### UNOFFICIAL SUPER TUESDAY (and beyond) PRIMER ###

[THUNDER HANDS]

There are 22 states up for grabs a week from today.

The following are the states that are having primaries, and the number of delegates (including super delegates) at stake...

California = 440
New York = 280
Illinois = 185
New Jersey = 127
Massachusettes = 121
Georgia = 103
Missouri = 88
Minnesota = 88
Tennessee = 85
Colorado = 70
Arizona = 67
Connecticut = 61
Alabama = 60
Arkansas = 47
Oklahmoma = 47
Kansas = 40
New Mexico = 38
Utah = 29
Delaware = 23
Idaho = 23
North Dakota = 21
Alaska = 18

As you can see, the bottom 18 states have less delegates at sake (1029), than the top 4 states do (1032).

But, this is not a winner-take-all primary. It's proprotional. If you get above 15% in any state - you get some delegates. if you get above 30% - you get even more.

You need 2025 to win the nomination. Right now Clinton has the slight edge (by about 100) if you count superdelegates, yet she still has less than 250 overall.

By the end of Tuesday, she could have at least 1000 going into the next primary if she hovers around 40% in the big states. If Obama cracks 30% in all the states he runs in, at the very least he will end up with 800 delegates. That's the floor for them both. From what I can see by looking at the numbers, Clinton should head out of Super Tuesday with 1,200 delegates and Obama should have 1,000.

That's still not enough to secure the nomination. Which means we go to:

Louisiana = 68 delegates
Washington = 97 delegates
Maine = 34 delegates
Maryland = 99 delegates
D.C. = 38 delegates
Virginia = 103 delegates
Wisconsin = 92 delegates
Hawaii = 29 delegates

A total of 560 delegates up for grabs. Assuming the vote stays consistent (ie, Edwards stays in the race, sucking up about 15% of the vote), Clinton should have 1,400 delegates and Obama 1,200. Even if Edwards drops out, the vote will still be around 50-50 or at most 60-40, which means the two will be hovering within 200 delegates of eachother for the next week or two.

And then comes March, where we get closer to the last stand being made....

Texas = 228 delegates
Mississippi = 38 delegates
Ohio = 162 delegates
South Dakota = 22 delegates
Nebraska = 31 delegates
Rhode Island = 32 delegates
Vermont = 23 delegates

That's 536 delegates. If patterns hold and the race remains close, Clinton could come out of this with an overall delegate total of 1,600 - 1,700 delegates and Obama 1,400 - 1,500.

April will bring...

Pennsylvania = 181 delegates

If Edwards support drops off, below 15%, then the two will be balling between them for almost 100 delegates each. If Clinton wins, and wins big, she could be up anywhere between 200 and 300 delegates. But if Obama wins, he could narrow her gap to 200 or 150. Either way, both candidates should have between 1,450 and 1,700 delegates.

And then in May it comes down to...

North Carolina = 110 delegates.
Kentucky = 55 delegates.
Indiana = 79 delegates.
Nebraska = 31 delegates.
Oregon = 62 delegates.
South Dakota = 22 delegates

That's 359 delegates. Conceivably, those states should set the frontrunner, whoever it is, to within 100 or 200 delegates of the magic number of 2025.

Unfortunately, we're out of states.

And then it goes to a brokered convention. Unless....

Unless....


Unless the votes from Michigan and Florida are counted, in which case Clinton would be the nominee.

And that is your Super Tuesday and BEYOND primer.

[Maven]

1. Very helpful

Thanks for putting this together.

[joshcryer]

2. MI and FL CANNOT be counted for nomination.

And just to preempt the lies from Obama supporters, Clinton never suggested the be used to count nomination. Merely that they be seated.

[NJSecularist]

3. Thank you

I had an idea of how the process works but an easy guide is always helpful!

[MadHound]

4. And sadly, after all of this, we'll still be stuck with a corporately compromised candidate

And this corporately compromised candidate will run against the 'Pugs corporately compromised candidate, and guess who wins in the end. Corporations.

Meanwhile we the people will continue to lose until we take corporate money out of the equation and institute publicly financed elections.

[NJSecularist]

9. Good grief

Can we go a thread without a John Edwards soapbox rant?

[MadHound]

12. LOL, you know what they say about ass u me don't you?

I'm not an Edwards fan, and I only consider him slightly less corporately compromised that Obama and Hillary.

No, I'm just one fucking disgusted longtime Democrat who is pissed that a once proud party who stood up to corporations and for the ordinary person has now degenerated into simply one more way for corporations to keep their stranglehold over our government and our people.

Anymore assumptions you would like to make?

[surfermaw]

15. Mad Hound the winning reply

[MadHound]

17. Thanks, nice to know that there are others out there who also see clearly

And are as disgusted with what's happening as much as I am.

After thirty six years of supporting, working, voting, sweating and donating to the Democratic Party, I'm seriously thinking about going Green this year. Sure, they don't have much power, but they have integrity, honesty, and are the only truly progressive party out there.

I'm just beyond disgusted and depressed by our slate of candidates, corporate whores every one.

[joshcryer]

5. BTW, aren't some Super Tuesday states "all or nothing" (not proportional)?

[tekisui]

7. None on the Dem sied are "winner-take-all"

[THUNDER HANDS]

8. no, they're all proportional

the GOP one's are winner take all

[joshcryer]

10. OK thanks. Thought I saw that somewhere.

[tekisui]

6. I was working the numbers today, too.

But, I don't count the Superdelegates. I don't think anyone will have more than 700 on the morning of Feb 6th.

It will definitely go long. I truly hope someone seals it before the Convention and without the need of Florida and Michigan.

[joshcryer]

11. If FL and MI actually matter to our convention, they're the least of our problems. ;)

If it happens the way Magic Rat wants it to, we're looking at Obama not allowing them to be seated, quite an unusual event to take place.

[tekisui]

16. It can't be fair, either way.

It isn't fair to the other candidates for MI's delegates to be seated or FL, since no one was allowed to campaign there.

If they don't seat them, those voters were snubbed.

They messed up with this. They should have worked out a fair compromise before the Primaries. Now, it is too late, and I don't see how the delegates can be seated, fairly. Especially if it effects the final winner.

[joshcryer]

18. The odds of Magic Rat's scenario are extraoridinarily small.

Someone did the math in my other thread and it looked like a 58 point spread between the two. If Magic Rat expects it to be *that* close then I really don't know what to tell them.

And if the "ideal" scenario is Obama not seating FL and MI, then I too don't know what to tell anyone who wants such a dividing statement to be made.

[THUNDER HANDS]

19. what spread are you talking about?

the one without superdelegates?

[MaineDem]

13. You forgot...

American Samoa - 3 delegates
Democrats Abroad - 11 delegates
Guam - 9 delegates
Puerto Rico - 63 delegates
Virgin islands - 9 delegates


Ninety-five delegates, which could be significant.

[druidity33]

14. k+r... nt