Summary of 7 Local Texas Papers: Obama surge continues

[grantcart]

Summary
1) Multiple Polls show Clinton losing ground Obama winning Texas
2) Michelle Stumps in Galveston
3) African-American Districts have extra delegate power
4) Heavy Turnout Helping Obama- Corpus Christi
5) Heavy Turnout From Obama supporters Dallas
6 )Heavy Democratic Voting in El Paso
7) Delegate Distribution Heavily Favors Obama: Caucuses could be Chaotic


http://blogs.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/02/the_latest_polls_is_obama_gain.html
1)Three new Texas polls out today, and Barack Obama is ahead of Hillary Clinton in two of them.
A CNN poll shows Obama ahead, 50 percent to 46 percent. An American Research Group survey showed the Illinois senator at an identical 50 percent but his rival from New York a bit lower, at 42 percent. The third poll, a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted on Feb. 24, showed the former First Lady clinging to a lead of 46 percent to 45 percent.
While the bottom lines vary, the trend lines agree: Clinton is losing ground.
Rasmussen polls have shown a continuing decline in Clinton's performance, from a 16 point lead two weeks ago to 3 points a week ago to 1 point yesterday. ARG showed a similar trend, with Obama moving from a 4 point advantage to an 8 point edge over the past two weeks. The CNN poll indicated that a 2-point Clinton lead had turned into a 4-point deficit.
Rasmussen 02/24 - 02/24 646 LV 46 45 Clinton +1.0
ARG* 02/23 - 02/24 600 LV 42 50 Obama +8.0
CNN 02/22 - 02/24 861 LV 46 50 Obama +4.0

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5569294.html
2) Michelle stumps in Galveston
GALVESTON — Michelle Obama showed that her rhetorical skills are as good as her husband's Monday as she delivered a stump speech saying Barack Obama will remove the barriers confronting average Americans.
Speaking to an audience of more than 900 that crowded into the historic Galveston Grand 1894 Opera House, Michelle Obama said her husband should be the Democratic presidential nominee because his humble background allows him to understand the obstacles confronting working Americans.
Former President Bill Clinton spoke in front of the Galveston County Courthouse on Wednesday before a crowd of about 300, saying the Texas and Ohio primaries next Tuesday could decide the party nominee.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/state/stories/022508dnpolblackvote.4071505.html
3) In Texas, black voters could be difference for Obama
Most of the delegates at stake in the March 4 primary are from state Senate districts with significant numbers of black residents, including state Sen. Rodney Ellis' district in Houston and Royce West's district in Dallas. Those districts receive a lot of delegates because of a formula derived from Democratic turnout in the 2004 presidential election and 2006 governor's race



http://www.caller.com/news/2008/feb/25/area-early-voters-double-2004-turnout/
4) HEAVEY TURNOUT HELPING OBAMA
CORPUS CHRISTI — With four days left to vote early in the March 4 primary, twice as many Nueces County voters have gone to the polls as compared to the same time frame in 2004, according to statistics from the Texas Secretary of State.
Astronomical turnout statewide is driven by the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination between U.S. senators Hillary Clinton, D-New York, and Barack Obama, D-Illinois. Texas is a deciding factor in who will get the nod, political analysts said.
Turnout in Nueces County hit a high water mark Friday, the same day Obama made a campaign stop here, with 1,168 Democrat voters going to the polls. Friday was also the busiest day for local Republicans with 292 ballots cast. More than 1,000 Democrats have gone to the polls each day since early voting started on February 19, every day except Sunday, which is traditionally a slow voting day, according to Nueces County Clerk statistics.
“God it’s high and I am looking at it every day,” said Texas A&M Corpus Christi political scientist Bob Bezdek. “If it continues like this, it will end up being a historic turnout. A close race always makes a difference. The Republican side is roughly a fourth of the Democratic turnout. If the Republican race was close they would be turning out also.”
While turnout is up locally, other urban areas are outpacing Nueces County, with Hidalgo County leading the pack with 8.9 percent of registered Democrats there turning out through Sunday, a jump from the 6.7 percent posted by the county in 2004, Haywood said.
But high turnout in South Texas, is not likely to offset the massive jumps in turnout in some of the state’s most populous urban areas such as Dallas County where 49,485 of 1,114,002 registered voters or nine times as many have gone to the polls as compared to the same time period in 2004. In Harris County five times as many voters, 66,756 of 1,804,641 have turned out and there is a similar pattern in Travis County, where four times as many, 36,890 of 541,315 have cast ballots.
What that means according to analysts including Bezdek and Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson is that Obama is likely to pull ahead of Clinton on March 4 and take Texas.
“It’s way up, but its up stronger in some places than in others,” Jillson said. “The overall benefit seems to be to Obama. Looking at the numbers by county, what those numbers show is that early turnout is up by big multiples in the urban parts of the state where Obama is strongest. It is up but up by less in the Valley where Clinton is counting on the Hispanic constituency.
“What that suggests is that Obama’s boxes are up more than Clinton’s boxes. I think that Obama is odds on favorite to win Texas and to capture the democratic nomination.”

