Any thoughts on the most recent polls? (Longish post)

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

The ones showing Bush back on top.

First comment. There is a natural tendency when a poll has a result that is NOT a desired outcome, to dismiss the poll or its source as inaccurate. I'm seeing that here now, and it's an automatic response at RW places like freerepublic. I feel like if we are to take encouragement from the recent polls showing shrub behind, then we certainly can't ignore results from the same sources like NYT because we don't like what they are saying. (Although I do agree that 7% Nader did raise my eyebrows.)

The way I look at these polls is in the aggregate. In other words, the recent bolus of polls mostly showed Kerry up by a handful of % up to 10%, with a few showing about even. To me, if you consider the polls taken as a group as "more accurate" then each individual one (i.e. cancelling the "error" from the individual smaller sample sizes), these polls appeared to "show" that Kerry had achieved a slight to moderate edge.

The dynamic made sense--Bush stock declining due to credibility issue from David Kay/WMD, ongoing Iraq quagmire, sucky SOTU speech, nonstop Dem coverage with a strong candidate group, unusually unified Dem party and rapid convergence around a nominee.

We still have to see more polls coming up. But if they show the same thing, namely a significant reversal in favor of Bush (several percent down to slightly or several percent up is a significant change if accurate), what dynamic could have caused this? The significant recent events are the Spain bombing/election, Haiti coup, gay marriage, The Thrashin' of Christ, and, lastly, the first wave of Bush ads.

I guess my view is, if just by showing these lame ads the Bush campaign can get this much mileage (assuming it is real), then I really, really fear for our republic.

Don't get me wrong--I may find some of this depressing but will NEVER be discouraged into inaction, not voting or contributing etc. We are way past that point. Even if the bums try some unprecedented stunt like martial law then we still all must take action, it will just be different action.

[lancdem]

1. I don't think it would JUST be the ads

but could be due to an all-out WH offensive against Kerry. Keep in mind this would've been the case no matter who our nominee turned out to be. If Kerry can stay close to Bush through this flurry, he should emerge OK.

[aintitfunny]

2. There will be thousands

of polls over the course of the next 7 months. I try not to even pay too much attention, so much can happen. Can't help but get a little thrill, however, on positive poll results for Kerry and discouraged when they go the other way. This is going to be an ugly race. We are up against the masters of campaign nastiness ugliness - the Willie Horton crowd.

We have to keep the momemtum moving, without losing the complete interest of middle america. This is what worries me most. We are starting early, already the Bushies are directing their ads against Kerry directly. People will lose interest.

Since they have no positive issues or history to run on, The BA only has negativity and they will continue to put it out there. Distortions and innuendo. Outright lies and nasty rumors. We must counter it with the truth, the unvarnished truth. And keep pointing out that Bush has no accomplishments to stand on. Surviving 9-11 is not really an accomplishment, now is it.

I have hope, but I know it ain't even close to over yet. They will get some advancement through the ad campaigns. We will advance as more and more people own up to their dissatisfaction with the direction this country is going. It is going to be a long campaign, but we are in it to win. There is too much at stake.

[fujiyama]

3. I don't think it's the ads...

or the Bush offense. It's quite simply the bombing in Spain and the pounding in the media claiming that Spain is capitulating to the terrorists by electing a left wing party. We are also seeing that blurring taking place between the war on terror and the war on Iraq. This is a misconception that will be claimed repeatedly, and we know it is false.

I still think the nation is still mostly split, and I still believe that few of the Gore supporters and voters last time will vote for Bush. However, there is still a risk of many people supporting Bush because he is seen as being strong on terror.

[sandnsea]

4. 60-70% share Bush's values

Same number say Bush "cares about me". And this poll is supposed to be a fair representation of Americans? Don't think so.