to vote for in past elections I didn't. We are retired now and live in a different state so it doesn't matter, but just because you belong to a union doesn't mean you have to go with them.

And I am not for Clinton at all so that isn't why i said this...

[Metric System]

21. SPIN, SPIN, SPIN

Apparently, no matter the result, Obama is the winner. Uh huh. Listen, at one time Hillary was the front-runner and way ahead of the pack. Now she has a competitor and there's nothing wrong with some competition. But it's not just any competitor, it's an appealing, charismatic, young competitor who rallies the youth and inspires with his talk of hope and change. He's a formidable and viable opponent so there should be no surprise that he has closed in on her poll numbers. At this point, given that Obama has proven himself as a candidate and has amassed many supporters, I don't think Hillary's win here should be minimized, just as an Obama win shouldn't be minimized either.

[VolcanoJen]

23. Absolutely nobody in this thread is saying that.

We're analyzing the results, and talking Democratic party politics. This race is clearly tightening and is poised to go on for quite awhile, and I certainly don't think anyone is trying to spin this as Obama is the winner no matter the result.

[thoughtcrime1984]

27. No spin at all, sir

Hillary is getting one more delegate in Nevada than Obama is. A very close finish, not something that either candidate can run with.

[Barack_America]

19. It's pretty incredible it's this close. How much will a loss in SC hurt Hillary?

That's the question.

It's all about Super Tuesday now.

[Debi]

24. A 5% loss (which is where he is at w/79% reporting) won't hurt him

If it had been a blow-out like the 20-some-odd, that was showing before the Iowa Caucuses, he'd be in trouble.

But a close finish will keep both campaigns active into South Carolina.

John Edwards? :shrug: Man, I just don't know.