PPP Poll: Obama Surging in Ohio - Clinton's lead cut to four points (50%-46%)

[Pirate Smile]

PPP Poll: Obama Surging in Ohio

"Momentum is rapidly swinging Barack Obama's way in Ohio," according to a new Public Policy Polling survey.

Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Obama has been cut to four points, 50% to 46%. Just a couple weeks ago Clinton held a lead over 20 points in some polls.

Key factor: "Obama is benefiting from the decided nature of the Republican contest. That's increasing the number of Republicans and independents who plan to cast their ballots in the Democratic primary next week, and Obama leads those groups 80% to 13% and 64% to 33% respectively. Clinton actually has a 56% to 40% edge among self identified Democrats."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/25/ppp_poll_obama_surging_in_ohio.html

PDF of polling info - http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Ohio_Release_022508.pdf

edit to add - PPP will have new Texas primary numbers tomorrow and SUSA will have a new Texas poll out tonight.


edit to add II -

"Poll: Obama leads nationally

Posted: Monday, February 25, 2008 2:56 PM by Domenico Montanaro

Filed Under: 2008, Clinton, Obama, Polls
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Obama leads Clinton 51%-39% nationally, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll. McCain leads Huckabee 61%-23%.

In the last poll, conducted Feb. 8-10, Obama and Clinton were in a statistical tie with Obama ahead 47%-44%.

This poll was conducted Feb. 21-24 and has a margin of error of +/- 2% overall and +/- 3% with registered voters."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/25/700522.aspx

[Coexist]

1. the poll I am waiting for is the new Texas SUSA poll to be released

at 11:00 p.m. tonight.

[Pirate Smile]

2. Me too.

[HeraldSquare212]

5. It seems to me the Clinton campaign has written off Texas already.

They're now saying they can't lose both TX and OH, instead of saying they have to win both. And, of course, Hillary's comment about how she didn't have to win TX, it'd be nice but it's not a state that goes for Dems in Nov. I take all that as meaning their polling shows it as a loss.

[Pirate Smile]

10. I agree but they already made their statements about both Texas AND Ohio being must wins for them.

It is too late to try to wiggle out of that now.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

11. Hillary's delusional . . .

and she won't be content until she takes down the entire
Democratic party with her.  How pathetic!

GObama!

[SammyWinstonJack]

22. Ah geez!

:boring: How childish!

[Why Syzygy]

64. Yeah. She sure was quick to blow of Texas.

Which is more than fine with me. I knew she would never make it here. You can't show up in this state talking Sh*t about cattle and hats. What does she think this is? A black church?

[MadBadger]

3. That 56-40 number is sure to ruffle the feathers of some here...lol

[democrattotheend]

12. Yeah I was thinking that

I don't get the people who are riled up about Obama attracting crossover and especially independent support. Only 40% of Americans consider themselves Democrats, so we need support from independents to win a general. I know there are some Republicans who are voting for Obama because their primary is settled and they see Obama as the lesser of two evils, and I can understand why Clinton supporters are upset about that. But self-identified Republicans have not made up a significant amount of voters in our primaries, and I see no reason to resent Obama's support from independents, most of whom are likely to vote for him in the fall.

[Occam Bandage]

17. I like that number. Obama will get Hillary's voters in November almost automatically;

Self-ID'd Democrats usually vote Democratic. However, he enjoys great support among independents and moderate Republicans, while Hillary does not. That bodes very well for November.

[HeraldSquare212]

4. Well, that's the one showing him closest so far.

[ORDem]

6. RCP average is about 8% in HRC's favor. Certainly down, but I

don't think these polls are able to yet take into account the last debate nor Hillary's latest negative antics.

:dem:

[NJSecularist]

7. Those are encouraging numbers

But Obama needs to improve his standing among Democrats or he will be slaughtered in Ohio in the general election.

[backscatter712]

19. Agreed.

Obama and his supporters need to keep working like they're 30 points behind.

Still, a four point spread puts Clinton way short of catch-up territory.

She needs landslides in Ohio and Texas, like 25-30 point landslides, just to catch up. This is her last chance. If she can't get those landslides, if she loses or just squeaks by in even one of them, she's done. She won't be able to get enough delegates to win.

