A polite discussion of the mathematical realities of the nomination

[Dookus]

I've seen a number of threads in which people assert that there will be a brokered convention, or that Dennis Kucinich could still secure the nomination. Neither will occur. Here are the numbers:

Kerry has 1,557 delegates. He needs 2,162 to secure the nomination. He needs 605 more delegates.

Dennis Kucinich has 18 delegates. Therefore, he needs 2,144 delegates to secure the nomination.

However, there are only 1,971 delegates left to be won. DK would need 108% of the remaining delegates - a mathematical impossibility.

Kerry needs only to win 31% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination on the first vote. He will do so handily.

SO... there *IS* a mathematical possibility that Kerry will not have 2162 delegates at the convention, but there's no evidence whatsoever to indicate he will not do that. In fact, he's likely to win greater than 90% of the remaining delegates.

There is NO way Dennis Kucinich or Al Sharpton could secure the nomination before the convention.

[Maat]

1. No, but hopefully all of the original candidates will....

play a role in the Convention and in the administration. Hopefully. Except Lieberman. He badly needs to switch parties.

[dsc]

2. You are forgetting something

The delegates won by other people are free to vote any way they wish to after the first ballot. In the exceptionally unlikely event Kerry didn't win a first ballot, those delegates could unite for another candidate. Admittedly unlikely but not mathematicly impossible.

[Dookus]

3. which I freely admit in my original post

but as a gambler, I wouldn't take that bet.

Hoping against hope that some disaster befalls Kerry is not a sound political strategy.

[dsc]

4. It is this that I was referring to

However, there are only 1,971 delegates left to be won. DK would need 108% of the remaining delegates - a mathematical impossibility

[Dookus]

10. yes...

I admit that there is a scenario in which the first ballot doesn't go to Kerry. That scenario is not going to happen.

First off, Kerry won 69 more superdelegates today. He will win more.

Second, Clark and Edwards have already endorsed Kerry - their delegates will go to him. Between those delegates and the superdelegates, Kerry is bound to win the nomination.

I believe there is a 99.999% chance of him winning it on the first ballot. There is a 99.99999999% of him winning on a second ballot, if that were necessary.

[AntiCoup2K4]

5. At this point, the battle is for the agenda of the party

The DLC has their nominee. That doesn't mean they get to write the platform. In fact it should mean entirely the opposite. Kerry will emerge from Boston the nominee, for better or for worse, and it's worse as far as I'm concerned. But hopefully it will be with the crystal clear message that another 4 years of corporate fascist imperialism is simply unacceptable, regardless of what label it's wrapped in.

[Dookus]

6. Nonsense

the DLC didn't pick the candidates. The Democratic primary voters have done so, and done so overwhelmingly.

It is those people who will write the platform. Kucinich, right now, has less than half of one percent of the delegates. That will not give him huge pull in writing the platform.

Furthermore, the platform is essentially meaningless. It's a position paper that gets fought over, approved, then put in a filing cabinet. You will NOT see a sharp-left turn taken in this year's platform.

[jsw_81]

13. The platform is silly

Nobody even reads it anymore.

[BruinAlum]

7. Yes, it is a foregone conclusion, and that is why Edwards dropped out.

And speaking of Edwards, he made a most magnificent and magnanomous speech, I might add.

[Monte Carlo]

8. But Al has to win!

He just has to!

[Dookus]

9. well...

we can still pray for a meteorite that wipes out every building except the Four Seasons hotel :)

[rucky]

11. Has ANYBODY Said DK or AS Could Win since Super Tues?

..much less "a number of people". OR are these threads you're referring to from 2-3-4 weeks ago? And why do you care how the rest of the primary goes, anyways?

[MurikanDemocrat]

12. More the inverse, that Kerry is not necessarily going to be the nominee

so we are all supposed to pretend that there are "others" that still have a chance to overtake him. And yes, recently - like yesterday and today. And the brokered convention crowd, that insist this is a real possibility - not to be confused with those who have not had their primaries yet and have vaid reasons for wanting to see other candidates gain additional delgates.

[Dookus]

14. Yes

a number of people have. In the last few days. Why I care seems obvious - I want to start beating Bush.