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Do Hillary supporters here understand that Super Tuesday won't crown her as the nominee?

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:30 AM
Original message
Do Hillary supporters here understand that Super Tuesday won't crown her as the nominee?
She may well emerge as the frontrunner, but she won't be wrapping up the nomination that day. Virtually no analyst thinks that's possible. Do they also understand that Obama is well poised to pick up a a considerable chunk of the delegates, and the Edwards will pick up anywhere from 150 to 300?

If Hillary supporters think that 2/5 will settle this race, they're wrong.
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Why Syzygy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
1. I don't think they do.
Didn't they believe it was over before it even started?
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soundguy Donating Member (205 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:34 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Good!
How's ole Barrys' numbers looking here in Ohio :)
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mondo joe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
3. I don't think anyone knows what will happen and the race is wide open.
I don't understand supporters of any candidate making declarations about what's going to happen.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:38 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. I spent an hour listening to Peter Hart parse the polls and
explaining how delegates are apportioned. He made a very convincing case for no candidate emerging as the presumptive nominee.
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Submariner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
4. Billary is not the "inevitable" prez she thought she would be
Folks are finally catching on that she is part of the neocon crowd.
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dmallind Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:37 AM
Response to Original message
5. True, because of no winner-take-all primaries I'm afgraid.
However the winner of 2/5 states, assuming there is a winner who takes significantly more than anyone else, will be in an exceptionally strong position to clean up.

This idea of dplitting delegates has its price when we have an even vaguely close race - it essentially mandates a long expensive and bruising primary. I'm fine with those up to a point, but the GE is the thing and I don;t want catfighting and wasted resources going into summer. I don't particularly care which of the big two it is, but I hope a clear frontrunner who can start running the table thereafter DOES emerge from 2/5.
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Uben Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
7. I certainly understand that
The probability is high that we will have no winner after Feb 5th, but we will most likely have a solid frontrunner. That status usually garners the donations and endorsements needed to make the final push. A dead even Super Tuesday will put us right back where we are now, a toss up, and most likely a brokered convention.
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calico1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:41 AM
Response to Original message
8. Sure I do.
Most (or all?) of the States are not winner take all. They will still be fighting it out after Super Tuesday. I don't see either candidate winning by a rout in every State.
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islandmkl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:44 AM
Response to Original message
9. winner take all in primaries
is a flawed process in reference to the contests in question. Aren't we supposed to be determining the 'will of the party'? To deny the concept of 'one man, one vote', especially by Democrats, does nothing but keep the in-power in power. 'It ain't the hammer that holds things together, it's the nails.'
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mohc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
10. Everything is up in the air
Polling has not focused too much on the Super Tuesday states as of yet, and with good reason. There are still a lot of undecided voters, and the situation changes with every primary we get past. IMHO, I think despite Florida Obama is going to make major gains over the next week. Obama is probably going to be wishing that Democrats still used some WTA primaries. I think he will end up winning more states that Clinton, but most if not all but Illinois will be very small wins. However I think Clinton is going to have a handful of large wins mixed in small ones. In the end I would expect Obama to win more states, but Clinton more delegates.
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JohnnyLib2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:48 AM
Response to Original message
11. This Clinton supporter doesn't expect a wrap up.

Just a long, bumpy march toward nominating her.
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shenmue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-30-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
12. Do Obama supporters have anything to offer besides Hillary-bashing?
You have to realize there's more to building up your candidate than tearing down someone else. When you insult her supporters, you forget that you're talking to people whom you would prefer to vote for your candidate instead. Sen. Clinton's earned some pretty decent victories, and you don't seem to know why, let alone have respect. If you don't do those things, you won't pick up those votes either. I have hardly seen an Obama supporter on this site who isn't stroppy and doesn't waste time bickering instead of proving why their candidate would supposedly be better. Pestering people isn't the same as building your case. That's why you're not getting anywhere outside of what you expect: you're so sure you're right, you don't think you have to really test yourself for *all* the people. You're smug, and you don't care about the other side's arguments. You're collectively acting like brats.

Don't bite the hand that feeds you. There's still a long way to go.
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