Can we finally put the "Bradley effect" to rest with Obama?

[Alhena]

Hillary supporter Susan Estrich wrote a column recently in which she tried to scare Democrats into thinking that Obama's national poll numbers against McCain weren't real because white voters will supposedly lie to pollsters about voting for black candidates, i.e. the alleged "Bradley effect."

Well, it looks like Obama actually *exceeded* his poll numbers in Virginia and Maryland, including among white voters. And he's done this many times in this campaign. So hopefully we won't have to hear about the "Bradley effect" any more from Hillary supporters.

[jackson_dem]

1. Yes. The Bradley Effect: 1982-2006

RIP

Harold Ford is actually the first major case where it didn't come into play. Initially it looked like it was a factor in New Hampshire but everything since then has proven that isn't the case. There was just a surge in female support for Hill overnight in New Hampshire, not a bunch of white defections from Obama.

[EffieBlack]

6. FINALLY!

We found a point of agreement.

:toast:

[jackson_dem]

10. Wow!

I am shocked. :D :toast:

[goldcanyonaz]

2. It will be brought back up if the election doesn't go with him in the GE if he is the nominee.

[EffieBlack]

7. Because, if he loses, he'd be the first person ever to lose a presidential race

and since he's black, it would have to have been because of his skin color, not for any other reason.

:sarcasm:

[jackson_dem]

11. It would be bull if that happens

I have posted the polls for the "new" candidate against the universally known candidate in 2000 and 2004. Bush was leading Gore by 11 at this time in 2000, Kerry led Bush by 8. Obama's numbers will drop just like Bush and Kerry's did as he gets attacked by the other party for months. It would be a shame if that is blamed on race, not the natural thing that happens when a "new" candidate gets attacked and sees his negatives rise. Now if Obama has a 10 point lead before election day and loses then it would be legitimate to talk about whether the Bradley Effect came into play, but I don't anticipate it happening. So many states have voted so far and the only one where there was a big discrepancy was in New Hampshire and we know that was because of females flocking to Hillary, not white defections from Obama. In fact, Obama actually did better among whites in South Carolina than the polls showed. He was as low as 10% and 11% with whites in some SC polls. He got 24% when people voted.

[jasmine621]

3. Not until the GE is over. That is when it will really show up. nt

[goldcanyonaz]

4. Hillary supporters? Many people crying Bradley effect were Obama supporters after New Hampshire.

[Kahuna]

5. Poor Pat Buchannan. He's really been trying to push that meme hard..

:rofl:

[EffieBlack]

8. He's scared to death

[MADem]

9. Not until the General Election. And that's the truth.

The Democratic Party isn't picking our nominee in these contests. It's Dems, Indys and crossover Republicans who are making the choice. And we don't know how many of those Indy's and crossover GOPers are going to STAY with us.

Mischief isn't unheard of in these instances.

[Rowdyboy]

12. Harold Ford's senate race in Tennessee pretty much sank the "Bradley Effect"

Its 30 years out of date. America has moved on.