Intrade-Senator Obama Favored In Less Than A Handful Of Super Tuesday States

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

[Tellurian]

1. People are starting to see through Obama's Carnival of Charades.

Hillary rising as we see Obama slipping!

I'm sure Florida is thrilled with Obama's "stupid" comments telling them their vote doesn't matter!

[pampango]

2. Perhaps, but the case could be made that the more people see (through?) Obama

during actual campaigning the better he does. The less they see of him (no campaigning in Michigan and Florida), the worse he does.

How that plays out in the new campaigning style that Super Tuesday requires, remains to be seen.

[Uben]

3. If they don't know the Obama message by now.....

...his campaign has failed miserably. I think they have done a good job getting his message out, and he has made good showings in the primaries thus far. It remains to be seen if his message resonates with voters over Clinton's.

[pampango]

4. You're right. If they don't know it by now, that's a problem, but candidates

continue to campaign for a reason, presumably to get their message to new voters. As you say, we'll see if the campaigning over the next week enables his message to resonate over Clinton's or vice versa.

[Tellurian]

5. That is the point..Obama's message is about nuance. His speeches are not issue based..

Many people have spoken to me about it..They concur, all you get is "air".. when you hear him speak.

[pampango]

6. I don't see Obama's campaign is any less issues based than Hillary's.

They both talk about the war, health care, the economy, etc. They have different positions on some issues, but not to the same extent as they would have with some of the candidates who have dropped out.

I realize that a proven strategy for an "establishment" candidate when faced with a challenge from an "insurgent" is to shift the latter from lofty speeches to specifics that people may disagree with. (I remember when Walter Mondale used the "Where's the beef?" line against Gary Hart to accomplish this.) When an "insurgent" is always talking about "hope" and "change" and such things, it is difficult to combat that.

The outsider almost always uses the "hope and change" strategy. Heck, to some extent we will be using that on the Republicans in November. "Hope and change" will work much better for us than it will for them. They will want to stay away from that and force the discussion to specific issues, e.g. war, immigration, etc., in the hopes that voters will disagree with us on specifics.

[calico1]

7. His speech sounds nice the once, maybe twice

but then you want to know details and he just goes on with the hope and unity stuff. Hope and unity are nice goals but people are concerned about more tangible things like the economy, the war, the environment, etc. Details, specific details....That's why I just can't be bothered with him anymore.