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As it stands (notwithstanding superdelegates) Hillary Clinton needs to beat Barak Obama by an average of 24% in the remaining elections to surpass Obama's 141 pledged delegate lead (AP) and win the nomination.
http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter /
If she keeps her 32 superdelegate lead, she needs only an 18% average lead over Barak Obama to beat his 109 total delegate lead.
If Florida and Michigan hold new elections and allow Obama to campaign, Rasmussen projects that Hillary Clinton
would win. In Florida she would gain about 55% of the vote, giving her roughly 108 delegates, and Obama would
lose with only 39% of the vote, gaining 77 delegates. However, they are statistically tied in Michigan, meaning
that Obama would likely split the vote there with Clinton. Therefore, Clinton should gain 31 delegates in this
scenario, which we'll call scenario A.
In scenario A, after the FL and MI re-vote, Clinton will only need a 12% average lead over Obama to secure the democratic nomination.
Florida's election put Hillary Clinton at 49% (105 delegates), Barak Obama at 33% (67 delegates),
with Edwards at 14% (13 delegates). So if Florida is seated as is, Clinton stands to gain a net
of 38 pledged delegates. Michigan's election gave Hillary Clinton 55% of the vote (73 delegates),
and "undeclared" might go for Obama in a settlement, leaving him 40% of the vote and 55 delegates.
So if these delegates are seated as is, Clinton will gain a net of 56 delegates in this scenario,
which we'll call scenario B.
In scenario B, Hillary keeps her superdelegate lead, convinces Howard Dean to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates
as is, and then she wins the remaining races by an average of 8% in each of the remaining elections.
Will "scenario B" occur? If it could occur, would it be advisable? The answer to that is no, and again no.
Democrats agree on fair rules where everybody gets to vote and all the votes get counted:
if you can't agree to that, then you're simply not one of us--no matter who you vote for.
So that leaves the 12% hope of Hillary Clinton in scenario A, which is an almost impossible scenario.
Why hasn't the media divulged this mathematical reality to Hillary Clinton and her supporters? Well... it is complicated math, I'll grant you that. But why isn't the media breaking it down and reporting it as a simple fact?
I suspect that they want us to slug it out in the streets. Should we let them divide our party that way?
No.
Best of luck as you find your way back home to the Democratic Party.