I'm hoping for Hillary to win, but I can't imagine a "good" way for that to happen.

[Silent3]

I can't see Obama being derailed at this point by anything short of a scandal, a lot of dirt being uncovered, or an enormous gaffe. (I also worry about assassination by some racist nut case.)

It's hard to imagine any positive case for Hillary building up to a level where it's powerful enough to overcome Obama's momentum. Nor can I imagine any of the current negative memes against Obama -- inexperience, empty hope, cult of personality -- making much of a dent any more. Although I favor Hillary myself, I think Obama is likely to be a good President too, and think many of his critics exaggerate his faults.

The only scenarios I can imagine that would bring Obama down would be very dispiriting to many of the people Obama has energized. There are a lot of people voting now who haven't even bothered voting before. There are a lot of young people and black people finally feeling like their votes matter.

Can any of my fellow Hillary supporters describe a scenario where Hillary manages to get back into this race and win it, where Obama isn't badly hurt, but perhaps goes on to be VP and/or President himself someday? Where many of the people energized by Obama, taking a fresh look at the Democratic party, don't walk away in disgust feeling cheated that "the system" wouldn't let Obama win? (I can imagine all of the conspiracy theories now!)

[Captain Hilts]

1. Winning more big states. nt

[beachmom]

6. Not just that. She needs to win the big 3 by at least 55% if not 60%.

Otherwise, we're back to a near tie, with Obama a few ahead. That is what I have read in all the careful delegate count analysis.

[Silent3]

7. But can she win the big states left by big enough a margin anymore?

If current trends continue, even if she manages to hold her leads in TX and OH an PA, proportional delegates could mean winning doesn't gain her enough ground. If Hillary gets close enough that the superdelegates are what make the difference, and the superdelegates vote against the regular delegate results to put her over the top, a lot of hard feelings could result, the kind of situation that I'd be hoping not to see.

[still_one]

2. I am an Obama supporter, and I am not sure I see a good way for the convention to end

It is still extremely close, and the real problems will start when MI and FL want to seat their delegates

There is a potential where the whole party can go up in flames depending how MI and FL are handled

[spartan61]

8. I was just listening to Jack Cafferty.

One of the e-mails he read said that Clinton and Obama should each get half of the Super Delegates and each should get half of the delegates from MI and FL. Sounds like a fair compromise to me. That way, the peoples' votes would still count. No one would have an advantage over the other.

[still_one]

11. I have no problem with that, but I don't think MI and FL would necessarily agree to it

For MI and FL it effectively means the votes didn't really count. In other words, if you divided the delegates from the respective states in 1/2 and gave each to the respective candidates, that is effectively not counting their votes

The super delegates shouldn't have even been created, but since they are there already, they should represent how their constiuents voted in the primary in my view

[Deja Q]

3. Well, when will we worry about sexist nutcases aimin' for Hillary?

:eyes:

Does the fact some jerkwads would want to kill people stop them from running?

Uh, no?

[Silent3]

10. Um... I think you're arguing against something I didn't say.

I never suggested anything against Obama running because he might be assassinated, nor would I ever suggest that Hillary is any safer in that regard. I saw her in person here in NH (as I saw Edwards and Obama too) and the very lax security had me worried for Hillary as well.

[skipos]

4. I am no Clinton fan, but she would need to win the rest of the states with @55-60%

of the vote to beat Obama in pledged delegates. You will note that winning with that margin is not very easy for her. She needs to spend less money on Mark Penn and focus groups and more money on boots on the ground.

[liberalnurse]

5. For some mystical reason or something....

I feel the tide will turn on March 4th. I just do; and it will be a knee dropper for Obama.

[Joe the Revelator]

16. Its called wishful thinking...

nt

[liberalnurse]

17. Go ahead and book mark this thread.

You heard it from me first. O8) Nursing intuition.

[Yael]

9. Numerically, she needs to hit about 60% to Obama's 40%

in Texas and Ohio to stay in the game.

The split delegate thing can really work against the underdog as opposed to winner take all states.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

12. how long have you been paying attention to politics?.. if you're young stick around kid....

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

[Silent3]

15. I never said it was over...

What I said was that I didn't see a likely way for things to change in Hillary's favor that didn't have a big downside for the party.

[KoKo]

13. Don't Count "The Dead OUt" until the Fire has Burned them or the Earth Turns them to Dust!

It ain't over until the "Fat Lady Sings." :shrug:

[Bucky]

14. I'm for Obama, but if she reverses his mo; if she clobbers in Texas, Ohio, & PA....

All the win-by-superdelegates scenarios have one fatal flaw in them: they expect politicians--and Democratic politicians at that--to show backbone in the face of public scrutiny. Wake me after that happens, cause I'll've fainted away from the shock.

I'm trusting democracy and the Democracy. I'm saying whoever walks into the convention with momentum, not whoever walks in there with a slightly higher nose-count, will get nominated.