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/local/stories/022608dnmetvoting.3c094e6.html
5) Early voters swarm in Texas; voting numbers on record pace
Six days into early voting – and with a week left – about 360,000 voters in the state's 15 largest counties have cast early or mail-in ballots in the 2008 Democratic primary, compared with 120,000 in the Republican primary.
"It's the intensity. The energy we're seeing," said Diana Broadus, election judge at one of Dallas County's busiest early-voting locations, in Oak Cliff.
"They are coming in ready to vote. They want to make sure their vote is going to count."
Both parties are seeing much higher turnout than four years ago – but it's the numbers in the Democratic primary that are turning heads.
There is a reaction against entrenched forces," he said. "The second part is this kind of Obama phenomenon – there is just no question that young people are just truly identifying with him, with his energy and even perhaps with his naiveté, and the freshness of his views. ... The tenor and tone of this campaign are very, very different."
http://www.elpasotimes.com/politics/ci_8341798
6) EL PASO EXPERIENCES HEAVY DEMOCRATIC VOTING
AUSTIN -- More than 15,700 El Paso County voters cast ballots in the first three days of early voting, county elections coordinator Javier Chacon said Friday.
That turnout is nearly twice what it was during the 2004 presidential primary contest, Chacon said Friday.
"The numbers are overwhelming," he said.
As Texas gets its first chance in decades to have a say in the Demo cratic presidential nomination, the race between U.S. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, as well as contentious local contests, are driving more voters in El Paso and statewide to early-voting stations for the March 4 primary.
Early voting began Tuesday and will end Friday. After just three days, more than 13,000 Democrats and more than 2,700 Republicans -- a total of 15,729 El Paso County voters -- had cast ballots, Chacon said.
http://www.texasobserver.org/article.php?aid=2689

7)DELEGATE DISTRIBUTION HEAVILY FAVORS OBAMA;
CAUCUSES COULD BE CHAOTIC

Another 126 garden-variety “primary-sourced” delegates will be decided March 4, but this delegate cache too is apportioned in an idiosyncratic fashion. Each of Texas’ 31 state senate districts is assigned a number of delegates based on the number of votes received by John Kerry in 2004 and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell in 2006. Senate districts that turned out the vote are rewarded with a greater number of delegates than those that sat on their duffs. At the extremes, the nearly Democrat-free Panhandle Senate District 31 has only two delegates at stake, while District 14, home to state Sen. Kirk Watson and liberal Travis County, has eight.


According to Ian Davis, coordinator of Texans for Obama, “This will be the largest voter turnout ever in the state of Texas. The county election aren’t prepared for this; the Texas Democratic Party isn’t ready for this. Nobody is ready for this.”
Consequently, the potential for caucus confusion or worse is significant. For starters, the March 4 precinct conventions can’t begin until the last regular precinct ballot is cast. With record turnout expected, long lines could delay the start of caucuses in some precincts by hours. In just one Harris County precinct, which presents an unusually long ballot this year, Harris County Democratic Party volunteer Leif Hatlen expects 2,000 primary voters. But heavy turnout won’t be the only hurdle to an efficient caucus. There’s also enormous complexity.
“It’s a Byzantine process,” said Glen Maxey, a former state representative from Austin and caucus expert.
Democrats are vague on the specifics of what irregularities might arise, but one potential problem area is the manner in which delegates are awarded to candidates in the precinct conventions. When voters arrive at the caucus they sign in with their name, address, voter ID number and presidential preference. They will then be checked against voter rolls to make sure they voted in the Democratic primary for that precinct. Then delegates are divvied up based on each candidate’s share of sign-in-sheet supporters. Even insiders are confused about the system’s nuances and potential loopholes.
“You can literally sign people in who aren’t there,” Davis told the Observer. “… It’s just ripe for abuse.”
Texas Democratic Party communications director Hector Nieto insists that only those who are present can be counted, but that message clearly hasn’t reached everyone.
Nieto said his office is training county chairs in the process, coordinating with the campaigns, and planning to deploy field staff statewide to monitor the caucuses. “We’re confident that we’ll have a smooth caucus process,” Nieto said.
But with more than 8,000 precincts in the state, it will be impossible to place independent monitors everywhere. Davis, of Texans for Obama, is encouraging Obama supporters to take video cameras to the polls. “I want to shine a big flashlight on this so nothing under the table happens,” he said.

[Cha]

1. Thank Goodness for

Heavy Turnout! Thanks grant..for this update. GObama Michelle!

[grantcart]

11. tks

[Tarheel_Dem]

2. thanks for all your hard work in keeping us abreast of what it looks

like down Texas way. I have to admit that is a very complex delegate system. i keep hearing that HRC has to win both Texas & Ohio by 15 pts. or better. What happens if she squeaks out a win in Ohio, but loses Texas?

[grantcart]

3. Texas is going very strong for Obama and delegate dist favors him

pls see this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4782802&mesg_id=4782802

[Tarheel_Dem]

6. dude....that is an excellent explanation...

thanks for all you hard work. My hat's off to you.

[Alhena]

4. K&R - great post

[Egnever]

5. Geez man thats some outstanding work ya did there.

[grantcart]

13. tks

[bigbrother05]

7. Thanks, also read the other post

The Texas 2 step, I went to the Obama headquarters here in San Antonio, to find out where we caucus.
It is a different location from our voting location, I think this is important info to get out and an not quite sure as to how to go about it, any suggestions,
Early voting was at neighborhood library
Caucus is at the neighborhood Middle School

[grantcart]

8. it would be helpful to go to the library before the caucus and

see if people start showing up there - also leave a note telling people where the caucus is.

[bigbrother05]

9. You are so kind, this ole tired brain is full right now

Thanks again for all your work.

[Scurrilous]

10. K & R

:thumbsup:

[loveangelc]

12. MAKE ME A PROUD TEXAN, TEXAS!!!