[JimGinPA]

8. Fat Lady Clearing Her Throat...

:applause:

[NDambi]

40. La la la la laaaaaaaaaaa

[skipos]

9. Time to move the firewall to Puerto Rico! nt

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

15. Good one skipos. . .

but you're not too far off.  Hillary's strategy is obvious:
she's going to stay in this race until she has exacted enough
damage on Obama to assure a McCain victory.  And then, of
course, she will ride to the rescue as the savior of the party
in 2012.

If anyone here falls for this crapola, I've got a bridge to
sell you.

[caligirl]

28. Lets hope that wall isn't in Denver.

[Tatiana]

29. And hopefully drown it in the Atlantic. n/t

[Khaotic]

49. These states don't count ...

:sarcasm:

The Hillary firewall will stand firm on May 4!

Guam will make all the difference!!!!



Chamorros for Hillary ... No Sleep Till Guam!!!!!

:sarcasm:

[Drunken Irishman]

13. It's over for her.

[Robbins]

20. Polls

all of them suggest her lead Is shrinking as time goes on.Her lead has gone from 20-25 points to
based on what poll you want to go by 4-11.This Is not good for her.Look at Texas where they are basiclly tied.March 4 could be a bad night for hillary.

[buff2]

31. Yeah.......no use in voting for her is there?

You haters are sooooo fucked up.

[JackORoses]

51. not really, no.

it's like keeping someone alive on life support even though they are brain-dead

[Drunken Irishman]

61. People can vote for her, but I'm realist. I can say the same for Nader...he won't win.

It's over for him, but it doesn't mean people shouldn't vote for him.

[cottonseed]

14. Thanks for keeping focus.

There's so much garbage going on in this campaign lately (at least on the boards), it's easy to get away from the big picture.

[Coexist]

16. People - may I say something, please?

I support Barack Obama - but in which part of "gaining on" do you see "leading"?

All these recent polls still show Senator Clinton raking in half the vote. Sometimes y'all confuse me.

[Occam Bandage]

18. He's already *in* the lead. These are the last meaningful states she can win. If they split evenly,

he wins the nomination handily.

[LadyVT]

21. pollster.com latest results

Pollster Dates N/Pop Clinton Obama Undecided
American Research Group 2/23-24/08 600 LV 49 39 8
University of Cincinnati 2/21-24/08 529 LV 47 39 4

But all these polls are meaningless when they don't list the margin of error. If it's 10 points, for instance, (meaning the "real" result of the poll could be 10 points in either direction) then we know nothing at all.

[peace13]

23. If he's not ahead now he will be when I finish my canvassing

this afternoon! Go Ohio! Go Obama! Peace, kIm

[yourguide]

38. you rule!

thanks!

[beezlebum]

24. looks like

the "shame on you" finger wagging is backfiring.

yet again.

[stillcool]

25. Boomerang!!

again.

[JVS]

26. I hope she suffers a humiliating loss

[Name removed]

41. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JVS]

44. It's a primary. I can support any side of it I want.

[speedoo]

27. Wasn't PPP one of the most accurate late Wisconsin polls?

If not THE most accurate?

[Yurem2008]

39. it sure was, it had Obama up by 13 points

[buff2]

30. That is total BULLSHIT

Hillary is 11 points ahead of Obama. I live here,I know the polls.I am so damn sick of the Obama worshiping,I'll be glad when this is over. I HOPE HE LOSES.

[NJSecularist]

32. Public Policy Polling predicted Wisconsin the best: Obama: 53, Hillary: 40

I'm inclined to believe a professional operation like Public Polling Policy more than you.

[cali]

33. it's a poll. it's just another poll. according to the polls he's

anywhere from 4 to 11 points back. Odds are, given the history of this race, he'll be tied or ahead by next week. And that you live in OH has nothing to do with how the state is going to vote. It's over. She's already lost. If the polls continue this trend, I wouldn't be at all surprised if she drops out before next Tuesday. Why would she want to suffer a humiliating defeat in TX and OH?

[buff2]

36. I'll never vote for him

Fucking phoney piece of shit.

[RiverStone]

42. Then if he is the nominee...

You will be aiding the war mongering puke bastards.

[buff2]

43. I will stay home

it's as simple as that.

[RiverStone]

46. The why the fuck post here anymore?

Your right to sit on your ass.

But keep it to yourself.

Many, many here and elsewhere have lots of voting and work to do.

[buff2]

50. I am a Democrat,that's why I post here

And I'll vote for who ever I damn well please. YOU don't tell me not to post here. YOU don't have that right,dearie.

