Latest Head to Head polls. Hillary & Obama vs McCain

[rinsd]

Poll	     Date	   Sample	McCain (R) Clinton (D) Und	Spread
RCP Average	01/09 - 01/27	-	46.8	45.0	6.6	McCain +1.8
Rasmussen	01/25 - 01/27	1200 LV	48	40	12	McCain (R) +8.0
NBC/WSJ	        01/20 - 01/22	1008 A	46	44	6	McCain (R) +2.0
LAT/Bloomberg	01/18 - 01/22	1312 RV	42	46	7	Clinton (D) +4.0
USA T/Gallup	01/10 - 01/13	1106 LV	50	47	1	McCain (R) +3.0
Hotline/FD	01/10 - 01/12	803 RV	47	43	7	McCain (R) +4.0
CNN	        01/09 - 01/10	840 RV	48	50	--	Clinton (D) +2.0 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html

Poll	     Date	   Sample	McCain (R) Obama (D) Und	Spread
RCP Average	01/09 - 01/27	-	44.7	43.2	8.6	McCain +1.5
Rasmussen	01/25 - 01/27	1200 LV	47	41	12	McCain (R) +6.0
NBC/WSJ 	01/20 - 01/22	1008 A	42	42	6	Tie
LAT/Bloomberg	01/18 - 01/22	1312 RV	42	41	12	McCain (R) +1.0
USA T/Gallup	01/10 - 01/13	1106 LV	50	45	2	McCain (R) +5.0
Hotline/FD	01/10 - 01/12	803 RV	39	41	11	Obama (D) +2.0
CNN	        01/09 - 01/10	840 RV	48	49	--	Obama (D) +1.0 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

McCain is gonna be tough.

[SteppingRazor]

1. Once he's up there next to Obama or Hillary, mumbling about more wars...

I expect those numbers to change very fast.

[rinsd]

3. True, head to head numbers are likely to change between now and Sept/Oct

I just hope that the change is for the better.

[dmallind]

4. I concur

McCain is coasting on his outdated "maverick moderate" vibe and has not been the target of significant attacks. Even the Republican attacks are for hardcore partisans and actually inflate his "independent" cred by calling him essentially a RINO. Obviously we will not be that stupid, and will paint him as very much the stay the course right winger he really is.

[ScreamingMeemie]

9. Yeah...we thought that about Bush too...

and we were wrong.

[SteppingRazor]

17. I never thought that about Bush in 2000 or 2004.

Both times, I was worried that our candidate lacked charisma and wouldn't look good in a side-by-side comparison. But this time, whether its Obama or Hillary, that "it factor" is on our side.

[ScreamingMeemie]

19. Sorry. You're on your own. There is no "it" factor.

Only among diehard, vote for a ham sandwich if it says it's Democratic, Dem. No it factor. Elections been lost. Fucked up again. A shame really. And the majority of people (and I'm guessing you were one, even if you deny it) thought Bush lost it with his bumbling around in the debates. Say hello to your next new president, McCain.

[SteppingRazor]

21. Actually, if you'll recall most people thought Bush won the debates against Gore.

The 2000 debates just led to people snickering over lockboxes and heavy sighs.

And to suggest that neither Obama nor Hillary has charisma or star power is laughable. As for the last bit -- say hello to President McCain -- fuck that. Quitting is for suckers and cowards.

[ScreamingMeemie]

22. My life, and my really fucking giving a damn ended the day my husband

died. Do I give a shit what you think? Not really...come to think of it, not at all. They've fucked up and I'll say it again and again. I am living in a state that is going to become red. A state full of Dem voters who somehow love Mitt. Call me a coward, I just don't give a fuck about much but getting my kids off to school. And telling the truth about the farce that has been this race. Cheers.

[jackstraw45]

2. Iraq

McCain wants us to be there forever.

It HAS to, and will, become an issue again.

[Bread and Circus]

5. Thank you for pointing this out. People really underestimate what

a fight this will become.

And remember, this is not a national election. This will be all about the swing states and their swing votes + turnout - voter suppression. Throw in election fraud and you've got yourself a really stiff race.

[Prefer]

6. Just keep hoping for change

remember - making a statement is more important than winning...

[Occam Bandage]

7. While fun to look at, polls are worthless this far out. Look at Rudy's campaign.

[rinsd]

8. Nothing definitive of course.

But a sobering reminder that beyond this primary there is much work to be done.

[Occam Bandage]

10. We'll have to hit the ground running, but we'll have a much better idea

how this race is going to look:

1. Once we have a nominee,
2. Once there's been the first couple attack cycles.

[rinsd]

11. Experience is gonna be an in issue with either Obama or Clinton going against McCain

Ya think Joe Biden or some other statesman type would get the nod as VP to compensate?

[cd3dem]

13. Obama has 3.6% probability of winning over McCain... in state to state match up

we know from 2000 and 2004... this is not about national numbers but electoral votes....


http://hominidviews.com/?p=1250

http://hominidviews.com/?p=1237

[Occam Bandage]

16. Yeah, but, again, way too far out to say anything either way.

[Occam Bandage]

14. You gotta watch out when you do that.

People don't vote for VP, and Lloyd Bentsen actually made Dukakis look even worse by comparison. You don't want people saying your VP is better-qualified than you are. A dullish technocrat like Richardson would be smarter than a brilliant firebrand like Biden.

