Hillary down to 15% black support in South Carolina. Edwards at 1%

[jackson_dem]

The main story out of this poll is dictated by who is leading. Since it is Obama Hillary's collapse among blacks is the story, not Obama's poor showing with whites. Who would have ever thought a Clinton would be doing this bad with black voters in South Carolina? The reasons for this can--and will be debated much after the Saturday vote.

This was a poll obviously taken before the debate so we need to remember that.

Overall: Obama 44%, Hillary 28%, Edwards 15%

Blacks: Obama 70%, Hillary 15%, Edwards 1%, Kucinich 1%
Whites: Hillary 43%, Edwards 30%, Obama 17%, Kucinich 1%

Women: Obama 45%, Hillary 29%, Edwards 12%, Kucinich 1%
Men: Obama 43%, Hillary 27%, Edwards 18%, Kucinich 2%

Hillary losing as badly among women as men is a surprise and perhaps a warning sign for the campaign. Or it could be a result of South Carolina's relatively unique situation.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_SC_Release_012208.pdf

[jsamuel]

1. Note that this was taken before the debate, the MLK III's letter, and the CWA endorsement

lets see if that changes anything for Edwards

[jackson_dem]

2. 70% for Obama man. The best Edwards can do is beat Hillary in South Carolina

He isn't going to win with 70% of half the vote going to one guy. Edwards is down 35-1 right off the bat in South Carolina with the black vote. He is only beating Obama by 13 among whites. That isn't going to make up a 69 point deficit with blacks.

I am an optimist by nature but there is little reason for hope in South Carolina for Edwards. I would be happy if he got 20% of the vote there.

[guerrillafiter]

4. So is Bill angry rhetoric helping her in NY, Cali, Florida, etc.?

Let's not make up reasons for poll numbers.

[jackson_dem]

7. Judging by polling, yes

[DJ13]

3. Bill's angry rhetoric is hurting her campaign

And it wont help that she left Bill behind in SC while she campaigns in "more important" states.

[jackson_dem]

6. She has done better ever since Bill went loose. South Carolina is an exception

South Carolina is where Obama benefited from McClurkin (the gay-bashing card) and later knocked Hillary out during the racial argument of two weeks ago.

[Barack_America]

5. Um, what happened to Hillary's "Women" support? n/t

[Levgreee]

8. Seems that support is more confined to white(and older, I believe) women

[Barack_America]

12. I agree...n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Hillary Is Getting Destroyed Among African Americans And Since They Comprise 50% Of The Electorate

All subsidiary categories are going to be affected...

[NJSecularist]

9. This is not good news for Obama going forward

He's third in the white vote, behind perennial 3rd-placer John Edwards. His campaign needs to address this quick, or he is going to get slaughtered on Super Tuesday.

[cobalt1999]

10. That'll be the main media storyline after the SC election too.

Turning Super Tuesday into a perceived racial split will help Hillary.

[GodlessBiker]

13. Why? Because the majority of voters are racists?

And will only vote for a candidate of their own race?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. I Wish We Wouldn't Talk About Race All The Time ...

As things get worse and worse economically maybe a lot of folks think Hillary Clinton can bring back that nineties magic... I don't think it's a rejection of Senator Obama...

[jackson_dem]

16. Hillary has Bill's 90's record and Edwards' message has ALWAYS been economic

That means going back to 2004 for the Edwards' swift boaters. "Two Americas" anyone? Obama is the most likely to be hurt by the economic downturn since his campaign was never based on any real issue, let alone the economy.

[JackORoses]

21. "Hillary has Bill's 90's record " - It's a damn shame Hillary has to use Bill as a booster seat

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. Wrong Place

....

[cobalt1999]

17. Because a majority of voters want a candidate that is looking out for their interests.

If the meme gets planted that Obama is the candidate for African-Americans, then it will cause a large section of the country to vote elsewhere.

[GodlessBiker]

19. So low income blacks have different interests than low income whites?

What interests do people have that are different because of their race?

[FiveGoodMen]

23. If people REALLY voted their own best interests, do you think we'd have the gov't we have now?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Obama Does Well With African Americans And Folks Who Earn Over $100K

Hillary does well with older folks, less well off folks, older women, and Hispanics...

I don't see this racial component...

[jackson_dem]

26. Obama is at 70% with blacks and a distant third among whites

There clearly is a racial component. At the opposite end of the spectrum Edwards is at 30% with whites and 1% with blacks.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. Once Senator Obama Proved He Was A Viable Candidate Many African Americans Gravitated Toward Him

That doesn't mean that the groups who stuck with Clinton are doing so because she was white...

I suspect if it was Obama v Edwards Obama would win... That's not a rap on JRE who I liked and contributed to...

[jackson_dem]

15. Yup

[Lucinda]

18. The poll also had a larger sample of black voters, so GOTV

and the debate will both be factors in the final SC outcome.

[KennedyGuy]

20. Obama will get NC..

then he's done.

[GalleryGod]

25. SHE supports Bill but NOT Hill

EX-Neighbor...

[suston96]

28. Get ur calculator out or take off your shoes and use your toes and do some figuring.....

http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/96vr?countykey=ALL&D1=RACE

1,617,142 white
629,100 non-white

Now use those percentages in the OP's poll and have fun.

If they all voted here is what I came up with: Obama 735,914 Hillary 761,521

Check me out, fer sure. If I am correct then voter turnout is what will pick the winner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. You Missed An Important Variable

Most of SC whites are registered Republicans or Indys...

[suston96]

32. Good point. Well, gotta take my shoes off and try again.......

[joshcryer]

33. Damn, if that happens...

[Kahuna]

29. She'll be less than that after last night. nt

[Catbird]

31. ES&S may have the deciding votes in SC

All bets are off, and the polls may not mean anything. Our South Carolina voting machines (ES&S) can not be trusted. I have heard reports of miscalibration problems already. If I get something more definitive I will post it.