"With Michigan and Florida, Obama Will Win Nomination by May 20th"

[Blondiegrrl]

I have no idea how accurate these numbers are (I have a liberal arts degree; I don't do math), but it's an interesting article nonetheless.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080306/cm_huffpost/090169

[jlake]

1. There is an update at the bottom of the article that shows the logic to be flawed.

Until earlier tonight, I would have agreed - but some good DUers corrected me on the math.

[Blondiegrrl]

2. Thanks.

[lapfog_1]

3. Major flaws in the analysis

The first has already been pointed out to the author, namely by adding the Florida and Michigan delegates back into the mix, Obama could get to the "2025" number quicker... however, 2025 is no longer the threshold. it will move to 2208, leaving Obama short again by 183 delegates.

The second is that the author is figuring on a re-vote of some sort, and a more favorable distribution of delegates between Hillary and himself, even though he has Obama losing by 12 points in both races. While it IS true that Obama would pick up SOME delegate in Michigan (where he currently has zero), moving the goalposts of the nomination and giving Hillary any win, no matter how small, makes it harder for Obama to get to the nomination then what is current (0 delegates for either AND the goalposts are closer).

If Obama believes that he could win either or both and gain delegates, then the re-vote makes sense...
If Obama believes that Clinton will have the current "delegates" seated, then a re-vote makes sense...
If Obama believes that the current "delegates" will not be seated, then he should not have the re-vote, even if he believes that he would win the re-vote.

In any event, seating the FL and MI delegate will put him no closer to securing the nomination unless there is a re-vote and he wins.

[joshcryer]

4. To be fair, the goalposts for her to win were stacked against her to begin with. Read my sig.

She has to do a shitload better than Obama to win as many delegates. 1.4 million *more* votes than he, in fact.