Pollster Report Card

[wyldwolf]

24 polling firms have polled one or more of the 7 Presiential Primaries and Caucuses to date in 2008. Here’s how the pollsters stack-up, ranked from smallest average error to largest average error (where smaller error is better, and zero is perfect).



Not all 24 pollsters polled on the same contests or on the same number of contests.

Certain contests, unexpectedly, appear to have presented a greater challenge for pollsters, for as yet unknown reasons, such as the New Hampshire Democratic Primary.

Other contests were anticipated to create great polling challenges, but did not, such as the Nevada Democratic Caucus.

Here is a Pollster Report Card through and including 01/19/08.

All information drawn from www.RealClearPolitics.com and from www.Pollster.com. No polls or polling firms were intentionally omitted.



More...

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/01/20/2008-presidential-primary-pollster-report-card/

[Jim__]

1. That's a tough thing to measure.

For instance, the top rated pollster only did 1 poll, and that was for the SC GOP; which looks relatively stable - most pollsters did fairly well on that one. One of the worst ranked is CBS which did only 1 survey, and that was NH Dem - which looks to be the most difficult to have polled.

It would be interesting to try to come up with a better measure.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. thanks for the second chart

I saw the first one on another post this morning, and was wondering if all the pollsters had predicted every race. Now I can get a clearer picture on who was doing what.

[OzarkDem]

3. Anything over 4.0 is considered unreliable

Sure are a lot of them in that category, bet they're crying all the way to the bank.