NPR just reported that Kerry loses advantage over Bush in survey

[AP]

of voter opinions on the issue of national security when voters are told that he voted against the death penatly for terrorists, and on jobs when voters are told that he has voted to raise taxes.

They said that Bush beats Kerry when Bush attacks Kerry, so we can expect Bush to attack Kerry.

(Incidentally, this story was insipid.)

[janx]

1. Was the Nader factor included in this?

I was only able to hear the very first part of it this morning. Was this only Buxh* versus Kerry, or did they include Nader in the mix?

[AP]

6. The said that people are firmly in one of two camps, with very little

movement.

They said they presented each side's best arguments to supporters on the other side to see what could break them. The only two they reported on were the two above -- Kerry supporters going with Bush once presented with those two arguments.

They didn't cite any arguments that got Bush people to go over to Kerry. Obviously, that doesn't mean they didn't find fault lines. However, if they did find anything, they didn't report on it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. So the drone has started huh?

They will try to convince us that we don't want Kerry

[janx]

4. Who will?

?

[redqueen]

3. Same story I posted about n/t

[jmowreader]

5. Uhh...

Tell the voters about Bunnypants' actions on 9/11 and see how they vote.

Tell the voters about Colin Powell's flip-flops on Iraq and see how they vote.

When Bush starts screaming, "It's politics, it's politics," come back with, "yeah, but is it true?" And when the dumb-ass says, "no, it's not true," immediately respond with the proof--in the form of video or reading of his transcribed words--then look George in the face and ask him, "Mr. pResident, when will you stop lying?"

Kerry will beat bush when Kerry attacks bush, so attacking bush is the only prudent course of action.

Even the morans will have to agree he's no good.

[sangh0]

7. One problem with theory

It assumes that Kerry won't be hitting back. Did they ask what happens when Bush*'s AWOL gets documented? Did they what happens if the Plame investigation shows that high-level Bush* figures are the leakers?

[AP]

10. As I said above, what they left out was whether any of the anti-Bush

arguments by Kerry succeeded in breaking Bush's grip on supporters.

[Rose Siding]

8. According to a Brookings Inst forum in Oct,

repubs are favored by a margin of 20-40% over dems in polls on the issue of nat'l security.

By keeping 911 in the spotlight, wrong though it may be, bush wins on this issure.

[AP]

12. I've used the "home field" analogy to explain this phenomenon.

The way to win an election is to play on home field -- you convince voters that your strong issues are the most important issues, and then you don't give any room for the other side to pretend their strong issues are the most important.

If people think national security is the most important issue, Dems are going to have a hard time winning even if the candidate is someone who seems like they've got the naitonal security issue down.

Dems win on middle class opportunity, hope and optimism.

Just look at Kennedy-Nixon. That was the tightest race before 2000. How did Dems win it? By giving not quarter on national security (Kennedy presented himself as a bigger anti-communist than Nixon, although he wasn't), and then convincing Americans that what really mattered was looking after the working person, and looking towards the future (and Nixon was actually pretty good on worker's issues -- however, it wasn't a strength for his party, so it didn't really matter).

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[diplomats]

16. That would not be accurate today

a lot has changed since October. BTW, I saw that poll on http://www.pollingreport.com

Bush is ahead of Kerry 47-45, which is within the margin of error. Yet Bush only gets 36 percent of the independent vote to Kerry's 45. Josh Marshall mentioned something in a post that we should keep in mind: An incumbent's numbers tend to be what he polls, meaning the undecideds go with the challenger. That 36 percent among indys is horrible news for Bush. If he loses them by 9 points, he's done. Remember, Gore won indys by just 2 points in 2000. I also suspect they oversampled Repukes in this poll because it's liely voters.

[fob]

9. So basically they gave the go-ahead for official push-polling?

Here's my question I would like verified then;
If the vote were today, would you vote for a brain-dead, alleged-former alcoholic who has not undergone any actual program or counseling, minimum 3 times arrested, who supports a constitutional amendment to discriminate, paid for an abortion for his then 15 year old girlfriend, continues to borrow money in your name that will have to be paid back by the next 3-5 generations but may also become such a burden as to banrupt and default the entire country, who was in charge but on vacation while 3,000 Americans were killed and cites a lack of critical thinking within his own administration for being unable of doing anything about it, who blames EVERYONE but himself, including YOU for his problems - repugnican george bush* or Democrat John Kerry who voted for the Deficit Reduction Budget Act that spurred unprecedented growth during the 90's?

[sadiesworld]

11. Clark for VP.

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. Yup. A Heavy Medal ticket becomes bullet proof.

National Security is the one and only issue Bush really wants to run on. Wesley Clark is the only Democrat who would significantly improve public perceptions of Democrats ability to manage our Security. Clark proved much more popular in primary voting than either Gephardt or Graham, and their performance isn't used against them when pundits play the VP sweeps game.

Edwards never got negative press. Never. He got almost nonstop positive press after Iowa. Yet Clark showed overall comparable strength to Edwards. I don't know if Edwards hurt himself on Super Tuesday, but anyone looking at that objectively would say that he should have. Edwards did not win a single race. He was only competitive in one, Georgia in the south, and Kerry still beat him there. This is after the field was cleared for Edwards with only also Sharpton and Kucinich actively campaigning. As the only Non Kerry candidate being taken seriously by the media, Edwards was not able to pull together a significant anti Kerry vote anywhere outside the South.

Give Clark the VP slot, let him concentrate on Veterans and Americans concerned about Security, and Kerry wins.

[BabsSong]

14. One stat they may not like

In the last few weeks when voters were asked what their top concerns were, national security/terrorism was not the top several concerns. BUT even more so (and this should make Bush puke), when it came to the Midwest where this election is going to be won or lost, this national security/terrorism was dead LAST of their concerns. It got like 3% of the vote. I lived there for years. To them New York and the coasts are a zillion miles away. The people in this country have basically forgot about the scare bullcrap swirling around after 9/11 but they have doubly so forgotten it in the midwest. Their terror is the lost jobs with more promised to go overseas!!!

[sandnsea]

17. No life without possibility of parole??

Do people support a yes vote on a bill that *only* allows for the death penalty? For anybody? I doubt it.

Of course he voted for tax increases. There probably isn't anybody in Congress who hasn't.

These arguments assume people aren't able to think. Iowa proved to me that people are able to think and not just believe whatever crap that comes out of the teevee. They'll see through these smear campaigns.

[redqueen]

18. In the same piece the pollster asserted

that indepdendents as a group are not swayed by ideology and are mostly dependent on the news; oh and they're volatile.

So whomever GE, Viacom, etc. decide to favor, they'll vote for. Lately the media hs been mean to bush. Will it continue? We'll see!

[rock]

19. The media (pew!) is gonna insist that this is a horse race

but bushsucks* is going down worse than his dad.

[Atlant]

20. "But, but, but *HE'S ELECTBALE*!!!!" (NT)

And everyone was so sure that Mr. Electable was the "safe"
candidate, just because the media told them so.

Surprise!

Atlant