"but keep it to yourself". Why are you so against FREEDOM OF SPEECH???

[RiverStone]

53. You are a not much of a Democrat

We get you don't like Obama - but if you think McCain is on the same playing field as him - then I doubt you care much about the party.

I am a strong Obama supporter, but Hillary would get my vote because the alternative of Shrub 3 is such a compelling negative. I will support our party's Democratic nominee - you can't say the same!

Tell me how strong a Democrat you are while you are sitting on your lazy ass not voting for our party's nominee in the fall.

Oh yea, some Democrat!

[buff2]

56. I might be dead by then.... sitting on my ass in an urn......

who knows? :smoke: :beer:

[RiverStone]

57. Better voting then dead!

Who knows, you might surprise yourself...:hi:

[buff2]

58. Hey........I will vote for whoever the nominee is

I'm just having a bad day today. I shouldn't take out my frustrations on anyone here or their candidate. I am sorry. :hi: :hug:

[RiverStone]

59. No worries - hope you have a much better day tomorrow!

Glad your hanging in there buff2 - we need you.

peace bro ~:)

[buff2]

60. Thanks,Riverstone

I'm going to get off here. I've said too much already. I wish I could delete what I posted,but it's too late. I'm having some problems that have nothing to do with politics. I just get upset with all the Hillary bashing,that's all. I thought it was over years ago....I thought the repukes were bashing her way too much and it hurts to see people in my party doing it too. I feel so sorry for her and Bill.They have been through hell and back but are still willing to help us.Have a great evening! I'll be back later.... :hi:

[RiverStone]

63. We need Hillary and her supporters...

If Obama is the nominee, we will need to reunify the party and DU.

I have never been a "Hillary hater" and it saddens me that some folks here want to proceed with a scorched earth policy. When the dust settles, I'd love to see Hillary as the next Secretary of State, Senate Leader, or even VP candidate (though I'd be surprised if that got worked out).

Once we have a common enemy, the Clinton bashing will end and we will focus on the battle with the pukes this fall. I was a strong supporter of Bill and still greatly admire the work he did in the presidency. I just hope for the good of the party - we do not have a protracted and bloody battle all the way to the convention. We all already have enough battle fatigue.

Have a good evening yourself - glad we ended our debate on a positive note!

And as an aside buff2, best wishes with that other (not political stuff) - hope is gets a lot easier and things feel more in balance soon.

peace out~:)

[Why Syzygy]

66. Hillary is the one with the scorched earth policy.

Some peeps are just fire fighters. Just sayin.

I totally support her for a cabinet position, if she puts away her venom.

[Khaotic]

62. Here's your ball ... go home

[cali]

45. so what? and keep talking that way and

you won't be posting here either. I won't sink to your level, but I don't think too well of your candidate either. I would have voted for her had she been the nominee because I'm not a selfish piece of work who thinks it's all about me. Fortunately, I won't have to undertake that onerous task.

[buff2]

34. Yeah,right

What I watch on the local news is just a figment of my imagination. :eyes:

[JackORoses]

52. "I HOPE HE LOSES." This is the only kind of hope a Hillarite can hold, apparently.

[yourguide]

35. I bet after texas and ohio

I wont see many more posts listed as

name deleted or ignored any more. thank god, it cant come soon enough.

[thevoiceofreason]

37. And meanwhile, down in Texas

We are on pace to have 70-80% of the number of folks who voted in our 2004 democratic primary . . .

VOTE IN EARLY VOTING

Typically in Texas, early voting will equal 10-20% of the total vote. Hang on everyone, it's about to get really interesting.

[Khaotic]

47. Wisconsin Déjà vu!!!!

Aren't these the kind of polls we were seeing out of Wisconsin about a week out of their primary?

[tishaLA]

48. To me, the most shocking part of this....

is that Clinton got to 50% in the poll. Maybe I'm wrong, but doesn't she almost always poll below 50%, even in these binary polls? It seems she reaches ~47-48% and tops out.

[Unsane]

54. This was likely taken before Clinton started circulating the smear photo.

[Deep13]

55. It doesn't say how the survey was done.

Internet? Telephone? What? From where were the samples taken?

[Why Syzygy]

65. I will be so glad when she knows it's over. So glad. n/t

[my3boyz]

67. She knows the writing is on the wall! That is why she came out squealing like a lunatic.

I have tried to be neutral towards Hillary. I did not dislike her, I just preferred Barack. Now I really dislike her!