[rinsd]

20. I was thinking of Richardson too.

Great resume, great diplomacy experience but not a shining star on the stage.

[Occam Bandage]

27. That's why I think he'd be a good choice; frankly nobody

can top Obama when it comes to the electric speech (and I thought so back when I was a Bidenite, so this isn't the inner fanboy talking), so it's pointless to aim for magnetism. Any minute the national stage is given to anyone else is wasted; he needs a policy-minded '00 Cheney or '92 Gore, not an attractive '88 Quayle or an experienced '88 Bentsen.

Hillary, on the other hand, needs some magnetism badly. It would be a pain to lose '08 because the campaign became about "Shrillery." Biden would be a okay choice for her, even though he's expressed an unwillingness to work in a white house containing Bill. I hope their side-by-side seating at the SOTU would suggest some degree of reconciliation (though not an endorsement yet ;)). My only concerns there are a lack of geographic balance and Biden's somewhat-checkered past--add his to Hillary's past, and we run the risk of this election turning into a issue of openness and honesty, and McCain wins that one.

[elocs]

12. Remember when Dukakis led Bush in the polls in May of 1988?

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=940DEEDD1F3EF934A25756C0A96E948260

" Poll Shows Dukakis Leads Bush; Many Reagan Backers
Shift Sides

By E. J. DIONNE JR.
Published: May 17, 1988

LEAD: Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts
about Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's
handling of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite
for the Presidential election in November, according to the
latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Michael S. Dukakis is capitalizing on deep public doubts about
Vice President Bush and the Reagan Administration's handling
of key issues and has emerged as the early favorite for the
Presidential election in November, according to the latest New
York Times/CBS News Poll.

Mr. Dukakis, the probable Democratic nominee, ran ahead of Mr.
Bush, the almost certain Republican candidate, by 49 percent
to 39 percent among 1,056 registered voters."

Now, however did that election turn out?  Please explain how
valuable polls are 9 months before an election? 

[Hawkowl]

25. Truman would be better analogy

In the past 40 years, when a rethuglican is leading in the polls, he wins. Period. When the dem leads, he often fades and loses. I think after the last couple of elections we know why. Vote theft and systemic voter caging.

Our only hope is the most massive turnout this country has ever seen. Dean's fifty state strategy will be put to the test. I think we are already seeing some of the fruits of his labor with the turnout in the primary. If we have a turnout that merely replicates 2004's record turnout, we will lose again by theft and deception.

[bigscott]

15. My fondest wish

is for all the various factions on this board (NOT that it reflects the populace in general but still...) can actually come together and support whoever is the nominee. I don't need to be lectured about who is right and who is wrong on whatever topic. All I know is that 4 or 8 more years of a Pub in the WH will ruin this country - we are pretty damn close as it is.

And please remember, all 435 seats in the house and 34 Senate seats are up for grabs. If you dont want to vote for BOH or HRC, PLEASE remember how close some of the house and senate elections were in 2006. YOUR VOTE COUNTS, no matter what some here believe.

Turnout is at a record high in every primary so far - this is good for us!! Unless we stay home to "protest" our candidate not getting the nomination. Time to be responsible and at LEAST get some of those down-ticket Dems elected!

Peace:hippie:

[Hawkowl]

18. No shit.

All those dems who think this next election is going to be a cakewalk.....Wake the fuck up! We will have to work harder than absolutely ever, EVER! to get the first black or woman elected. 21st century, sea change, and enthusiastic voters aside. We must outwork, out fight the rethuglican nominee at every level.

Youth and skill usually lose out to old age and treachery. Two things scare the beejeezus out of me. One the level of hatred towards HRC and her ability to mobilize the OPPOSITION. The Clintons may, or may not, be popular. All I remember is that Bill wouldn't have been elected if Ross Perot hadn't been in the race. In order to get elected HRC will need those dems that don't like her to close ranks and defend her as if their lives depend upon it--because it will be true.

Second, even scarier, yes, Obama may inspire some people, like JFK, RFK and MLK, but their victories were Pyrrhic victories. They were all cut down before they could affect the needed change. Obama if he is the nominee, will need everyone's support, extraordinary security, and a good deal of divine luck to get elected.

This election will not be fun. It will not be easy.

[ScreamingMeemie]

24. Oh no...apparently there's an "it" factor...that the majority of independents

don't see. I wish some of these sheep, yes there are a ton of fucking sheep in the dem party, would see that what they think is not what the rest of the nation thinks.

[jenmito]

23. Your polls in the head to heads show Obama doing better than Hillary against McCain.

And that was before the Kennedy endorsements.

[cooolandrew]

26. One person to prove the polls wrong time and agiain is Barack, especially in SC.

[Jed Dilligan]

28. Please post the MOE for each poll if available

These numbers don't mean anything without the margin of error.

[rinsd]

29. You can check the MOEs via those links (most are around 3)